The industry was warning of shortages years ago in the second tier of semi manufacturing. The roller-coaster of semiconductor biz boom and bust has not stopped. The massive investment today is already signaling a coming bust cycle.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/global-chip-shortage-charts#toggle-gdpr

https://markets.businessinsider.com...issed-analyst-estimates-semiconductors-2024-8
Intel plunges 30%, most since 1982, after announcing layoffs and weak guidance

Intel executives pointed to unexpected trends in the most recent quarter to explain how it performed this way even with product milestones.

"Our Q2 financial performance was disappointing, even as we hit key product and process technology milestones," CEO Pat Gelsinger said in a press release. "Second-half trends are more challenging than we previously expected, and we are leveraging our new operating model to take decisive actions that will improve operating and capital efficiencies."

Those operations and efficiency improvements include plans to lay off over 15% of staff by the end of this year, realign structure and operations, and cut operations expenses by over $10 billion next year.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/st...-intel-tumbles-premarket-qHxwJq08UqFYErwomLEQ

Global semiconductor stocks dropped Friday, capping a volatile week for some of the biggest players in this year's rally, and dragging down the Nasdaq Composite.

Intel (INTC) stock crashed by over 25% in early trading, after the chipmaker laid out a $10 billion cost-cut program that will see it slash jobs and halt dividend payouts.

Other U.S. chip stocks also fell. Nvidia (NVDA) shares, which have whipsawed this week, lost more than 4%.

In Asia, equipment heavyweight Tokyo Electron fell 12%, while South Korea's SK Hynix lost 10%.

Japan's SoftBank, the majority owner of U.S.-listed Arm (ARM), shed 8%, weighing on the Nikkei. Arm stock slid, looking to extend the 15% drop it suffered last session after disappointing results.

ASML (ASML) of the Netherlands, another critical maker of semiconductor equipment, also tumbled.

https://forum.allaboutcircuits.com/threads/thoughts-about-uc-shortage.187377/post-1747042

 

Never understood how it works, or who is behind stocks manipulation with what purpose. My last 2 jobs I could not be busier, sales were up, production increased and the stock values went down. Factories closed and everyone kicked to the street.

Perhaps I can only guess... whoever handles stock values are NOT people that work. Are 'tonsills' scratchers all day counting profits all day.

 

the shortage is at the *low* end all those low cost microcontrollers that cost like a dollar or less a pop
there is a sea change that even for very *simple* things that take for example a programmable counter
e.g. 74HC4059
https://www.ti.com/lit/ds/symlink/cd74hc4059.pdf
these days many throw in a microcontroller that is *much much more complex* and actually use the microcontroller for some other purpose as well.
even 'io extenders'
https://www.microchip.com/en-us/product/mcp23017
many could simply throw in a ch32v003
https://www.wch-ic.com/products/CH32V003.html
which has in addition ADCs etc.

 

https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/ne...y-discloses-cyberattack-impacting-operations/
Microchip Technology discloses cyberattack impacting operations

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/mic...n-operations-disrupted-by-cyber-incident.html
Tech
Microchip Technology says certain operations disrupted by cyber incident

This comes at a time when the company is grappling with slowing orders for chips as clients work through excess inventory built up during the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.ph...ufacturing-projects-delayed-in-the-u-s.20827/
Multiple Semiconductor Manufacturing Projects Delayed in the U.S.

 

https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.ph...ufacturing-projects-delayed-in-the-u-s.20827/
Multiple Semiconductor Manufacturing Projects Delayed in the U.S.

Any subsidies they received should be returned back directly to the taxpayers.

 

Any subsidies they received should be returned back directly to the taxpayers.

It will get spent on the next up-cycle.

Why waste it now? What's happening now was a predictable as rain in Oregon. The expansion money will be spent when fab equipment prices, labor are more reasonable and actual demand increases, maybe next year. For now, it's technology upgrades on existing product lines and processes during the lull cycle that's happening. That government money is not paying for that today but will be used for better equipment next year.

https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-...k-the-shape-of-things-to-come-where-we-stand/

You wouldn’t know that the semiconductor industry has been in the doldrums for two years and more from the look of semiconductor stocks but that’s the reality.

The stock market seems to always be a leading indicator of future performance but then again the stocks have been pricey all through the down cycle seemingly anticipating a recovery that was always delayed.

The question now at hand is if 2024 will finally be the recovery that everyone has been anticipating?

So far the signs look OK but certainly not what we would call great and in no way back to the very heady days of crazy spending and expectations.

The very high spend that the industry saw to build capacity after the Covid induced shortage clearly overshot the runway by quite a bit which resulted in the overcapacity induced downcycle that has lasted over 2 years now.

We think chip makers will likely be a bit “gun shy” about spending capex given the length of the downturn.

 

Indeed Joey;
But you know as well as I do, that the companies will reap all the benefits, if any, while the taxpayers carry all the risk.

