According to this expert (Knut Wittkowski), shutdowns were exactly the opposite of what was needed. Wouldn't shock me if the government failed and failed badly.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/Cm0fJMFTuR9V/

It's doesn't make much of an expert to see that in the abstract.
https://forum.allaboutcircuits.com/threads/coronavirus.166679/post-1487444

I feel we are losing the possible effectiveness of the 8 week restrictions. It would be advantageous IMO to let as many as possible of the youngest and heathest adults get infected with CV during that time to help build herd immunity into the work force. These groups would be closely monitored and tested for antibodies to eliminate the carriers while releasing from isolation those that do have immunity and don't spread the virus to others.

It's not that simple and I don't think that the world's governments failed on a mass scale because while the economic cost is high, the cost in lives seen in scientific models was catastrophic in the beginning when trap-door (once in, it's hard to get out) decisions were made. You can't go cold turkey, do nothing even if that's the most natural way to kill the virus quickly as the death rate will also peak quickly in high risk groups. A blended, less restrictions for slightly higher deaths approach like in Sweden or what the UK started with initially is what we all will IMO eventually adopt as we wait for a vaccine or eventual natural herd immunity. Without that vaccine the population blocks that are totally isolated now with little or no cases with a general populations with no immunity are ticking time-bombs for future outbreaks.

 

You mean models like this?

https://www.foxnews.com/world/imperial-college-britain-coronavirus-lockdown-buggy-mess-unreliable

I just looked at Johns Hopkins active case map and the pandemic is virtually over in China, if you believe their numbers. (I have no reason to but what other information is there?) Wittkowski said because the Chinese didn't initially know what was happening, their lockdowns occurred later than ours (relative to their viral spread) and they had achieved herd immunity already.

I'm not saying I'm completely convinced, but this is something I plan to watch closely.

(BTW I downloaded the Imperial College code from GitHub - it did compile, but with 144 warnings.)

 

You mean models like this?

https://www.foxnews.com/world/imperial-college-britain-coronavirus-lockdown-buggy-mess-unreliable

I just looked at Johns Hopkins active case map and the pandemic is virtually over in China, if you believe their numbers. (I have no reason to but what other information is there?) Wittkowski said because the Chinese didn't initially know what was happening, their lockdowns occurred later than ours (relative to their viral spread) and they had achieved herd immunity already.

I'm not saying I'm completely convinced, but this is something I plan to watch closely.

(BTW I downloaded the Imperial College code from GitHub - it did compile, but with 144 warnings.)

China actually prevented herd immunity and enforce suppression by welding suspected spreaders into houses under gunpoint.

Scientists from the University of Edinburgh have further claimed that it is impossible to reproduce the same results from the same data using the model. The team got different results when they used different machines, and even different results from the same machines.

Exactly. Sure it was buggy (but some of those bugs are actually useful artifacts of stochastic modeling because using deterministic models is questionable for these types of events) but any software that models global behaviours of possible massive human death with a exponentially coupled virus multiplier will be buggy until actual pandemic data (in)validates the model accuracy.
https://www4.stat.ncsu.edu/~gross/BIO560 webpage/slides/Jan102013.pdf
https://www.cecan.ac.uk/blog/part-3...s-importance-complexity-science-public-health

Thinking of the Imperial College model then, a stochastic individual-based model of COVID-19 seeks to model explicitly random events at the level of the individuals in a population -- in this case the UK and the United States -- based on the best available data (which currently is not great!) and the population's differences in key characteristics, such as where they live, the social distancing practices in which they engage, the types of policies implemented and, over the course of the next year, the availability of vaccinations.

Because of schochasticity, however, a microsimulation is not run just once. Instead, given some set of initial conditions and some set or paramters within which differences are allowed to fall -- say, for example, rates of infection -- "multiple simulations are required to determine the expected range of behavior" (Keeling and Rohani 2011, p. 190).

It was The Good, The Bad and The Ugly of models with The Good still being a cold blooded thrill killer.

 

China actually prevented herd immunity and enforce suppression by welding suspected spreaders into houses under gunpoint.

While I don't doubt they've used such tactics, I do doubt it would have any meaningful affect. Utterly futile would be my guess.

 

While I don't doubt they've used such tactics, I do doubt it would have any meaningful affect. Utterly futile would be my guess.

If used during a total lockdown like around Wuhan to slow down the virus reproduction rate from exponential growth, it's a very effective way to stop protests as an alternative to brute military force on the affected population.

 

But the whole map of China shows very few active cases, not just Wuhan. Not saying I believe the numbers though.

If you watch the Wittkowski videos, he admitted that initially the shutdown made sense, since we had so little data. But once we saw what was happening, that the Wuhan virus is very similar to other coronaviruses, herd immunity could be achieved quickly by eliminating the shutdown. Seemed like the children are key; all the children are at virtually no risk, they spread the virus amongst themselves, and then their parents (who obviously would not be elderly). During this time the vulnerable are highly sequestered. He claims 4 weeks to achieve immunity in this scenario. And no suicides from layoffs and bankruptcies etcetera.

 

If you watch the Wittkowski videos, he admitted that initially the shutdown made sense, since we had so little data. But once we saw what was happening, that the Wuhan virus is very similar to other coronaviruses, herd immunity could be achieved quickly by eliminating the shutdown. Seemed like the children are key; all the children are at virtually no risk, they spread the virus amongst themselves, and then their parents (who obviously would not be elderly). During this time the vulnerable are highly sequestered. He claims 4 weeks to achieve immunity in this scenario. And no suicides from layoffs and bankruptcies etcetera.

While I agree with that, we already fell through the trap-door two months ago while going another 2 trillion dollars in debt. When states decide to climb out early into risk based mitigation they are branded as unscientific fools by the coronavirus lockdown mafia.

 

The next round of layoffs is coming soon. Banks, hospitals. My wife is an ICU nurse. She got an email from the nurses union entitled "Immediate Issues regarding upcoming Furloughs". The contractual two weeks notice from management to the union was sent last Wednesday. I guess all the "Hero" signs in front of the hospital will need to be removed!

 

Look on the bright side, she's not needed to handle the sick and dying from COVID-19 but there are plenty of other ways to die so she will eventually have the job back.

"Hero" signs
Just remember.

 

https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/may/15/coronavirus-patients-recovery-immunity-likely/

New research findings published Thursday by San Diego scientists offer good news in the worldwide race to develop a vaccine against the deadly COVID-19 disease.

The research is a collaboration between Alessandro Sette and Shane Crotty, both professors at the Center for Infectious Disease and Vaccine Research at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology. Their findings offer the first detailed look at the immune response of patients who contracted and recovered from SARS-CoV-2, which is causing the coronavirus pandemic.

"It seems likely to us that immunity is developed. At least some reasonable amount of immunity is present and is developed by most people," Crotty said. "We would consider that good news and largely fits with the expectations we would have for an antiviral immune response."

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3

Understanding adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is important for vaccine development, interpreting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pathogenesis, and calibration of pandemic control measures. