Coronavirus?!

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nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
16,326
Yet. Drugs are coming sooner and may work well enough to get this nightmare out of the news. More wild-eyed optimism, perhaps. We'll see.
I've used some variation in Africa of the treatments (they won't stop you from getting the disease) for the Coronavirus using malaria drugs. Chloroquine compounds side-effects can be nasty.
 

DickCappels

Joined Aug 21, 2008
10,661
A post that criticized an appointed government official and an elected official in a government has been removed.

It will be difficult for many of us to avoid bringing politics into the discussion but please stick to the topic and try not to give in to the urge to start side discussions of the competence of political figures in our respective countries.
 
The political dirt's already coming out and there are people in high places that sold off millions in stock just 6 weeks before this crisis hit:

(A link to political content has been deleted by a moderator.)

Pardon me for sounding like a conspiracy theorist, but in my opinion, the corona virus is an excuse for a multi $trillion bailout just like 2008. After the big business community walks away with their a pockets full of money, this crisis will magically disappear in about 3 months.
 
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The political dirt's already coming out and there are people in high places that sold off millions in stock just 6 weeks before this crisis hit:

(A link to political content has been deleted by a moderator.)

Pardon me for sounding like a conspiracy theorist, but in my opinion, the corona virus is an excuse for a multi $trillion bailout just like 2008. After the big business community walks away with their a pockets full of money, this crisis will magically disappear in about 3 months.
Bailouts will not kill the virus. So, if the pandemic disappears in 3 months, it is because of public health actions. However, politicians are definitely licking their chops and all giddy at the opportunity to spend $Trillions. To borrow a phrase "This is the big one".
 
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MrAl

Joined Jun 17, 2014
13,704
Hi,

Well now New Jersey is in lockdown also. Murphy announced it yesterday i think.
This means dont go out for any reason that is not important.
Some of the things on the list that are good reasons to go out are:
Non restrictions:
• Grocery stores, farmer's markets and farms that sell directly to customers, and other food stores, including retailers that offer a varied assortment of foods comparable to what exists at a grocery store;
• Pharmacies and medical marijuana dispensaries;
• Medical supply stores;
• Gas stations;
• Convenience stores;
• Ancillary stores within healthcare facilities;
• Hardware and home improvement stores;
• Banks and other financial institutions;
• Laundromats and dry-cleaning services;
• Stores that principally sell supplies for children under five years;
• Pet stores;
• Liquor stores;
• Car dealerships, but only for auto maintenance and repair, and auto mechanics;
• Printing and office supply shops;
• Mail and delivery stores.
 
I notice the article seems to downplay the Imperial College papers critique of the suppression strategy by saying "Hammer is weeks, not months".
I played around with the epidemic calculator linked in the article. Very interesting. As the author says, it is all about R0. It makes intuitive sense. If everyone is not infectious after two weeks (by being cured, dead or totally isolated) then the epidemic stops in two weeks. This is the South Korea experience. The question is how big is the Hammer and how small is R0 after intervention. The chart showing steps to reduce R0 at the end of the article is key to the authors thinking.
 
Hi,

Well now New Jersey is in lockdown also. Murphy announced it yesterday i think.
This means dont go out for any reason that is not important.
Some of the things on the list that are good reasons to go out are:
Non restrictions:
• Grocery stores, farmer's markets and farms that sell directly to customers, and other food stores, including retailers that offer a varied assortment of foods comparable to what exists at a grocery store;
• Pharmacies and medical marijuana dispensaries;
• Medical supply stores;
• Gas stations;
• Convenience stores;
• Ancillary stores within healthcare facilities;
• Hardware and home improvement stores;
• Banks and other financial institutions;
• Laundromats and dry-cleaning services;
• Stores that principally sell supplies for children under five years;
• Pet stores;
• Liquor stores;
• Car dealerships, but only for auto maintenance and repair, and auto mechanics;
• Printing and office supply shops;
• Mail and delivery stores.
This "restriction" list includes everything and more that I would normally do. This is not a lock down. It's a shopping list.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
16,326
I played around with the epidemic calculator linked in the article. Very interesting. As the author says, it is all about R0. It makes intuitive sense. If everyone is not infectious after two weeks (by being cured, dead or totally isolated) then the epidemic stops in two weeks. This is the South Korea experience. The question is how big is the Hammer and how small is R0 after intervention. The chart showing steps to reduce R0 at the end of the article is key to the authors thinking.
R0 is small because of isolation, the virus is just as contagious to the general population. My worry is we still won't have adequate herd immunity to stop a reflash from reservoirs of the virus like the mass of critical workers who are not isolated during the hammer unless we test and monitor that group for spread.
 
R0 is small because of isolation, the virus is just as contagious to the general population. My worry is we still won't have adequate herd immunity to stop a reflash from reservoirs of the virus like the mass of critical workers who are not isolated during the hammer unless we test and monitor that group for spread.
Absolutely! The Dance depends on monitoring, isolation and, later, vaccination. South Korea has been testing and isolating from the start. As for the U.S., not looking good so far. A lot of people asking "Where's my money?" and politicians bickering about how to spread it around. The real focus should be on how to implement an effective testing and tracking system after a total, nationwide shutdown. Then, we know how to get herd immunity with vaccination. In this case, the "natural" way is not good.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
16,326
Absolutely! The Dance depends on monitoring, isolation and, later, vaccination. South Korea has been testing and isolating from the start. As for the U.S., not looking good so far. A lot of people asking "Where's my money?" and politicians bickering about how to spread it around. The real focus should be on how to implement an effective testing and tracking system after a total, nationwide shutdown. Then, we know how to get herd immunity with vaccination. In this case, the "natural" way is not good.
The natural way is not good but a realistic hope for a safe and effective vaccine is 18 month. Nature will have its way on us by then. Many health experts say, eventually in the 18 months, most of us will be infected.
https://kfor.com/health/coronavirus...mates-40-to-80-of-state-will-get-coronavirus/
“All we’re trying to do is slow the spread, but it will spread. It is that contagious,” he said, adding most people will overcome the illness unless they’re older or have an underlying condition.

Dr. James Phillips, a CNN medical analyst and assistant professor of emergency medicine at The George Washington University, agrees with Cuomo’s assessment of the virus’ potential to spread, he told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Sunday.
 
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I was hoping the steel for my project would get to the supplier before this happened. So I had something to keep me busy at home. But guess will have to do something else, since the supplier said Tue or Wed.
My wife is putting up window and door moulding in our remodel. She needs more moulding. The lumber yard said "Maybe, I'll have to check. It comes from Pittsburgh".
 
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