Compare Sweden ("use common sense"):
View attachment 211966View attachment 211961

To US (lockdowns):
View attachment 211965View attachment 211963

It was said early on that lockdowns would only "flatten the curve." They were not expected to decrease the long-term impact. It will be months before we know which was right.

I watch the "daily cases" vs. various locales almost daily -- from an academic POV. Both inside the US and around the world.

I am pretty good at detecting patterns in data. So far, I am completely bemused at how "random" the curves seem.

It's hard for me not to suspect that the reported data is not being massaged prior to reporting. The most obvious is that of China:



Who (pun intended) actually believes the most populous country in the world capped their infection rate to less than ~5K infections per day -- then, within a month, completely eliminated the virus from its population?

My home base (Florida) looks like this:



As far as I can surmise (and data seems to indicate), Wuhan should behave like a "standard" flu -- albeit one in which no one at the start had prior immunity. But we don't have flu here in the summer! The heat, humidity, and sunlight pretty much destroy viruses -- and Wuhan is no exception. I suspect that fear -- people staying home in the cool, dry A/C -- is responsible for driving the numbers up.

The good news is the death rate does not seem to be tracking the infection rate:



This tells me that we've been under-detecting (under-reporting?) actual Wuhan infections from the beginning (or we've been doing a really good job protecting our old-folk in their old-folks homes!).

What's most interesting is that most of the early reporting had shown -- nearly consistantly -- that 5-10% of those tested were positive for Wuhan. Recently, that number has jumped considerably:



This tells me either they are better targeting the likely infected for testing, or b) the tests have either gotten more sensitive or less reliable.

An alternative explanation is that Wuhan has evolved to become simultaneously more contagious and less deadly.

So much of this just doesn't make sense yet, and I suspect that none of us are seeing the real (un-massaged data).

It feels almost like someone wants us to be afraid.

 

...the big thousands and thousands of people with protesting, sharing megaphones, screaming.

Didn't you hear? "Peaceful" protesters are immune to Wuhan.

Only scofflaw law-abiding (is that an oxymoron?) citizens who don't lock themselves in their homes spread the disease.

Edit: those scofflaws also seem to be highly susceptible to death by peaceful protesters.

 

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/9/213185...-testing-children-schools-reopening-questions

Ultimately, when I look at the decision about school as both a father and a scientist, I see a difficult decision that must be made despite uncertainty. The risks of opening are uncertain, but the benefits are clear. We need to try to reopen.


We have been wrong before about Covid-19. In March, the epidemiology world was quite confident that transmission could not occur before a person develops symptoms. Three months later, there is consensus that asymptomatic people were likely one of the main drivers of the pandemic. In March, the CDC and the US surgeon general told the public that masks play no role in controlling the spread of the disease. Now we see masks as a central component of our reopening strategies.


We could be wrong about schools, but we cannot afford to wait to find out for certain. We need school-based Covid-19 symptom screening, testing, contact tracing, and isolation. Opening without a plan to test is irresponsible and a gamble with our children’s health.

 

Didn't you hear? "Peaceful" protesters are immune to Wuhan.

Only scofflaw law-abiding (is that an oxymoron?) citizens who don't lock themselves in their homes spread the disease.

Edit: those scofflaws also seem to be highly susceptible to death by peaceful protesters.

I saw some other "gatherings" on the news recently and these were high up officials, yet not one single mask being worn. I was very, very surprised.

 

"gatherings"

Nice euphemism. "Gatherings of peaceful protesters." Sounds delightful -- tranquil, even.

 

That's surprising. Most of the time all the officials and news people, including Dr. Fauci, put on a mask for photo ops.

 

Nice euphemism. "Gatherings of peaceful protesters." Sounds delightful -- tranquil, even.

Isn't that how the most costly war in America's history began at Fort Sumter?

 

Todays news:



But, dig deeper:



One supposes one can make up any numbers one wants. Just test more or less...

The proper way to read the data: Positivity rate reduced 6% (or 7%) over the last 5 days while testing increased by 315%.

Looks like good news (relatively speaking) to me!

 

Todays news:

View attachment 212027

But, dig deeper:

View attachment 212028

One supposes one can make up any numbers one wants. Just test more or less...

The proper way to read the data: Positivity rate reduced 6% (or 7%) over the last 5 days while testing increased by 315%.

Looks like good news (relatively speaking) to me!

The way the media manipulates numbers to create worry and anxiety (and hence sell more "news") is appalling.

 

Todays news:

View attachment 212027

But, dig deeper:

View attachment 212028

One supposes one can make up any numbers one wants. Just test more or less...

The proper way to read the data: Positivity rate reduced 6% (or 7%) over the last 5 days while testing increased by 315%.

Looks like good news (relatively speaking) to me!

The only numbers that may matter are the deaths. Unfortunately, we know they are exaggerated -- perhaps grossly. Politics as usual.

 

Watch this little 4yo girl voice her frustrations over not being able to go to McDonalds because of the covid 19 "germs". She is just really cute and very articulate for her age, very.

I hope it plays without signing in.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1281259100450566146

 

Watch this little 4yo girl voice her frustrations over not being able to go to McDonalds because of the covid 19 "germs". She is just really cute and very articulate for her age, very.

I hope it plays without signing in.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1281259100450566146

What we are doing to our kids is tantamount to child abuse,

My 13 yo hasn't seen her friends since March. I beg her friends' folks to let them get together, but they (the adults) are all frightened senseless.

Children don't develop well in isolation.

Expect another Millennial generation, but worse.

 

What we are doing to our kids is tantamount to child abuse,

My 13 yo hasn't seen her friends since March. I beg her friends' folks to let them get together, but they (the adults) are all frightened senseless.

Children don't develop well in isolation.

Expect another Millennial generation, but worse.

I've found that fear to be increasingly cultural. Some of my 15 yo kid school friends are from Eastern European cultures. They are much better at accessing the real virus risks than cultural Americans so my daughter has outdoor activities with them and continues her martial arts studies with prudent precautions.

 

Eliminating a percentage of our workforce + reducing expenditures of consumer market, plunging us down, question is who wins if this is all a calculated measure to expand exports and minimize personal one on one risk of confronting the U.S in direct market competition? Am I just not getting it or what?

kv

 

 

One good thing to come out of this CV episode ....... a drastic reduction in the number of junk phone calls received .

 

This just makes no sense at all!



Edit: Unless all the old folk have already died...

 

This just makes no sense at all!

View attachment 212161

Edit: Unless all the old folk have already died...

The way i understand it now is that although the number of cases is going up the number of deaths is going down because they are mostly younger people and they have better ways of treating the sickness that develops. The MSM does not like to mention this relationship they concentrate on the worse possible way of describing the progress of the virus.

 

hi Al,
Have you seen the case histories of these younger people after recovery from the virus illness.?
Some sound very unpleasant and long lasting.
Also we do not know the possible later in life problems this virus can cause.

E

 

This just makes no sense at all!

View attachment 212161

Edit: Unless all the old folk have already died...

Of course it makes no sense at all, because there is no attribution. Just going by the titles, it could not even be COVID-19