How much longer before we see $60 oil?

Part of the answer depends on the value of the dollar rather than the relative price of the oil. The dollar has lost ~12% in the last year. That's not all bad since it helps up sell stuff internationally, but makes oil seem more pricey. Of course if we're a net seller in the oil market, that's OK too.

 

How much longer before we see $60 oil?

It seems OPEC had no clue either.

Top OPEC officials surely did not expect such a dramatic run up in prices, at least not this early in the year. Both OPEC and the IEA have forecasted a rebound in crude storage levels in the first half of this year, a trend that was thought to keep a lid on any price rally. The working assumption was that oil prices wouldn’t dramatically improve until mid-2018.

 

Two articles today:

Oil World Turns Upside Down as U.S. Sells Oil in Middle East

Crude Tumbles as Record U.S. Output Stokes Oversupply Anxieties

Oil prices of late have been relatively high since those of a year ago, but not nearly as high as before the "fracking revolution".

Our fracking wildcatters are responding to the pricing, and quickly. As long as they are left unfettered to drill and pump, I don't think we'll be seeing exceptionally high prices for a long time.

In fact, as US production continues to increase -- and efficiencies due to scale and technology improvements also increase -- I think we will be shortly seeing some historically low oil prices.

This is a good (great!) thing.

 

This is a good (great!) thing.

you tell that to the Venezuelans ...

jokes aside, I think too that is a good thing. And it allows more time to research alternative and cleaner sources of energy. I just hope that the low prices don't discourage the companies doing that sort of research.

 

you tell that to the Venezuelans ...

How's this for cold, heartless, thoroughly objective take: they deserve to get the government they voted for...good and hard.

 

I just hope that the low prices don't discourage the companies doing that sort of research.

Why would you want capital directed opposite of its most effective use?

The magic of unfettered capitalism is that money goes where it is needed most -- and does the most good for the most people.

 

How's this for cold, heartless, thoroughly objective take: they deserve to get the government they voted for...good and hard.

At first glance, I'd agree with you ... but nobody deserves to be betrayed by their own government the way they have been... but let's keep politics out of this ...

 

Why would you want capital directed opposite of its most effective use?

The magic of unfettered capitalism is that money goes where it is needed most -- and does the most good for the most people.

And I also agree with that ... just as long as foresight is applied and one doesn't wait until the last moment to correct things

 

just as long as foresight is applied and one doesn't wait until the last moment to correct things

What things?

When the there is a cost benefit to renewables, the market will quickly drive their development.

Unless you'd rather governments direct the capital? Then we're back to Venezuela.

 

but nobody deserves to be betrayed by their own government the way they have been...

They voted for Chavismo. The results of which were predictable and predicted.

 

What things?

Pollution and public health effects comes to mind.

Unless you'd rather governments direct the capital?

God forbid... no

 

They voted for Chavismo. The results of which were predictable and predicted.

I have an answer for that ... but not here. I don't want to see this thread locked.

 

Pollution and public health effects comes to mind.

I could argue this. But I don't have time.

God forbid... no

You really can't have it both ways.

 

So getting back to the original proposition. Peak oil ain’t happening. At my recent retirees gathering my CEO was totally optimistic for production going forward. Western Australian gas is going great, Kazakhstan also. There is no reduction in demand. Some idiots like in New York are claiming to get out of oil, but how are those buses going to run?

 

Who was the first fracker?

Spoiler: Click to find out

Ellis Wyatt, 1957

“He thought of the oil wells spouting a black stream that ran over a continent almost faster than the trains of the Phoenix-Durango could carry it. That oil field had been only a rocky patch in the mountains of Colorado, given up as exhausted long ago.”

Courtesy of Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand.

 

Courtesy of Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand.

BTW, per your suggestion, I bought that book a few months ago. It's on my waiting list, and I'll probably start reading it in a few weeks. I'll be back with my comments later on, if I have any.

 

Some idiots like in New York are claiming to get out of oil, but how are those buses going to run?

They're going to run on electricity made somewhere outside of the city. The conversion of city buses to all-electric is happening quickly because it makes terrific sense. Of course you still need to make electricity from something. Natural gas is big in the Midwest but I'm not sure where it comes from in New York.

 

The conversion of city buses to all-electric is happening quickly because it makes terrific sense

Mind elaborating?

 

Mind elaborating?

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/10/24/16519364/electric-buses

I think the conversion will accelerate rapidly for several reasons all converging. Battery costs are coming down, and maintenance costs for electric buses are far lower than conventional diesel buses. It will very soon be total no-brainer to buy electric and border on malfeasance to buy diesel. There might be room for natural gas buses to get their share, but electric will probably win.

 

Mind elaborating?

Another view, just out.
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-En...ll-Public-Buses-Will-Be-Electric-By-2025.html