 

Indeed Joey;
But you know as well as I do, that the companies will reap all the benefits, if any, while the taxpayers carry all the risk.

I was reading through my dusty old copy of the Constitution the other day, and I swear I can't find any clause that authorizes the Federal Government to take my money and give it to someone else.

 

Indeed Joey;
But you know as well as I do, that the companies will reap all the benefits, if any, while the taxpayers carry all the risk.

Tell that to Intel stockholders.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-stock-drops-amid-doubts-214723697.html
Intel Stock Drops Amid Doubts About New Plant in Germany

Stock Performance
Following Thursday's losses, Intel shares are down about 60% so far in 2024.

 

I was reading through my dusty old copy of the Constitution the other day, and I swear I can't find any clause that authorizes the Federal Government to take my money and give it to someone else.

You mean like the soldiers that protect this country?

Just saying.

 

From the same news that you shared;

 

You mean like the soldiers that protect this country?

Just saying.

Are you really this dumb? Or just pretending?

 

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-nvidia-stock-crash-40

Could Nvidia stock (NASDAQ:NVDA) fall to $40 in the next few years from the roughly $120 level it is at currently? Does this sound absolutely ridiculous?

 

It will. Don't worry, I think it has already started to fall (from memory).

 

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-i...cts-leaked-dollar32b-worth-of-samsung-secrets
Former Samsung execs arrested for allegedly using stolen memory tech to build chip factory in China — suspects leaked $3.2B worth of Samsung secrets

 

https://www.npr.org/2024/09/30/nx-s...ne-quartz-microchips-solar-panels-spruce-pine
The conditions at the mines that produce the quartz remain unclear. “We are in a phase of assessing the situation, and it is far too early to comment on the impact to high-purity quartz production,” Mary Kristin Haugen of the Quartz Corporation told NPR in a statement
...
Conway says he believes chipmakers have stocks of ultra-pure quartz that would prevent a short-term supply chain disruption from hobbling production, but he adds that if Spruce Pine remains cut off from the rest of the world for long, it could have a big impact.

 

I think that instead of a shortage, there may be a surplus currently. But where is the surplus?
take a single data point stm32g030f6p6
https://www.aliexpress.com/w/wholesale-stm32g030f6p6.html
supply is pretty good, if anyone is getting this chip, that is really good news.

The catch is, many vendors may be holding inventories. That is 'ok' actually, just that they won't be in a rush to go back to ST to order new ones.

Actually, in these online market places, we'd need to assume that a good fraction of all these is 'drop shipping' i.e. they carry zero stocks, if you place an order with them, they place the order back to back with someone who literally has inventory, probally on
Aliexpress as well. so that 'inventory' is 'virtual'. But nevertheless, it is good to have some 'healthy' stock levels floating in the market.

The thing is the *bigger* market is less observable and it takes effort to do research like such to literally conclude if there is literally a slurplus and that *demand is slowing*

 

By the time the research reports are published, the current boom-bust cycle will be over and the next roller-coaster ride will have started.


https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/bjxi81njyx

Intel employees brace for layoff notices as cuts to move into high gear next week

The layoffs at Intel are set to move into high gear next week. After employees who opted for early retirement officially left the company at the end of September, Intel is continuing its plans to cut back, aiming to complete the layoffs of approximately 15,000 employees by the end of the year.
Managers across Intel's divisions have already submitted to their superiors the names of employees they recommend for layoffs. These employees will soon be notified, many of them as soon as next week, with CEO Pat Gelsinger stating last month that most notices will be issued around mid-October.

https://investorplace.com/2024/06/onsemi-layoffs-2024-what-to-know-as-onsemi-cuts-1000-jobs/
Onsemi Layoffs 2024: What to Know as Onsemi Cuts 1,000 Jobs

https://www.theregister.com/2024/08/05/infineon_announces_layoffs_as_q3/
Infineon announces layoffs as Q3 results disappoint

On and on we go.


Semiconductor Industry Growth (Source KRI, Industry Sources)

https://www.3dincites.com/2024/09/what-is-causing-the-semiconductor-workforce-paradox/
What is Causing the Semiconductor Workforce Paradox?

 

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/10/26/2003825883
TSMC Arizona fab’s yield surpasses its local peers’

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) has achieved early production yields at its first plant in Arizona that surpass similar factories back home, a significant breakthrough for a US expansion project initially dogged by delays and worker strife.

The share of chips manufactured at TSMC’s facility in Phoenix that are usable is about 4 percentage points higher than comparable facilities in Taiwan, Rick Cassidy, president of TSMC’s US division, told listeners on a webinar on Wednesday, according to a person who participated.

The success rate, or yield, is a critical measure in the semiconductor industry because it determines whether companies would be able to cover the enormous costs of a chip plant.

Bravo.