Coronavirus?!

Status
Not open for further replies.

SamR

Joined Mar 19, 2019
5,031
Sounds like ventilators are a hail Mary pass with little chance of completion. Sobering news. Sedate the patient so they go peacefully... Kinda like Cancer and Morphine.
 

Reloadron

Joined Jan 15, 2015
7,501
State-by-state projection for the next few months of hospitalizations, beds, ventilators, deaths, etc. Study supported by the Gates Foundation. It is dead on for my state so far. Best info yet.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Here is the paper to go along with the data:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1
Pretty interesting. I clicked Ohio and saw the peak which drops off considerably by June. Then I clicked West Virginia and the peak shifted to the right. Thinking about some cabin time come June and my sister has a nice cabin in West Virginia. Not a really big deal but was looking forward to it.

Ron
 

jpanhalt

Joined Jan 18, 2008
11,087
Sounds like ventilators are a hail Mary pass with little chance of completion. Sobering news. Sedate the patient so they go peacefully... Kinda like Cancer and Morphine.
I do disagree with you there. Current research at several centers is aimed at "regenerating" the damage done to lungs. It may seem a bit like StarTrek stuff, but regenerative medicine is real and has been ongoing for years. They will be able to regenerate joint tissues in the near future, and regeneration of retina'a (actually an extension of our brains) is clearly in the future. I cannot give up on someone with an infectious disease.
 
Sounds like ventilators are a hail Mary pass with little chance of completion. Sobering news. Sedate the patient so they go peacefully... Kinda like Cancer and Morphine.
My wife is an ICU nurse. Someone coming off a ventilator and surviving is a big win. What a lot of people don't realize is when you go on a ventilator you are sedated to unconsciousness. You cannot be conscious while the machine breaths for you. Before going on the machine, you say goodbye to your family. It may very well be your last chance to say goodbye.
Edit: The big win is for Covid-19 patients. Your chances are considerably less with Covid-19 than other conditions.
 
Last edited:

wayneh

Joined Sep 9, 2010
17,496
You are correct. My wife is an ICU nurse. Someone coming off a ventilator and surviving is a big win. What a lot of people don't realize is when you go on a ventilator you are sedated to unconsciousness. You cannot be conscious while the machine breaths for you. Before going on the machine, you say goodbye to your family. It may very well be your last chance.
The odds are 50/50 under normal circumstances and it looks like the odds are as bad as 15/85 for CV19 patients. On the upside, the ventilator shortage may not matter much.
 

Reloadron

Joined Jan 15, 2015
7,501
You are correct. My wife is an ICU nurse. Someone coming off a ventilator and surviving is a big win. What a lot of people don't realize is when you go on a ventilator you are sedated to unconsciousness. You cannot be conscious while the machine breaths for you. Before going on the machine, you say goodbye to your family. It may very well be your last chance.
My mother in law had brain surgery which did not go well. She was in her mid 50s when she walked into a hospital and was carried out. To get to the aneurysm they cut away considerable brain matter. Following a nursing home care she came home for home care. No speach, and in fact not much of anything but quite conscious. If you pinched her she would jerk away. She went years like this including a trach tube and feeding was always done using a feeding tube directly into her stomach. Eventually came the ventilator machine which I pretty much viewed as a smart respirator which is a totally different animal. The vent machine looked at the patient's inhale and assisted or would fully breath for the patient. We could see the numbers or basically the percentage of work the machine was doing. Sometimes very little like 10% and other times 90% but the patient is not sedated to unconsciousness. There is more discomfort caused by the trach tube than the vent. When phlegm builds up we disconnected the trach and used the suction machine to remove it. When there was a problem with anything the vent machine would alarm. It also had a backup battery good for about 20 min and an external 12 VDC jack on the back. The U.S. Department of Health & Human Services has a good page on Ventilator/Ventilator Support and while my experience with this was decades ago things don't seem to have changed much.

Vent Machine.png
The illustration shows a standard setup for a ventilator in a hospital room. The ventilator pushes warm, moist air (or air with increased oxygen) to the patient. Exhaled air flows away from the patient.

Pretty much how I remember it but along the way the O2 was connected. Anyway I have to disagree as to the patient being sedated unless possibly that is true for COVID-19 patients but certainly not true of all patients on a ventilator. My mother in law was on that machine about 5 years when she passed away.

Ron
 

jpanhalt

Joined Jan 18, 2008
11,087
You are correct. My wife is an ICU nurse. Someone coming off a ventilator and surviving is a big win. What a lot of people don't realize is when you go on a ventilator you are sedated to unconsciousness. You cannot be conscious while the machine breaths for you. Before going on the machine, you say goodbye to your family. It may very well be your last chance.
Edit: The big win is for Covid-19 patients. Your chances are considerably less with Covid-19 than other conditions.
I disagree. Ventilators and Ambu bags save lives. A 10% success rate is a lot better than 0% when it is your child or other loved one.
 
