Evidence for that?

No cases in the county before the wedding, where no one wore masks, but people came in from other areas to attend -
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...s-one-death-jail-outbreak-now-linked-to-maine

 

Herd Immunity? Who wants to volunteer? -

"Currently, the U.S. has a case fatality rate of about 3%, based on 187,000 deaths and 6.2 million infections; however, the infection fatality rate is likely lower since most asymptomatic infections probably aren't detected. The CDC uses 0.65% in its pandemic planning scenarios.


Using the WHO (65%) and CDC (0.65%) figures, 213 million people in the U.S. would need to be infected to achieve herd immunity, leaving 1,385,800 Americans dead." From - https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88401

Herd Immunity is not a dirty word. How we get it without an effective vaccine is the question. Any nation must have a fallback plan for initial vaccine failure.

Unless we have a completely vaccinated population in the next 12 months those bogus death stats based on infected antibody only protection won't matter. The obvious problem with the large numbers of dead is a assumption of NO social distancing, NO masks and NO preventive measures taken, NO memory T cells providing the protection needed. In other words it's a biased option that lacks a broad scientific basis in reality. The truth is we and the rest of the planet are somewhere on a scale of Herd Immunity planning from near total isolation like NZ or Hawaii waiting for a vaccine to deliver Herd Immunity, down to the scale of most of the third world that's done little more than clean-up the dead. From a hard lock-down strategy to nothing, it’s still too early to tell which pandemic strategy will be best in the long-term.

https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-herd-immunity-mastermind-who-promotion-1529111

Sweden's 'Herd Immunity' Mastermind Gets Promoted by WHO

Writing in The Lancet in May, Giesecke said he believes that "everyone will be exposed" to the virus at some point and that "most people will become infected"—but many will have weak or mild symptoms. "There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in one year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken."

Obviously a vaccine is the wanted shortcut to Herd Immunity without excess deaths.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-03/coronavirus-lockdown-protest-facebook-arrest/12624318

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1301111188227461120

From someone who follows Australian news, this is an outlier, I'm sure all sides will learn from it.

As you seem to want an update from Aus, the Victorian outbreak is coming under control. From:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...w-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704?nw=0



Victoria is set to announce it's path out of lockdown. I'm amazed they needed as draconian a lockdown as they imposed.

In NSW (pop 7.5m) where I am, we seem to have withstood the leakage over the border from Victoria. Our new cases for the last two weeks have been generally in single digits. (basically been in the range 0 - 20 since mid April). Out testing and tracing seems to be holding, but this is a random process so there is no guarantee. The community is still well engaged, anyone with respiratory symptoms is encouraged to get tested, and in NSW we are averaging over 20k tests/day (to find 0-20 cases). Life is pretty normal locally, since the Victorian outbreak masks are becoming more common in supermarkets and on public transport, Generally you can have events up to 100 people with no restrictions. Schools are open and seem pretty normal, except that large events are off (massed assemblies, etc). Restaurants and bars are open. Still no crowds at sporting events in NSW and Vic, but other states that are essentially clear of the virus have crowds. Major sporting codes have moved many of their games there.

 

Vaccine only increases one's likelihood of developing immunity. Face masks and home detention decrease that likelihood.

Firstly, the pedant in me has to note that "Face masks and home detention decrease that likelihood" is a tacit acceptance that face masks may work.

I really don't understand the persistent theme that there are only two outcomes of a Covid-19 infection, either you die or you become immune. I hope that this is right and that any ongoing morbidity is rare, but there is emerging evidence that this may not be so. Apart from the anecdotal evidence in the media, there is some real data that is more concerning, for example about heart involvement:

https://cardiovascularnews.com/fran...complications-in-recovered-covid-19-patients/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucel...ronavirus-may-affect-your-heart/#4f1d365c1b89
https://us.cnn.com/2020/09/03/health/penn-state-big-10-myocarditis-covid-spt-trnd/index.html

As I've said many times over, no-one really knows what the best path forward is, but my preference is to become immune via a vaccine, and hopefully that won't attack my heart (or any other organ). This may be a pipe dream, but if I have to get Covid-19, then the longer I delay it then the more likely that there will be support therapy to improve survival chances and reduce any long term complications.

 

Firstly, the pedant in me has to note that "Face masks and home detention decrease that likelihood" is a tacit acceptance that face masks may work.

I guess I should have added, "if they work as claimed."

