@justtrying , Your desire to accept unproven theories/speculations that South Asian public has greater immunity but you doubt science related to masks concerns me.

 

@justtrying , Your desire to accept unproven theories/speculations that South Asian public has greater immunity but you doubt science related to masks concerns me.

I am concerned with continuing outbreaks in care homes where staff is suppossedly practicing proper hygiene and wearing masks and other PPE. No other visitors are allowed and residents do not go out. So what failed?

I dont question science on masks. Science on masks is inconclusive.

The numbers for COVID are garbage. This is replacing the global warming. BTW, is global warming still a thing? Or did the virus solve it also?

 

Yup, we are all going to die before the planet warms up.

 

I am concerned with continuing outbreaks in care homes

It really depends on the care home and there are very good ones and absolutely the pits of hell ones. Private assisted care (expensive) tends to be the better ones but there is no guarantee. My experience with relatives in homes and hospitals is there needs to be an active advocate to ensure proper care. It sorta comes down to how dedicated the staff is and not just the management oversight and regulations.

 

It really depends on the care home and there are very good ones and absolutely the pits of hell ones. Private assisted care (expensive) tends to be the better ones but there is no guarantee. My experience with relatives in homes and hospitals is there needs to be an active advocate to ensure proper care. It sorta comes down to how dedicated the staff is and not just the management oversight and regulations.

True and true. But now that noone but the patient can go in, how can anyone advocate!? Here in the province of BC care homes were privatized. Cost went up quality went down.

 

I've just been informed that the sister of one of my best friends, her husband and her father in law have been hospitalized with CV19 ... people have become way too relaxed and let their guards down with the announcement of the vaccines even before they hit the streets, in my opinion.

 

I disagree. Wars on viruses have been caught and won. It just depends on how much sacrifice your team is willing to make to win. New Zealand is doing a great job of it as are several other Asian countries. The war on Ebola was also won without a vaccine. It pops up again and again but proper measures.

Our teams made great strides in April and that training should have carried through to eradication like New Zealand. It is just a question of sacrifice but saying can't, impossible, not reaistic simply means "not willing to sacrifice". Sacrifice means giving up rights for the team. No worse than agreeing to be drafted or told to wear shoes and shirts in a restaurant (note: there is no evidence that shirtless or barefooted people spread disease).

The virus or at least the RNA sequence of the virus will 'win'. As everyone will get a case from a vaccine or from natural infection. I want to get the case from a vaccine.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...-potentially-unpleasant-side-effects-n1247485
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/23/health/covid-vaccine-acip-meeting-discussion/index.html

"They are going to know they got a vaccine. They are not going to feel wonderful."
The whole point of vaccination is to cause an immune response in the body and that can sometimes cause flu-like symptoms such as body aches, or even fever and a headache.

New Zealand winning, don't get me F$^^ ing started.
Those countries are NOT winning, they are waiting, on the bottom of the ocean sitting out the war in near total isolation while most of the world without natural barriers lives with it daily. The problem with sitting on the bottom is the stealth destroyer knows your location but you can't locate them until after the bomb explodes. A effective strategy that depends mainly on location, not sacrifice or some special willingness to give up rights.

 

Across the board of political and ideological systems the virus is spreading. Lockdowns (artificial isolation barriers) slow it down for a while but without real physical barriers it will eventually recycle to the point where isolation is needed again.

 

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Across the board of political and ideological systems the virus is spreading. Lockdowns (artificial isolation barriers) slow it down for a while but without real physical barriers it will eventually recycle to the point where isolation is needed again.

I'd like to see a similar graph but on a per-capita basis. Where did you find this one?

 

I'd like to see a similar graph but on a per-capita basis. Where did you find this one?

https://www.statista.com/

Incidence of coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths in the European Economic Area and the United Kingdom as of November 25, 2020, by country(per 100,000 population)

 

The beatings will continue until morale improves and you comply!

People will adapt and find runarounds if restrictions continue past the point the 'public' is willing to comply (think Prohibition). My son and I spent one full day at the local native (able to ignore the governors executive orders) casino as a treat for him (he gets no time-off from now until after Christmas so he will miss a family travel event). The lodge is open with nice rooms for cheap or free, bars inside are open with waiters to orders drinks on the floor, you can still dine inside for breakfast, lunch and dinner. There are normal restrictions of wearing a mask, distancing, hand cleaning and no smoking (loving this) and it was filled with people who like us, just wanted to get away from Coronavirus isolation for just one day in IMO safe conditions with proper personal precautions.

If nobody is heading to grandma's house for Thanksgiving then they might be eating dinner at the buffet.

All-You-Can-Eat Thanksgiving Feast Hours Thursday, November 26 • 10AM - 8PM

$28

 

'It is just a question of sacrifice'

What they were doing to stay in business before the 'freeze'.

