Definitely. I bought a bit more when it fell even farther to the ~235 area. Could be a bargain, or catching the falling knife at the wrong spot.

I hope you will be OK with your position and wish you luck.

Personally, I think there is more agony to come. My broad view is from noting that it seems that Elon has seemingly lost the ability to move the market and rally the faithful with his predictions of wonderful things to come. The Model Y reveal was a bust. The 'Autonomy Will Set You Free' presentation presaged a serious drop in the stock price. Ugly Q1 results didn't help. The market is not buying it any more. They want results.

Now we hear that Semi production has been pushed to 2020. Nobody knows where it, or the Y, will be built. Further, on the Earnings call, Musk noted that the logistics problems of shipping cars overseas were the hardest imaginable. Nonsense. Real companies with real managers know how to do that. Dust-ups with Panasonic are not helping, either.

But Elon/Tesla asserts that they will have one MILLION (finger to cheek) Teslas running around on the Tesla Network (an App) that will be so wonderful that your Model 3 will sneak out of your garage (it knows the door code and hey, 'summon' mode), go FullSelfDriving and run around town earning you money. Musk said that makes Teslas an 'appreciating asset' (OK , really??) and that Lyft and Uber will presumably be toast because they have to pay drivers. One million Tesla taxis. Driverless. Next year. With Tesla insurance.

Got it!

My take: in retrospect, it's easy to be a 'genius' when you have the markets throwing money at you. It's different now. Jonas at Morgan Stanley says Tesla needs to raise 2.5B to continue. Good luck with all of that. Reality has intervened at Tesla. Regardless of how you think demand, margins, and how vaporware is valued, they're in trouble and when that happens, it takes competent management to survive. I don't think they have it.

Good luck!

FWIW: Sentry mode is pretty cool:
https://electrek.co/2019/04/26/tesla-sentry-mode-capturing-crazier-thing/

 

Personally, I think there is more agony to come.

You're probably right. I'm hoping for a dead cat bounce in the short term but otherwise I don't see much to drive the stock up in the next few months. They need to hang on and execute and hopefully release those new products. You know, actually deliver stuff. Credibility is strained.

 

Battery Technology needs to improve, I think he is working with software to improve sales but in the end cost of batteries will break the check book of many blue collar workers. I'm still driving 2 92 vehicles, both V8 gas guzzlers a ford F250 3/4 ton with a 460 cubic inch, if you go 10 miles, you see the needle drop. It only see's a trip to the Garbage dump 2 times a year.

Same issue with my Lexus SC400 all be it, mint condition V8 3969 cc. (242.203 cu in), I solved that problem by purchasing my home years ago to be able to drive to work within 3 minutes. Fuel cost is $43 in gas for 2 weeks. While the price of my property continually goes up because of the much desired location of the home, I'm making money at the end of the day. But, to spend that on a Tesla even at 30+k isn't going to make me want one, even if it drives itself. Big deal.

He can keep them until he solves the Battery issue. Otherwise it's just a status symbol.

kv

 

He can keep them until he solves the Battery issue. Otherwise it's just a status symbol.

Not if you care about total cost instead of just purchase price. Tesla's are already cost competitive in terms of TCO with 'normal' sedans such as Toyota Camry and Honda Accord. Their benefits start showing up after the first few years of ownership. They remain virtually maintenance-free for a million miles. No brake jobs (they have brakes, but don't place nearly as much wear on them), no exhaust, much fewer drivetrain parts and on and on. This is why the big car makers are trying to catch up. They may win, but Tesla has a big lead for now.

 

Not if you care about total cost instead of just purchase price. Tesla's are already cost competitive in terms of TCO with 'normal' sedans such as Toyota Cary and Honda Accord. Their benefits start showing up after the first few years of ownership. They remain virtually maintenance-free for a million miles. No brake jobs (they have brakes, but don't place nearly as much wear on them), no exhaust, much fewer drivetrain parts and on and on. This is why the big car makers are trying to catch up. They may win, but Tesla has a big lead for now.

I get that a million miles is impressive, but this is what worries me.

What happens when the name "Tesla" begins to curse them. It may well follow the

Spoiler

"https://www.maxim.com/rides/brand-new-delorean-coming-soon-2018-1"

If the company tanks, will the cars just loose because nobody is making them? The above is an example of money down the drain, I wouldn't drive the above because the design needs an upgrade, the upgrade will cost money to retool and design.

Elon, isn't the one that will make the company rise, after reading @JohnInTX post, I feel money is better spent on his other enterprises, like the solar market for homes. I'm seriously thinking when I retire to rent my home and let the rent pay me back for the improvements, install panels on the rear south facing and invert that money back to the power company, in the end, I'm making money once again. The Delorean was a pipe dream, I think if Elons investments elsewhere can make money, then revisit this sometime in the future.

I would invest my money at that point. New battery technologies are in the near future I feel that investment is worth money to us all.


kv

 

I'm pretty sure the Association will have a insurance option by then and the rich won't care.
http://humandriving.org/

Long before any possible future of universal mandated self-driving I'm pretty sure my hands will already be as stated. I expect a long period where cars are almost but not quite autonomous.

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/a...r-the-right-to-drive?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Broussard has a term for the insistence that computers can do everything better than humans can: technochauvinism. “Most of the autonomous-vehicle manufacturers are technochauvinists,” she said. “The big spike in distracted-driving traffic accidents and fatalities in the past several years has been from people texting and driving. The argument that the cars themselves are the problem is not really looking at the correct issue. We would be substantially safer if we put cell-phone-jamming devices in cars. And we already have that technology.” Like Roy, she strongly disputes both the imminence and the safety of driverless technology. “There comes a point at which you have to divorce fantasy from reality, and the reality is that autonomous vehicles are two-ton killing machines. They do not work as well as advocates would have you believe.”