I really don't understand the persistent theme that there are only two outcomes of a Covid-19 infection, either you die or you become immune. I hope that this is right and that any ongoing morbidity is rare, but there is emerging evidence that this may not be so. Apart from the anecdotal evidence in the media, there is some real data that is more concerning, for example about heart involvement:

https://cardiovascularnews.com/fran...complications-in-recovered-covid-19-patients/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucel...ronavirus-may-affect-your-heart/#4f1d365c1b89
https://us.cnn.com/2020/09/03/health/penn-state-big-10-myocarditis-covid-spt-trnd/index.html

As I've said many times over, no-one really knows what the best path forward is, but my preference is to become immune via a vaccine, and hopefully that won't attack my heart (or any other organ). This may be a pipe dream, but if I have to get Covid-19, then the longer I delay it then the more likely that there will be support therapy to improve survival chances and reduce any long term complications.

I don't know where you are coming from on that "persistent theme." Many it comes from politicians or the press who have agenda.

It has been know from very early on that morbidity from Covid-19 was significant. The severity of lung damage and morbidity from permanent scaring has been recognized from the earliest cases in the United States. That is one reason pulmonologists and ICU practitioners used steroids and other immunomodulators to treat patients against Dr. Fauci's and CDC's recommendations. They wre right, too. I am also aware of a "regenerative medicine" group in the US that initiated at least one study early on to see whether the techniques they were using could be used to limit or even reverse heart/lung damage. I suspect that group is not alone.

 

I don't know where you are coming from on that "persistent theme."

It's a persistent theme by omission. Just looking at the last dozen or so posts here, there is a consistent theme that herd immunity by natural spread is a viable choice, and the only cost is the deaths (which, it is usually pointed out, are mainly in the elderly or ill). There is no mention of other consequences of inviting a novel virus into the bodies of most of your population. There is clearly a risk of long-term morbidity in some survivors. One of those cardiac studies found ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60% of the recovered patients, including some who had mild disease. Heart complications were found in college athletes. Imagine if there are on-going heart complications in even only a few percent of those infected, including the young. Natural herd immunity, if it works, suddenly has a much higher cost. Imagine if it turned out to be 60%!

As I said before, no-one really knows the right approach, but we need to acknowledge the risks.

 

... we need to acknowledge the risks.

Well said. Kudos to your realistic perspective of things.

 

It's a persistent theme by omission. Just looking at the last dozen or so posts here, there is a consistent theme that herd immunity by natural spread is a viable choice, and the only cost is the deaths (which, it is usually pointed out, are mainly in the elderly or ill). There is no mention of other consequences of inviting a novel virus into the bodies of most of your population. There is clearly a risk of long-term morbidity in some survivors. One of those cardiac studies found ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60% of the recovered patients, including some who had mild disease. Heart complications were found in college athletes. Imagine if there are on-going heart complications in even only a few percent of those infected, including the young. Natural herd immunity, if it works, suddenly has a much higher cost. Imagine if it turned out to be 60%!

As I said before, no-one really knows the right approach, but we need to acknowledge the risks.

We have a good idea of the risks from the last outbreaks yet China let it happen again.

Excess deaths are commonly used because currently they are just about the only reliable data tracker. The actual number of infection cases are commonly said to be off by a factor of 10 and complications, short and long have practically no scientifically testable data of being less or more common, more or less harmful than any other viral/bacterial respiratory illness causing systematic inflammation that affects the heart, lungs and brain. I'm not saying it's not dangerous, countermeasures like hand hygiene, social distancing and wearing masks all reduce the viral load a person might get (this virus is so contagious these measures will not prevent continuous exposure in the general population unless we remain in a strict lock-down until Herd Immunity is achieved by vaccination or slow continuous exposure) and many scientists believe that initial viral load is a important factor on the level of symptoms that later develop.

 

There is a schedule to come back to school soon, but I predict with a high degree of confidence that it won't last long at all. I wager 2 weeks as with optimism, before someone gets sick and they have to quarantine the whole class. It will be one class at a time, one quarantine after another, the entire school year grossing more downtime than uptime, if it even goes the full year. They will more likely cancel it mid-year and on-line schooling will become the new norm.

The online schooling is garbage. I hate to say it because I know how much effort the teachers are putting into it, but there is absolutely no substitute for face-to-face, engaged education. The kids are not learning anything. They're languishing, stagnating emotionally and intellectually.

I was home schooled 1st-8th grade and when I went to public school for the first time I had to take a placement test, which ranked me college level in all subjects except science & math (I was two grade levels behind in math). I think home school is a better education than regular public school. It's way better than this online stuff. I don't care how intelligent or educated the parent is; an illiterate person could serve as a better educator than this.

