Coronavirus?!

SamR

Joined Mar 19, 2019
2,016
Well... There is nothing you can do about it except go about masked and don't touch anything. The global Flu pandemic of 1917-20 killed a few tens of millions and sickened hundreds of millions. Now with an even more globally mobile society... Viruses are nasty and mutate fast. We kinda have a handle on HIV after nearly 50 years with billions of dollars spent and nada on the common cold.
 

402DF855

Joined Feb 9, 2013
194
I was working in Beijing around the SARS incident. Hysteria seems MUCH worse this time probably due to a vast increase in information flow via internet and social media.

Over the weekend it looked like the stock market would tank, but seems to have been just a blip. When a death gets reported in the US I suppose the market will take a bigger hit.
 

dl324

Joined Mar 30, 2015
10,496
Is it time to panic yet? If no, when?
It depends on your exposure. I don't hang around a lot of people traveling to/from China, so I'm not worried. For that matter, I don't hang around large groups of people. The last time was 6 weeks ago and that was the first time in a couple years that I was around more than a half dozen or so.

From what I gather, the mortality rate isn't anywhere near 100%, so I'd be more afraid of contracting Ebola. The chances of that happening are even more remote, so I'm not all that worried about that either.
 

Thread Starter

Hamlet

Joined Jun 10, 2015
278
My "panic" threadstarter was just that, a thread-starter. I am not panicking, but I'm not qualified to determine if I should or not.
However, it appears to be quite infective, transmissible when asymptomatic, a high R0. Of those infected, 20% become seriously ill, and 2% die (those numbers are from CDC conference this morning.) I don't see why it couldn't sustain in outbreaks around the world, which would qualify the Coronavirus as a pandemic. I suppose, in a week or two, we'll all be able to judge the ultamate trajectory of this novel virus. I am concerned about a supply-chain break.
 

wayneh

Joined Sep 9, 2010
16,384
Would it help?
That's the heart of the question. Panic is absolutely warranted, if it would do any good. Governments seem to favor calm sheep and keep telling us not to panic. That worries me a lot, because it implies less than all out efforts are being made. It's quite possible that millions will die even IF we were to go all out. So this lackadaisical "don't panic" approach may look really stupid in a few months when the survivors have the clarity of hindsight and wish that much more had been done when we still had the chance.

Staying away from crowds and airports seems prudent. Take a multivitamin, get plenty of sleep. Are these precautions "panic"?
 

jpanhalt

Joined Jan 18, 2008
9,064
I don't think our government has been lackadaisical at all. Here is a link to to the US CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

One should note that information from China is particularly sparse, and it has refused our help. Why? Was it an accidental release from a government laboratory?

I have a lot of faith in the CDC and major private laboratories in the US. If you remember during the anthrax scare quite awhile back, American laboratories were the first to develop a reliable test for it and led in finding that ciprofloxacin could be used for treatment. I think we will also lead in addressing the newest coronavirus, but those efforts will take time.
 

wayneh

Joined Sep 9, 2010
16,384
I don't think our government has been lackadaisical at all.
FWIW, I was referring to a public official in Chicago that I heard on the local news. She gave a mostly-factual statement but seemed intent on telling us not to worry and to not panic. That seemed out of place.
 

jpanhalt

Joined Jan 18, 2008
9,064
True, telling someone not to panic will more often elicit panic than prevent it. It's like saying, "This may seem complex, but it really isn't." That immediately raises a barrier to understanding.

Lackadaisical coming in the same paragraph as "Governments seem..." led me to think you were referring to our Federal government. As for what some some public official in Chicago says, I am happy if it is in English.
 

SamR

Joined Mar 19, 2019
2,016
The CDC is very active. They tested the plane full of evacuees twice on landing in Alaska and rerouted them to a military base in California for quarantine. Plus had doctors onboard in China to evaluate them en route home.
 

Thread Starter

Hamlet

Joined Jun 10, 2015
278
That's the heart of the question. Panic is absolutely warranted, if it would do any good. Governments seem to favor calm sheep and keep telling us not to panic. That worries me a lot, because it implies less than all out efforts are being made. It's quite possible that millions will die even IF we were to go all out. So this lackadaisical "don't panic" approach may look really stupid in a few months when the survivors have the clarity of hindsight and wish that much more had been done when we still had the chance.

Staying away from crowds and airports seems prudent. Take a multivitamin, get plenty of sleep. Are these precautions "panic"?
I like your philosophically prudent assessment. Panic may undermine state control, but in lieu of proper training, panic probably served our ancestors well. Decisions we make today are more important, as they can have knock-on effects far into the future. Maybe today I "panic" and stock up on canned beans, so I can stay inside for the next weeks, stay alive, and be ready to make more decisions next year. If I'm dead in a month from now, my decision making days are over.
 

dl324

Joined Mar 30, 2015
10,496
From what I've read, there's no need to panic. The fatality rate is low. Thousands of people die from the flu in the US every year.
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People have recovered from the outbreak of concern. The death rate climbs in spurts, but that's likely a reporting issue and/or propaganda campaign.
 

SamR

Joined Mar 19, 2019
2,016
The ones that are panicking are the chinese but their government tends to do that to control the masses. Can you imagine the US quarantining an entire state?
 
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