 

By my calculations, the US is somewhere between the UK and Belgium at about 80/100,000 population.
There are so many variables involved snd data is so distributed that you have to start looking much deeper than sweeping comments about countries.

Germany has a culture of following rules. Look near the top of population density and percent of population living in urban areas yet only 16/100k population. Greece, historically bad at following rules (similar culture to other Mediterranean countries yet, also a low death rate because they turned over all Covid manage to to scientists after the citizens saw what was happening in Italy in April/May.

as per the nursing homes in BC snd most of USA,no visitors allowed, only staff. Unfortunately, "staff" are so called "certified nursing assistants" or "licensed practical nurses". These are people that have high school education and some on the job training, that must get face to face with patients to lift them out of bed, to put them on the toilet or bathe them, wipe butts, and clean bed pans. Salaries (wages) are typically 1.5 to 2x minimum wage. The other main staff are the housekeepers - working near minimum wage because... who knows! it's just a terrible job for the pay - I don't even want to guess why the have no other job options. Nursing homes would not exist without them but training, understanding microbe transmission, Sterilization, exponential growth of microbes, cross-contamination, and all that goes with keeping people safe are not skills at the top of their agenda each day. If they do care about the transmission, the management is pressuring them todo their daily tasks without increasing costs, (not consuming PPE) and doing all the patient movements, cleaning and keeping everyone content.

 

 

Dictators? The governors executive orders are 'rules' not legislated laws. We the People agreed to press pause on our rights (Almost all “orders” related to COVID-19 violate the Bill of Rights in one way or another.) for a limited time while getting a lid on the health crisis. We the People can also set limits (lawfully) on just how far our rights can get bent during a health crisis that's lasted for 9 months with at least 6 months to go.

IMO using the threat of possible deadly force and jail far exceeds any possible gains in compliance while putting the police in that hard spot we all need to avoid putting the police in. What groups do you think will get the cops knocking on the door? It's unlikely to happen at the front door of the privileged in this country.

https://www.koin.com/news/oregon/linn-county-sheriff-da-wont-enforce-covid-restrictions/

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — The Linn County sheriff says his deputies will not enforce Oregon Governor Kate Brown’s executive order closing certain businesses, limiting others, and restricting at-home and social gatherings.

In a joint press release Thursday, Sheriff Jim Yon and Linn County District Attorney Doug Marteeny said many businesses in the community are holding on by a thread, and individuals are feeling “cut off and alone.”

“We understand the realities of Covid-19, but we draw the line when we are dealing with decisions relating to individual residences, religion, or businesses,” the statement reads.

Many local police agencies, including the Multnomah County Sheriff’s Office, Portland Police Bureau, and Oregon State Police focused on an education-first approach during the governor’s original stay at home order, and plan to do the same this time around.

A PPB spokesperson told KOIN 6 News the bureau has not issued any citations so far in regard to the COVID restrictions. Officers will continue to “exercise discretion” in situations arising from the governor’s order.

https://www.abc10.com/article/news/...-why/103-148e02b7-45fd-449b-a995-e251de5793b8
13 law enforcement agencies that refuse to enforce California's new curfew and why

People complained about the last set of 'rules' dictated by the governor, guess what, they changed to something slightly more reasonable under the current conditions of private gatherings, meeting and parties in homes being the primary spreaders as shown by the states own contract tracing data.

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/202...ts-can-open-for-outdoor-dining-next-week.html

Gov. Kate Brown will loosen many of Oregon’s COVID-19 restrictions: Bars and restaurants can open for outdoor dining next week

 

There are 2 things that kill at a much higher rate than this virus. They also happen to be interlinked - poverty and obesity.

Small businesses are just about done. There is a campaign here "shop local". Guess who is busy right now? I have not see the delivery van as much on my street as I do now. Who wants to stand outside in the rain to go into a small store to spend more money for same thing you can have shipped to you from amazon, ordered from a comfort of your own home? Human touch of having interacted with people? Why, we are obviously way past that. Of course this "event" just sped up the inevitable

As mentioned above, it is known where the danger is - parties/gatherings in close quarters. If you do not want to get sick, do not attend. It is a personal choice. Anyone vulnerable can take measures to protect themselves as they should.

What is personal responsibility? When I had active seizures, I CHOSE to wait 3 years clear prior to getting a drivers license. Government only requires 6 months and they do not really check. Why 3 years? I had multiple long seizure free periods with relapses. This was to protect others, as believe me I cared very little for my life back then. The point being here, rules put in place are not based on actual lived experiences which are all individual.

Just because you can doesnt mean you should. And just because "they" did, does not make it right...

And finally we need to stop comparing countries, there are too many factors - population make up, geography, culture, genetics, healthcare system, diet etc.