 

I tend to agree. Anyone that's done any programming and then gone through the debugging process knows that even simple tasks can easily fail for a very wide number of reasons. Type mismatches, unexpected behavior by the user, time-outs in other parts of the code, and on and on and on. You never really get it perfect, you just get the failure rate so low that it's acceptable. I don't see how something as complex as an autonomous vehicle will be any different.

Jut remember how low the bar is, though. They don't need to be better than an Indy driver. They just need to be better than a distracted, or sleepy, or drunk, or teenager driver. The bottom half of the bell curve that are probably responsible for 90% of accidents.

 

I am leasing a 2018 Equinox, every so many days when driving a warning comes on the radio screen, about not looking at your devices and being a distracted driver. and will make a beeping until you look at it and touch a box saying you got the message. I guess all they mean is don't look at your phone, but the cars message is OK.

 

They don't need to be better than an Indy driver.

But what does an Indy driver do? Mash the gas and turn left. Not very difficult and accidents are expected. I would say it’s a lot harder to drive in normal traffic where accidents are not tolerated. And as you suggested programs don’t do well in chaotic situations. And the roads will need major upgrades to allow for autonomous cars to enter and exit safely. We can’t even fix the potholes. This is all a fantasy designed to make money on wall street.

 

And as you suggested programs don’t do well in chaotic situations.

That wasn't really my point and in fact I favor the computer when speed and multiple factors are involved. I was just saying that perfection is not a reasonable goal. Humans are far from perfect and it won't be too hard to do better than many of them. Getting an AI that's better than all drivers all the time is really tough and will take decades.

I was just thinking of a booboo I made driving once: I meant to turn onto a frontage road but in the dark I turned a few yards early and found myself heading the wrong way down an exit ramp towards the interstate. There was cross traffic behind me and coming at me. The ramp was narrow, making a U-turn more difficult. This was not a terribly difficult situation to get out of but it involved judging whether the oncoming truck could see me and was slowing to allow my escape by a u-turn. If I had thought he didn't see me, I would have had to pull over and wait for an opening. All this would be really tough for an AI unless the programmers spend a LONG time on training the AI about "events". Ice on bridges, the way slush on the side of the road can grab your wheels, road construction flagmen, and zillion other contingencies.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/22/don...-to-buy-tesla-morgan-stanleys-adam-jonas.html

Tesla’s stock is down 15% since last Thursday, and dropped 6% on Wednesday to under $193. The slide began last week after an e-mail surfaced in which Tesla CEO Elon Musk urged employees to cut spending and told them he would personally oversee outgoing expenses.

 

https://www.wired.com/story/las-vegas-orders-up-boring-company-loop/

According to a contract posted by the Convention Center’s board prior to Wednesday’s vote, the Boring Company agreed to a number of provisions, just in case it fails to complete its work. The contract requires it to take out a payment recovery bond, which would repay the Convention Center Authority if BoCo does not complete its project. The Boring Company would also have to shell out approximately $1.6 million to “close and secure” an unfinished project. According to the contract, the company would receive just over half of its payment after construction is completed, 70 percent after testing and commissioning, and the full payment only after it demonstrates it can daily move at least 4,400 people each hour.

Sounds like Boring jobs in Viva Las Vegas.
https://www.boringcompany.com/jobs/

 

Kinda off the subject of Tesla, but Uber and Lyft have gone public and their initial stock prices are about 7.5% below their predicted value.

Furthermore, both of these companies have never turned a profit - Yet they are valued in the billions. So there you have the financial equivalent of the Twilight Zone - Investors pouring big bucks into essentially worthless companies.

Unfortunately, the entire economy of the San Francisco Bay Area is based on this Ponzie Scheme and it's a matter of time before the whole mess crashes.

 

Ouch.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stocks-bear-case-is-10-morgan-stanley-says-2019-05-21

 

Ouch.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stocks-bear-case-is-10-morgan-stanley-says-2019-05-21

I'll take all they want to sell me at $10. Hell, I'll even sweeten it to $11.

 

I'll take all they want to sell me at $10. Hell, I'll even sweeten it to $11.

I'm thinking of investing in wall-paper. Just under $10 a square foot.

 

I always try to wait until all the early adopters fund the development before I buy in... I hope I get a chance to own a Tesla in the future... they're so cool. I love gasoline but when I've seen them drag race supercars towings supercars behind the Tesla and win (on Top Gear) I knew I had to have one eventually.

The range and charge time is an issue but for 98% of time for the daily commute and runs it's really not a problem for a majority of the population... including me. Will need to keep my gas guzzlers for road trips.

Harley has an EV bike out... not sure how I feel about that yet... sure it'll be fast... maybe it's for the next generation.

Tesla is taking a beating on Wall Street but hope it recovers. He's his own worst enemy... great guy, means well, but too impulsive...

Let's hope if this survives they don't choke all the fun out of them too. Time will tell which way it goes from here.

 

Tesla will survive but it might be without Elon at the helm.

 

Tesla will survive but it might be without Elon at the helm.

I tend to agree. I think he's still a critical asset for now but the company should soon become "a company", a well-oiled machine that can make money cranking out cars with minimal disruption except growth. That stage would frankly bore a guy like Musk and be a waste of his talents. Plus, it requires a different set of talents. Think of Tim Cook at Apple. He's nothing like Musk but apparently is an efficient manager capable of running an innovative company. Tesla will need someone like that soon and it's not really what Musk is good at.

 

While not really about Telsa, but Elon Musk must be suffering from midlife crisis... This is not good for the company

https://nationalpost.com/entertainm...ue-light-from-her-vision-leaving-fans-baffled