My mother in law had brain surgery which did not go well. She was in her mid 50s when she walked into a hospital and was carried out. To get to the aneurysm they cut away considerable brain matter. Following a nursing home care she came home for home care. No speach, and in fact not much of anything but quite conscious. If you pinched her she would jerk away. She went years like this including a trach tube and feeding was always done using a feeding tube directly into her stomach. Eventually came the ventilator machine which I pretty much viewed as a smart respirator which is a totally different animal. The vent machine looked at the patient's inhale and assisted or would fully breath for the patient. We could see the numbers or basically the percentage of work the machine was doing. Sometimes very little like 10% and other times 90% but the patient is not sedated to unconsciousness. There is more discomfort caused by the trach tube than the vent. When phlegm builds up we disconnected the trach and used the suction machine to remove it. When there was a problem with anything the vent machine would alarm. It also had a backup battery good for about 20 min and an external 12 VDC jack on the back. The U.S. Department of Health & Human Services has a good page on Ventilator/Ventilator Support and while my experience with this was decades ago things don't seem to have changed much.

View attachment 203643
The illustration shows a standard setup for a ventilator in a hospital room. The ventilator pushes warm, moist air (or air with increased oxygen) to the patient. Exhaled air flows away from the patient.

Pretty much how I remember it but along the way the O2 was connected. Anyway I have to disagree as to the patient being sedated unless possibly that is true for COVID-19 patients but certainly not true of all patients on a ventilator. My mother in law was on that machine about 5 years when she passed away.

Ron
I am talking about in an ICU. Some patients do not need to be unconscious but most are knocked out. Every morning, the patient is allowed to wake up to test their ability to breath enough on their own. If OK, off the machine. If not OK, back under sedation. Of course, many people use a ventilator outside of the hospital but this is very different than in an ICU. Someone who is stable and can tolerate ventilation can use it for a long time. A famous example is Christopher Reeves (Superman). ICU patients have a lot of stuff going on and definitely are not stable.
 

Reloadron

Joined Jan 15, 2015
7,501
I am talking about in an ICU. Some patients do not need to be unconscious but most are knocked out. Every morning, the patient is allowed to wake up to test their ability to breath enough on their own. If OK, off the machine. If not OK, back under sedation. Of course, many people use a ventilator outside of the hospital but this is very different than in an ICU. Someone who is stable and can tolerate ventilation can use it for a long time. A famous example is Christopher Reeves (Superman). ICU patients have a lot of stuff going on and definitely are not stable.
OK, then it makes sense. Hell even without a vent when I was in an ICU I wanted sedated. I will say the one time I was like 4 or 5 days ICU and have nothing but great praise and admiration for every single person who cared for me from my doctors to my nurses down to the guy who came in every morning and wiped down everything in the room and sanitized even the floor. Some seriously dedicated people. Give your wife a big thank you for going to work.

Ron
 

jpanhalt

Joined Jan 18, 2008
11,087
Hello. I didn't say don't vent them. Give me a break.
SamR said,
Sounds like ventilators are a hail Mary pass with little chance of completion. Sobering news. Sedate the patient so they go peacefully... Kinda like Cancer and Morphine.
To which you responded,
@Analog Ground said:
You are correct. My wife is an ICU nurse.
That seems pretty clear to me what you meant. Maybe you should let your wife speak for herself. It is the 21st century, after all.
 
SamR said,
To which you responded,


That seems pretty clear to me what you meant. Maybe you should let your wife speak for herself. It is the 21st century, after all.
I get you now. I was agreeing with the "Hail Mary pass" as a low chance of survival. I will edit my post so it does not agree with the "go peacefully" part. Thanks for allowing me to clarify. My main point was to let people know what is involved with Covid-19 patients going on a ventilator.
 

jpanhalt

Joined Jan 18, 2008
11,087
Bet you don't remember the polio wards and "Iron Lungs." I do. In fact, we had quite a scare in my family when my older brother took ill during the Summer of 1952 or 1953. Even though there was no treatment, they saved lives. Fortunately, it was not polio, but he was kept in an isolation ward with polio patients at LA County Hospital.
 

SamR

Joined Mar 19, 2019
5,031
I remember the iron lungs. Terrible things by today's standards. No one in our family was struck by it thankfully but had several kids in school that did. We did lose a great-grandfather in the Spanish pandemic even here in, at that time, the backwoods of Georgia.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,086
https://dnyuz.com/2020/04/04/in-italy-going-back-to-work-may-depend-on-having-the-right-antibodies/
From an ethical perspective, she argued, the question of using antibodies as a basis for free movement reconciles a utilitarian vision of what is best for society with respect for individual humanity, by protecting “the most fragile, not marginalizing them.”

“It’s not discriminating,” she said. “It’s protecting.”

Scientists in Italy, like their counterparts in Germany, the United States, China and beyond, are already studying whether antibodies are a potential source of protection or immunity from the virus.
...
Scientists in Italy said the virus produces two types of antibodies, a first that usually appears within five to six days after exposure to the virus, and which fades after 20 days. As a person heals, that antibody, which indirectly shows contagion, is slowly replaced by another antibody, which indirectly shows that a person has had the virus.

When only the second antibody is detected, it means the person is probably no longer infected.

“You are most likely a healthy person that either survived the infection or you were asymptomatic and you have developed antibodies,” Dr. Crisanti said.
 

SamR

Joined Mar 19, 2019
5,031
I have seen it proposed to give "passes" to those that have fully recovered to allow free passage. IE return to work. Sounds like an enforcement nightmare. Papers please...
 

SamR

Joined Mar 19, 2019
5,031
Note to self: When going to the grocery store, leave the phone at home.
They are saying to leave everything in the car but your debit card and to use a cleansing wipe on it after running it through the scanner. Someone here posted a picture of the gloves littering the Publix grocery parking lot on Facebook.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top