 

New Zealand winning, don't get me F$^^ ing started.
Those countries are NOT winning, they are waiting, on the bottom of the ocean sitting out the war in near total isolation while most of the world without natural barriers lives with it daily. The problem with sitting on the bottom is the stealth destroyer knows your location but you can't locate them until after the bomb explodes. A effective strategy that depends mainly of location, not sacrifice or some special willingness to give up rights.

I can't speak for NZ, but it doesn't feel like we are hiding at the bottom of the ocean awaiting an attack from a stealth destroyer. It ain't so stealthy if you know where to look. What seems to be working for us (NSW, Australia - population 7.5mil) is:

- surveillance testing - currently about 13,000 tests/day - plenty of people are engaged to get tested at the slightest symptoms so that if there is a new outbreak we detect it reasonably quickly. (for scale - this is about half the rate per capita of testing currently in the US)
- sewage surveillance - suburbs where virus fragments in sewage are detected are publicised and the public is encouraged to get tested, temporary testing sites set up if needed, local doctors encourage testing https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/sewage-surveillance.aspx
- huge effort on infrastructure to facilitate contact tracing - electronic sign-in mandated for all personal service businesses - including restaurants/bars.
- internal borders opening, relatively normal Christmas planned, visitors from overseas still need to quarantine for 14 days
- restrictions on gatherings are slowly being lifted, modest crowds back at sporting events, live theatre reopened
- we never closed schools so students having a relatively normal year

We haven't been hiding from the virus, Our initial outbreak wasn't that different to the rest of the developed world. We had a lockdown and we stayed locked down until our contact tracers had a handle on new cases. Our new case numbers have been 0-20/day from mid-April until early November (over 6 months), our public health officials found every chain of transmission and shut it down.

Daily case numbers. Note - these case numbers include international travellers in our quarantine facilities. The last locally acquired case was on Nov 7.

It's been 20 days since we have had a locally acquired case, masks are disappearing locally, but still worn by the majority on public transport. The mood is vigilant, not celebratory. If (when) we get more cases (even a handful statewide) I expect masks to rapidly reappear at the local shopping centre. Hand sanitizer has been available at every store I have visited.

Note that if there is a new chain of transmission, you only need to find one case, possibly someone with mild symptoms that gets tested, then the contact tracers move in and we test, trace and isolate. Seems to work well.

The result of this is that we have a population that is probably over 99% susceptible to the virus, but with vaccines coming, at this stage, this doesn't look like a bad strategy. It appears that no-one will be anywhere close to herd immunity by the time vaccines arrive. The rate of rise in the most recent surge in Sweden suggests that not even they are close.

The local economy seems pretty normal, restaurants/bars etc. domestic travel is up - during the recent school holidays most accommodation booked out statewide. International travel / tourism essentially zero, international students also way down.

Not having much virus is extraordinarily popular. The scenes we see on the news from overseas are heartbreaking. Most folk I know feel extremely lucky. What resistance there was to the control measures put in place initially has evaporated with the results achieved. Now there are relatively few restrictions. We have made mistakes, but (hopefully) we have learnt from them. How to run quarantine facilities is clearly something we are getting better at.

Happy Thanksgiving to all in the US. Stay safe.

 

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/19/9155

Interesting look at soviet efforts to control the plague.

 

I can't speak for NZ, but it doesn't feel like we are hiding at the bottom of the ocean awaiting an attack from a stealth destroyer. It ain't so stealthy if you know where to look. What seems to be working for us (NSW, Australia - population 7.5mil) is:
...
Happy Thanksgiving to all in the US. Stay safe.

Keep safe. Never said it was a bad strategy if you've got the geography, low population density and high relative wealth to support it for the duration. You must know your success means NZ will be the last country to get the vaccine.

The case results in Sweden show the current virus strain will require high levels of effectiveness in vaccines to slow and then stop the pandemic even with moderate levels of natural infection.

The Dakota's are finally under 1 for R0.

 

Never said it was a bad strategy if you've got the geography, low population density and high relative wealth to support it for the duration. You must know your success means NZ will be the last country to get the vaccine.

On one side people say Australia has so many advantages because they are isolated. But...
Talk about geography helping to isolate - North Dakota should have been the last bastion of infection and should have been able to easily control it with proper public health measures with contact tracing. No international flights - although North Dakota has an interstate highway, it is off the beaten path and too far North and reconnects with the more southern highway so most people take I-90 to the North West. ND is Very, very isolated.

You have to make an effort to see someone in North Dakota, big yards, low population density. It seems like NoDak residents are rubbing their noses with each others face masks as a greeting. I don't know how else such a low-density/remote population can manage to inoculate each other so efficiently. Sloppy, lazy, anti-science, manipulated, fake news, who knows? Just a lot of sadness in North Dakota.

Australia : 27M population, 27k infections, 909 deaths. 387k tests/million population: percent urban population 82%
North Dakota: 762k population, 77k infections, 902 deaths. 454k tests/million population: percent urban population 60%