Coronavirus?!

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jpanhalt

Joined Jan 18, 2008
11,087
In the past few days, reports have indicated an unusually large percentage of cases of coronavirus infection presented with diarrhea instead of flu-like symptoms (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ransmit-along-fecal-oral-route-xinhua-reports ). Early on, it was assumed coronavirus infection occurred mostly through the respiratory route and the fecal-oral route was rare.

Those newer results indicate the fecal-oral may be more common than suspected. Other microbes/diseases spread by that route (e.g., cholera, Clostridium difficile -- both bacterial, not viral --, and Enterovirus ) can be difficult to control even in hospital settings. That new finding certainly raises concerns.
 

jpanhalt

Joined Jan 18, 2008
11,087
Yes, deaths from the new coronavirus are running about 2%. It is difficult to compare that death rate to flu (influenza) deaths in the US, as the CDC doesn't require reporting of flu for adults. Through various other measures, the CDC estimates that in the the past 10 years infection rates have varied from 9 million to 45 million cases per year and deaths of 12,000 (2011-2012) to 56,000 (2012-2013) per year. By comparison, 2% of 9 million is 180,000 and 2% of 45 million is 900,000.

Of course, we have no idea of what the infection rate in the US will eventually be. So far, it is insignificant compared to the flu. However, as I indicated above, if fecal-oral is a significant route of infection, it is a concern.
 

Analog Ground

Joined Apr 24, 2019
460
According to the CDC, seasonal flu death rates in the USA are around 0.12% of cases. "Seasonal flu" are the normal, everyday cases. Let's say the current death rate for coronavirus is 2.5% or 20 times greater. There are roughly 30,000,000 cases of the flu each year in the USA. If the coronavirus became a pandemic and simply doubled the number of flu cases, this means the additional deaths of over 700,000 people. It would also result in more than twice the number of hospitalizations. The effect on the health care system and the economy would be huge. I don't know about elsewhere but in my locale, the large regional hospital is completely full all the time now. Without timely and active intervention, these kinds of numbers are very possible or worse.
 

dl324

Joined Mar 30, 2015
18,327
Without timely and active intervention, these kinds of numbers are very possible or worse.
That's the key. We need to take the threat seriously, but there's no need to panic (yet).

The US has instituted 14 day quarantines for some people. In some cases it's voluntary and in others it's involuntary. People traveling from China are only allowed in the country if they pass a relationship test. I think it's immediate family or maybe a little looser. It doesn't affect me, so I didn't pay that much attention to details.
 

MrAl

Joined Jun 17, 2014
13,704
Just walk softly and carry a big brick.
It's not time to panic just yet, wait a few seconds.........
Ok now it is ok to panic.
:)
 

killivolt

Joined Jan 10, 2010
836
Today vs. Tuesday coronavirus, has begun to build. Because of containment, those coming into contact, if fecal matter is an issue well? you don't know what you eat sometimes. A bacterial infection would be more likely a candidate, unfortunately we don't know fully, if thats the smoking gun.

The hantavirus was equally illusive a animal to human, fecal infection (Look it up), but it became more illusive. In a short time it was person to person (Killing care workers without exclusion of others), but without research I don't know the causation of the person to person exposure to create the transmission, which allows it to continue to mutate, thus it is a possible strain to create the global pandemic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthohantavirus

Human infections of hantaviruses have almost entirely been linked to human contact with rodent excrement; however, in 2005 and 2019, human-to-human transmission of the Andes virus was reported in South America.
If (like the Hantavirus) we have that type of exposure issue (unknown) then containment is very important to close the loops of its person to person transmission, if we can (Contain) to do so might mitigate it. Keeping at the epicenter and shut it down before it can grow into a threat on a global scale.

kv
 
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