Good news! From this day forward, the models are getting more accurate:



Come September, the predictive capability will be almost perfect.

 

Good news! From this day forward, the models are getting more accurate:

View attachment 211562

Come September, the predictive capability will be almost perfect.

Wouldn't the modeled curve show the daily deaths without the lockdown?

 

Wouldn't the modeled curve show the daily deaths without the lockdown?

Their best case model was projecting about 250 deaths per day (peak). They were (and still are) hilariously wrong regardless of how you look at it.

https://mn.gov/covid19/assets/MNmodel_PPT 5.21.20 1019AM_tcm1148-434753.pdf

 

For those who wear N95 masks, here is an easy way to decontaminate them using steam generated in a microwave. An actual study. https://mbio.asm.org/content/11/3/e00997-20?rss=1

 

Their best case model was projecting about 250 deaths per day (peak). They were (and still are) hilariously wrong regardless of how you look at it.

https://mn.gov/covid19/assets/MNmodel_PPT 5.21.20 1019AM_tcm1148-434753.pdf

We've known since the beginning who dies from this disease. Protect the more vulnerable populations instead of wasting resources on restraining those least likely to suffer long-term effects. What we don't know how to shield the most vulnerable when there is widespread community transmission but it's something we really need to get right quickly instead of relying on low community rates because that can't work for long term without an effective vaccine and a highly vaccinated general population most expect to take years to happen.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/opin...ovid-19-infections-spike-sepkowitz/index.html

Using old school shoe-leather information-gathering, the Times journalists identified 54,000 Covid-19 deaths in long-term care facilities among patients and staff (the breakdown between the two groups is not given). This represents a staggering 43% of all Covid-19 deaths in the US, a proportion similar to what was previously reported from France.
Furthermore, the Times constructed a state-by-state table that demonstrates that almost half of these deaths (26,331) occurred in just five states that were part of the devastating March and April wave in the Northern US: New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Illinois. (Florida sits in 10th place, with 1,748 nursing home deaths).

Which means that a crucial issue affecting mortality is whether the raging epidemic in Southern states will result in the virus further spreading into nursing homes.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/7/7/21300521/canada-covid-19-nursing-homes-long-term-care

Canada’s “national shame”: Covid-19 in nursing homes
Nursing homes account for 81 percent of Covid-19 deaths in the country. How did this happen?

 

Good news! From this day forward, the models are getting more accurate:

View attachment 211562

Come September, the predictive capability will be almost perfect.

I think i may have mentioned this but the European guy who came up with the original model was wrong with every model he ever produced, yet he was still believed with the projections for the corona virus outbreak.

Yes they are getting better. The next model will predict 15.7 trillion deaths by next week

Here is the outcome from my mock up simulation of the deaths with no human intervention.

 

A long, but excellent article: The Science of Risk.

...for a policy expected to save one life (which means a probability of about 0.0000000033 that it will save your life), we should be willing to sacrifice up to 3.3 cents per American, or $10 million altogether. (This is exactly what economists mean when they say that in the United States, the value of a life is about $10 million.)

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...cases-falls-to-lowest-since-may-idUSKBN248240

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Sweden’s daily tally of new COVID-19 cases fell to its lowest since late May on Tuesday, a sharp reversal from June when expanded testing fuelled record numbers in a country that drew global attention for its rejection of a lockdown.
Cases in the Nordic country have declined sharply over the past few days and on Tuesday only 283 new cases were recorded.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...cases-falls-to-lowest-since-may-idUSKBN248240


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Either they're attaining herd immunity (could be, but I have my doubts) or people are finally being very careful.

 

Either they're attaining herd immunity (could be, but I have my doubts) or people are finally being very careful.

Hi there,

Herd immunity is complicated for this new virus because antibody protection may not last more than 3 months as opposed to other viruses that last a year or so. However, it is even more complicated than that. There is a variation in people who had gotten the virus and had shown little signs of it and people who got the virus and had shown very severe symptom. The severe cases develop stronger or more antibodies while the asymptomatic develop weak (or less) antibodies, but there are other protections that kick in for the asymptomatic which may be why they dont get very severe symptoms in the first place. Also, since this isnt really the only corona virus out there some of us may have gotten a common cold and developed antibodies that could help fight this new virus.

I was going to go for the antibody test. If i have antibodies then i must be an asymptomatic bu if i dont i could still be asymptomatic, and this could happen whether i got the virus in the past or not. Add to that the antibody test is not that accurate (yet) so it makes little sense to go for the test.

 

I just gave up worrying about it all -- not that I ever really did. Wuhan only interests me in the political/academic sense now.

I suppose if I get a severe infection, I'll feel differently.

 

I suppose if I get a severe infection, I'll feel differently.

I hope it never comes to that...

 

I hope it never comes to that...

I could also get hit by a bus, fall in a manhole, or have my brains blown out by a micrometeorite that survives reentry.

So many dumb ways to die...

 

Just when I figured the City of Cleveland, Ohio could not get any worse they again surprise me. Recently Akron, Ohio went to a mask required in public policy and naturally Clevel;and followed suit. We expect the entire county to take that route very soon. OK, cool with me. I know people completely stressed out over all of this so i keep mask in my bike, mask in my truck and even mask in my wife's truck on the off chance I decide to drive it. Here is the latest on lunacy, people are calling 911 to report other people who are not wearing a mask. How stupid can people really get? Check this out. Keep in mind, the City of Cleveland get swamped daily with 911 calls many of which are nonsense like people wanting a ride to the hospital for a common cold. Note how many 911 calls go unanswered. Guy with a gunshot wound can't get through because idiots figure reporting someone for not wearing a mask is an "emergency". Something even more scary is these morons vote. Then too, that explains a lot about Cleveland, Ohio.

Ron

 

I could also get hit by a bus, fall in a manhole, or have my brains blown out by a micrometeorite that survives reentry.

So many dumb ways to die...

Fall off of your flying sofa ...

 

I could also get hit by a bus, fall in a manhole, or have my brains blown out by a micrometeorite that survives reentry.

So many dumb ways to die...

Funny the movie "A Million Ways To Die In The West" just played two times on channel Fx recently. The movie is set in 1882 and the lead character talks about how many ways you could die in that period.
Now you would think we've come a long way since then, but all of a sudden it doesnt seem that way. Cures for this, cures for that, but no cure for some things. People still die in unusual ways for unusual reasons.

 

Funny the movie "A Million Ways To Die In The West" just played two times on channel Fx recently. The movie is set in 1882 and the lead character talks about how many ways you could die in that period.
Now you would think we've come a long way since then, but all of a sudden it doesnt seem that way. Cures for this, cures for that, but no cure for some things. People still die in unusual ways for unusual reasons.

So many dumb ways to die for dummies.

 

So many dumb ways to die for dummies.

Awesome! I've never heard of this. Next binge-watch series...

 

https://news.yahoo.com/panic-buying-returns-melbourne-braces-lengthy-lockdown-032146627.html

Shoppers in Australia's second-biggest city stripped supermarket shelves Wednesday as millions in Melbourne prepared for a return to virus lockdown, with warnings the new restrictions could prompt a mental health crisis.
...
Restaurants and cafes will be limited to serving takeaway food, while gyms, beauty salons and cinemas will be forced to close again.

Residents will be restricted to their homes except for work, exercise, medical care or to buy essentials -- a return to social isolation that was only recently lifted.

 

https://news.yahoo.com/panic-buying-returns-melbourne-braces-lengthy-lockdown-032146627.html

This post now seems prescient.