My wife quit her job to home school our kids. They start next week. My cousin did the same. And my sister. And several friends and people I know. More than a 3rd of the k-12 students in our district have unenrolled since last year. Those who remain, are doing the online classes. On top of my previous predictions, I'll say that if this education scenario is allowed to continue "until a vaccine is is found" (possibly years until released, and probably more years before everyone is comfortable with it) I see a future with two very distinct groups of people. Those who received a real education, and those who were "taught" by a laptop or a tablet. "Privilege" gets thrown around a lot as is; different districts getting different amounts of funding, zoning, etc, but until now, even if you come from a poor neighborhood and your school didn't have funding for nice new stuff, you were still taught by a human being. Imagine the bleakness of someone who hardly received any education at all, trying to compete for a job against so many who received above average one-on-one educations from people who actually have a very vested interest in their personal success. Having that real education will be an undeniable privilege. Before it's all said and done it might be a split right down the middle of the country, half barely (or not) literate and the other half doubly educated. I shudder to think of it. I am glad to be in a position to offer my kids admission to the privileged half (albeit with some sacrifices).

Or, we could just send the kids back to school and treat this virus the same way we do other viruses. Yes, it will be more damaging than other viruses. More elderly & immune compromised people will die (and yes, even some totally healthy young people). It is tragic. But is it more tragic than ripping apart the fabric of our society and dispensing with the notion of a Land of Opportunity? Because we will no longer be able to make that claim if in fact everyone does not have the same opportunity. Is it more tragic than feudalism? I don't know. These are not rhetorical questions. I have not been able to come to an opinion on it, regarding the whole of society. But for me and my little corner of society, if we are going lopsided, I want my kids on the best side.

 

... possibly years until released, and probably more years before everyone is comfortable with it

I'm far more optimistic than that. The vaccine will be ready in a few months, that's my belief. The true question is how many of us will have faith in it and take it as soon as it's available.

"Privilege" gets thrown around a lot as is; different districts getting different amounts of funding, zoning, etc

I hate the privilege card, it's been thrown around so much that it's lost its meaning

half barely (or not) literate and the other half doubly educated. I shudder to think of it.

I see that as an opportunity. To show the system how flawed it really is. And how little the citizens' children really need to be indoctrinated by their own governments.

More elderly & immune compromised people will die (and yes, even some totally healthy young people).

There's no need for that, I believe. All we need to do (until a vaccine is found) is apply self discipline and seriously follow common sense guidelines until an effective vaccine from a trusted source is deployed.

 

What I am seeing here is that it is the ones NOT taking, much less even trying to take, precautions that are getting sick. None of the people that I know who are taking precautions are getting sick. If you want to run around without a mask, socialize in large mixed groups, not use safe practices at work or shopping, and just ignore good common sense advice then don't be surprised when you do get sick. Then don't be surprised that it's not just a common cold or a mild case of the flu, like you thought it was going to be, when you end up in the hospital.

 

We are creative. Humans will find a way to socialize in any condition.

 

I'm far more optimistic than that. The vaccine will be ready in a few months, that's my belief. The true question is how many of us will have faith in it and take it as soon as it's available.

If I had joined this discussion prior to page 180-something I might know why you're so optimistic. But I didn't, so I don't. Is it just a feeling or do you know something about progress on a vaccine?

I hate the privilege card, it's been thrown around so much that it's lost its meaning

I agree so wholeheartedly that I have to suppress the urge to go on about it. I think your words are probably as far as would fly here, but sufficient.

I see that as an opportunity. To show the system how flawed it really is. And how little the citizens' children really need to be indoctrinated by their own governments.

True, that would be a silver lining i had not considered.

There's no need for that, I believe. All we need to do (until a vaccine is found) is apply self discipline and seriously follow common sense guidelines until an effective vaccine from a trusted source is deployed.

Yeah, but... we're talking about kids. They're notoriously bad with the whole self discipline thing. Except in Japan I guess. We should do a case study on Japanese parenting. Flush all this Dr. Spock nonsense and invest money into studying Japan. It would probably yield more return on investment than developing a vaccine.

 

It's a persistent theme by omission. Just looking at the last dozen or so posts here, there is a consistent theme that herd immunity by natural spread is a viable choice, and the only cost is the deaths (which, it is usually pointed out, are mainly in the elderly or ill).

"Herd immunity" has many common and somewhat differing definitions. In common to those definitions is the reduction of Ro to a level that the epidemic infection fails to spread. I have always used the term in this thread to describe naturally acquired immunity following subclinical infection -- the prevalence of which is very high in some populatons. By definition the sequelae are minimal if at all.

