Coronavirus?!

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xox

Joined Sep 8, 2017
936
This just makes no sense at all!

[ ... ]

Edit: Unless all the old folk have already died...
Several reasons:

(1) The rate of nationwide testing has been steadily increasing (currently at 700,000+ per day).

(2) Antibody testing (the most common test being performed, by far) can result in false positives due to the fact that they can be be triggered by similar viruses, such as the flu, MERS, SARS, etc.

(3) Testing positive for Covid results in an "infection" being recorded, regardless of the symptoms (or lack thereof). Thus, you may feel perfectly fine and yet nonetheless become a positive statistic. Current studies show that approximately 80% of all positive cases are asymptomatic.

(4) The reliability of test kits in general is questionable, considering how many have been found to be contaminated with Covid in the past. (Sent out to 400+ facilities!)
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
16,328
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/
Without a better plan, this threshold—the percentage of people who have been infected that would constitute herd immunity—seems to have become central to our fates.


Some mathematicians believe that it’s much lower than initially imagined. At least, it could be, if we choose the right future.

Gabriela Gomes studies chaos. Specifically, patterns in nonlinear dynamics. She was drawn to the field by something called frailty variation—why the same diseases manifest so differently from one person to the next. She uses mathematics to deconstruct the chains of events that can lead two people with the same disease to have wildly different outcomes.

So with all its apparently chaotic eccentricities, the coronavirus was an ideal challenge for Gomes, a professor at the University of Strathclyde, in Glasgow, Scotland. For the past few months, she has been collaborating with an international group of mathematicians to run models that incorporate the many variations in how this virus seems to be affecting people. Her goal has been to move as far away from simple averages as possible, and to incorporate as many of the disparate effects of the virus as possible when making new forecasts.
“We just keep running the models, and it keeps coming back at less than 20 percent,” Gomes said. “It’s very striking.”

If that proves correct, it would be life-altering news. It wouldn’t mean that the virus is gone. But by Gomes’s estimates, if roughly one out of every five people in a given population is immune to the virus, that seems to be enough to slow its spread to a level where each infectious person is infecting an average of less than one other person. The number of infections would steadily decline. That’s the classic definition of herd immunity. It would mean, for instance, that at 25 percent antibody prevalence, New York City could continue its careful reopening without fear of another major surge in cases.

It doesn’t make intuitive sense, Gomes admits, but “the homogenous models just don’t make curves that match the current data,” she said. Dynamic systems develop in complex and unpredictable ways, and she believes that the best we can do is continually update models based on what is happening in the real world. She can’t say why the threshold in her models is consistently at or below 20 percent, but it is. “If heterogeneity isn’t the cause,” she said, “then I’d like for someone to explain what is.”
 

MrAl

Joined Jun 17, 2014
13,707
My nearest neighbor is 1/2 mile away.

I continued with my plans. The original builder of the property was quite a partier (i.e., young). There was a sand lot volley ball court in a South field (1993). Over the years, it had fallen into disuse, particularly mine. A few weeks ago, I dug it up. (The ground had been leveled, compacted, covered with plastic sheeting, and had at least 6" of sand over it. The saddest part was when I dug into a turtle's nest. Nothing I could do at that point to save them.) Project for the day was to level the field and prepare for grass -- if we ever get into a rain cycle. Very dry and hot June and July so far. Got done about noon:

View attachment 212184

I did take a bath before fixing lunch.
Oh sorry to hear about the turtles, geeze things go wrong sometimes.

But on the lighter side of life, make sure you sign the "I took a bath" log book next time you take a bath we must keep track of these things :)
 

DickCappels

Joined Aug 21, 2008
10,661
This just makes no sense at all!

View attachment 212161

Edit: Unless all the old folk have already died...
Until recently they did not test very many people, and for months the only ones that were tested had obvious symptoms. Now that the virus is on decline (in places) and tests are readily available they are testing vigorously and finding the patients without severe symptoms who would not have been detected before the increase in testing. All you see in the Main Street Media is the new cases "Look! See how many more cases they have over there now... They opened up too soon!"

Many people and organizations are making money with this and they don't really want it to stop while there is still more money to be made.
 

jpanhalt

Joined Jan 18, 2008
11,087
@justtrying

Everything shown so far about masks has been laboratory models. Those experiments are quite artificial and ignore air currents and habits, to say nothing abut such things as the pathogenic process needed for the virus to infect.

Why are data of incidence among mask wears versus those who don't wear them being suppressed? Why are physicians in many areas being told they cannot ask about wearing masks?

The only study I have seen about masks effectiveness as normally used foolishly used post hoc ergo propter hoc logic to justify its conclusion. Well if that's good for the goose, then how about the gander? Why have spikes in incidence occurred in states with mandatory mask wearing? Promoting a failed intervention does not usually lead to success.

Our Governor is on the news tonight in Ohio. It's really a heart-felt message. Ohioans are strong. They don't give up. We will prevail. Rah, rah. Sincerity is no substitute for substance. His solution was more mandates for failed interventions, not more a logical response.

I'm with Orange County: https://calmatters.org/newsletters/whatmatters/2020/07/orange-county-school-reopening-gavin-newsom/
 

MrAl

Joined Jun 17, 2014
13,707
This quote is ironic from the University of Colorado Hospital by one of the doctors there:

"Furthermore, different viruses behave differently. Influenza or the seasonal flu typically does the greatest harm during the winter months. Experts believe that’s because more people are indoors during colder months and in close contact with one another. But other viruses behave differently. "

Is that ironic or what considering the "lockdowns" forcing people to stay indoors which forces families to stay in close contact all the time.
 

SamR

Joined Mar 19, 2019
5,491
If I were to hazard a guess as to the proper use of masks by the general public I would put it at less than 10%. And that is just for those who even bother to wear one. The concept of "Mask Protocol" is beyond them, even my wife and son who have been instructed by me is the correct usage. It just ain't happening.
 

jpanhalt

Joined Jan 18, 2008
11,087
Or, from a simpler perspective, how can your barber give you a nice single-blade razor trim over your ears if you are wearing a mask FULL time?

My barber is in his late 80's. His hands shake. Been going to him for years. We decided since no enforcement "strike" teams seemed to be in the area, we would take the risk of removing the mask. ;)
 

Reloadron

Joined Jan 15, 2015
7,890
Or, from a simpler perspective, how can your barber give you a nice single-blade razor trim over your ears if you are wearing a mask FULL time?

My barber is in his late 80's. His hands shake. Been going to him for years. We decided since no enforcement "strike" teams seemed to be in the area, we would take the risk of removing the mask. ;)
The mask police gonna get you! You gonna make Governor Mike cry! :)

Ron
 

djsfantasi

Joined Apr 11, 2010
9,237
Or, from a simpler perspective, how can your barber give you a nice single-blade razor trim over your ears if you are wearing a mask FULL time?

My barber is in his late 80's. His hands shake. Been going to him for years. We decided since no enforcement "strike" teams seemed to be in the area, we would take the risk of removing the mask. ;)
You hold the mask on your mouth and nose with one hand. Then, remove one side of the ear strings. Once that side of your head has been cut, swap sides.

That’s how my barber does it.
 

MrAl

Joined Jun 17, 2014
13,707
Geeze guys go out and buy a dang razor for God's sake :)
Get a good electric.

I went to another state far away from home and forgot about shaving and didnt want to bring my electric and did not want to take a razor with me (TSA) i was lucky to find one at the store down the street. I found out later though that the TSA allows regular shaving razors like the disposable ones.

Good idea djs....
 
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