Thoughts about uC shortage

MisterBill2

Joined Jan 23, 2018
27,552
So worldwide supply chain issues have no effect on prices? So oil price gouging has no effect on prices? So employees leaving for better wages, better benefits, better working conditions also has no effect on prices? Corporate greed has no effect on prices? It’s all a conspiracy by the Fed! Who’d of thunk it.
Supply and demand certainly did, and still do, have an effect, especially in our current situation. BUT consider also that the effect of dumping hundreds of millions of unearned dollars into the economy ALSO had quite an effect.
Sort of like two drivers, each with their own gas pedal. And one of them a bit drunk.
Also, the damage done by the federal reserve bankers has been pushing inflation for many years, while the present supply chain problems are quite recent, about two years and a few months.
The Federal reserve bankers have been doing their damage for decades.
 

djsfantasi

Joined Apr 11, 2010
9,237
Supply and demand certainly did, and still do, have an effect, especially in our current situation. BUT consider also that the effect of dumping hundreds of millions of unearned dollars into the economy ALSO had quite an effect.
Sort of like two drivers, each with their own gas pedal. And one of them a bit drunk.
Also, the damage done by the federal reserve bankers has been pushing inflation for many years, while the present supply chain problems are quite recent, about two years and a few months.
The Federal reserve bankers have been doing their damage for decades.
Interesting, since inflation has been trending downwards for the past four decades.
9483E068-2BAC-4862-B850-5F309CA2BA43.jpeg
 

MrSalts

Joined Apr 2, 2020
2,767
Interesting, since inflation has been trending downwards for the past four decades.
That's what you get when you hand out all of those participation trophies and call it a win. Apparently Jerome needs to start putting some effort into his job and pull the inflation lever harder.
 

MisterBill2

Joined Jan 23, 2018
27,552
Interesting, since inflation has been trending downwards for the past four decades.
View attachment 276459
So you believe everything that the government tells you??? And every published statistic??
The method of selected data use to achieve required results is not new.
Aside from that, while the RATE OF INFLATION varies, the prices very seldom drop back to what they had been. EVERY year the cost of living increases, supply and demand have very little to do with that.
 

MrSalts

Joined Apr 2, 2020
2,767
So you believe everything that the government tells you??? And every published statistic??
The method of selected data use to achieve required results is not new.
Aside from that, while the RATE OF INFLATION varies, the prices very seldom drop back to what they had been. EVERY year the cost of living increases, supply and demand have very little to do with that.
"Very Seldom" or "EVERY year"?
Prices dropped and cost of living decreased in 2007-2009 I don't know if that meets your overlapping needs. In any case, would you give back a raise that your employer gave you if the cost of living decreased?
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
16,330
https://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-...lates-major-factory-expansion-in-gresham.html
Microchip makes chips that play an essential supporting role in operating industrial equipment, cars, plans, communication networks, medical tools and many other products. The company said production at its Gresham factory doubled in the pandemic’s first year as Microchip rushed to address a global chip shortage and employment grew to around 680.

The Arizona company has continued expanding since then and said Wednesday it has 150 contractors working to install more than 160 new manufacturing tools inside the existing Gresham factory.

Microchip said it has added 250 employees in the past two years with plans to add 300 more over the next two years. It’s working with Portland Community College and Mt. Hood Community College to prepay tuition and other costs for part-time employees who are earning electronics degrees while working as Microchip technicians.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
16,330
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MisterBill2

Joined Jan 23, 2018
27,552
Part of the reason for the shortage that hit so hard was tha the products used devices that are the latest and greatest cutting edge and so are not multiple sourced. about 30 years ago I learned the hard way that doing that is not a good idea if the design needs to be produced in a timely manner. I was hired to QUICKLY design a replacement package that had previously been designed and production started, but that could not be completed because of a non-available IC, with the single manufacturer having both production yield problems and a large purchase order from the defense department to be filled before any others.
From then on all of my designs use components available from multiple sources. And no more production delays.
 

MrSalts

Joined Apr 2, 2020
2,767
Part of the reason for the shortage that hit so hard was tha the products used devices that are the latest and greatest cutting edge and so are not multiple sourced. about 30 years ago I learned the hard way that doing that is not a good idea if the design needs to be produced in a timely manner. I was hired to QUICKLY design a replacement package that had previously been designed and production started, but that could not be completed because of a non-available IC, with the single manufacturer having both production yield problems and a large purchase order from the defense department to be filled before any others.
From then on all of my designs use components available from multiple sources. And no more production delays.
Sounds logical but, how do you second source a microcontroller? Even if Microchip would have two production lines in two different locations, both locations likely have the same supplier for high-purity dopant gasses, carrier gasses had/or many other key materials in the bill of materials. Risk is risk. Many expensive remedies to address risk are just window-dressing and don't really cut your chances of a supply disruption.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
16,330
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-shrink-in-sign-that-supply-crunch-is-easing
Chip delivery times shrank by four days in September, the biggest drop in years, in a sign that the industry’s supply crunch is easing.
...
A global chip shortage bedeviled a wide range of industries in the past year, with automakers and other manufacturers struggling to get enough semiconductors. Pockets of supply constraints remain, but now many chipmakers are concerned about the opposite problem: chip inventory getting too high.
 

DickCappels

Joined Aug 21, 2008
10,661
That is positive news. The big question is whether semiconductor prices will ever drift back down to where they were or will the just hang around at their new levels and let general inflation catch up?
 

MrSalts

Joined Apr 2, 2020
2,767
That is positive news. The big question is whether semiconductor prices will ever drift back down to where they were or will the just hang around at their new levels and let general inflation catch up?
I have a feeling the fire-sale is coming because they want to sell-down any inventory they built up, and then a new shortage in 4-6 months.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
16,330
https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semiconductro_failure_rates/
The failure rate of semiconductors shipped from China to Russia has increased by 1,900 percent in recent months, according to Russian national business daily Коммерсантъ (Kommersant).

Quoting an anonymous source, Kommersant states that before Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine the defect rate in imported silicon was two percent. Since that war commenced, Russian manufacturers have apparently faced 40 percent failure rates.

Even a two percent defect rate is sub-optimal, because products made of many components can therefore experience considerable quality problems. Forty percent failure rates mean supplies are perilously close to being unfit for purpose.
I feel so bad for them. :D
 
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