There is no mention of other consequences of inviting a novel virus into the bodies of most of your population.

What do you think the vaccine(s) will be? What do you think an mRNA vaccine does? (http://news.unchealthcare.org/som-v...sars-cov-2-vaccines-in-infant-rhesus-macaques)

De Paris and Permar will test the immunogenicity and efficacy of two candidate SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in infant monkeys: the Moderna mRNA vaccine which is currently in Phase 3 clinical trials at multiple sites including UNC, and the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein vaccine developed by UNC School of Medicine alum Kizzmekia Corbett and Barney Graham from the Viral Pathogenesis Laboratory and Translational Science Core at the NIAID.

As I said before, no-one really knows the right approach, but we need to acknowledge the risks.

I hope you are not implying I don't acknowledge the risks. I have been pretty adamant about those risks as well as recognizing the risks of prolonging the pandemic.

 

Herd Immunity is not a dirty word.

I don't know how you got that from the article I linked to? You seem to have missed the projected death toll, that was what I was alluding to in my opening statement in the post.

 

Imagine if there are on-going heart complications in even only a few percent of those infected, including the young.

Not only the heart is infected. My wifes kidney doctor is recovering now from Covid.While he had a very mild reaction, only a week in the hospital, he now has a big liver problem that may not go away. Before the Covid, other than a little over weight he was healthy.

 

The evidence is piling up that this affects a great deal more than just the respiratory system. It will still be a while before we know the full effects of this pandemic.

 

Even Batman's been affected by this crisis... what's next? the Bat-vaccine?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/03/entertainment/the-batman-robert-pattinson-covid/index.html

 

I don't know how you got that from the article I linked to? You seem to have missed the projected death toll, that was what I was alluding to in my opening statement in the post.

It's blatantly obvious in that linked article that Herd Immunity is being linked to high death rates. Letting the virus run rampant through a population is madness that absolutely nobody is suggesting as the cure. We have virus transmission countermeasures, treatments and testing/tracing the gives us effective Herd Immunity (the virus is not finding new hosts easily) at much lower percentages of population infection than doing nothing.
https://rt.live/

SO the actual discussion is not about Herd Immunity as an objective, it's about achieving effective Herd Immunity while balancing the social and economic conditions needed to maintain this effective Herd Immunity until vaccine Herd Immunity is possible.

Example:
These states have a Effective Reproduction Rate · Rt below 1.0
Rt is the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If it’s above 1.0, COVID-19 will spread quickly. If it’s below 1.0, infections will slow.

Texas:
https://rt.live/us/TX
Mass:
https://rt.live/us/MA
Oregon:
https://rt.live/us/OR

 

The evidence is piling up that this affects a great deal more than just the respiratory system. It will still be a while before we know the full effects of this pandemic.

https://undark.org/2020/09/02/kids-covid-19-long-haulers/

THESE PARENTS’ FEARS are unfolding in the midst of enormous uncertainty about the effects of Covid-19 on children — and about the virus’ long-term effects on people of all ages. Basic questions about long-term Covid-19 symptoms remain unanswered, such as whether the virus lingers in people’s bodies, or whether lasting symptoms could be a result of an overactive immune response, organ damage, problems with gut bacteria, or even previously latent viruses reactivating.

Much of the concern now focuses on how long people remain contagious, and whether the virus itself lingers in the body. “In my analysis of this data, I don’t think this is the result of the persistence of the pathogen, because you clearly see the viral load go down, and that their body’s immune system is not behaving as though there’s a pathogen present,” said Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease and biosecurity expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security who has seen some long-haul patients. He notes that, in patients experiencing continuous Covid-related symptoms, markers that would indicate the immune system is still engaged in a battle with a pathogen are all normal. “I would think with a virus like this, it’s unlikely that there’s persistence of viral material that’s causing this, because you would then see a reaction of the immune system to this that’s measurable, and we don’t see that.”

Yes it is and that makes it even more important to stop these types of totally preventable pandemics from happening in the first place. The world knows the source and this will happen again and again unless the world stops it cold. Quarantining billions of people after the fact is why prevention is supremely important.

https://undark.org/2020/02/06/china-next-coronavirus-epidemic/

The real action China must take should be preventive — so epidemics like this don’t take hold in the first place.

This is not the country’s first, or second, or even third encounter with outbreaks of this nature. The SARS epidemic in 2003 got the most attention, and rightly so, because it infected more than 8,000 people worldwide and killed more than 770. But China also saw repeated bouts of bird flu in 1997 and off and on since 2003. A 2018 outbreak of swine fever wiped out about 40 percent of the country’s pig population in the course of one year.