It's simpler if you just design the circuit to guarantee the transistor will be saturated.This is complicated.
Once the switch is ON, R1 and Q1 have a voltage drop based on Ic. And D1 has a voltage drop based on its color, 2-3v. And then there’s the whole gain factor, also based on Ic, which goes back to the base current, voltages.
This is probably beyond the class level and my ability to teach it. Although we should be able to simulate it in Eagle spice.
Using values from your schematic. If you assume a voltage drop of 2V for the LED and a saturation voltage of 0V, that leaves 7V across a 470 ohm resistor. That gives you a current of about 15mA. If the voltage drop on the LED is higher, which it will be, and the collector-emitter saturation voltage will be greater than 0V, then the maximum current through the LED will be less than 15mA. If you provide at least 1.5mA of base current, the transistor will be operating in saturation mode.
By assuming worst case values, you can do the calculations in one iteration.
The problem is that the 10k resistor you have on the base will only provide about 0.83mA, so it needs to be smaller. 4.7k would be a safe value (assuming a 5% tolerance resistor). 5.1k would give you 1.6mA, but a resistor on the high range of the tolerance (5.36k) would only give you 1.55mA. That would be cutting it a bit close so we'd choose to drive the base a little harder than necessary to guarantee saturation.




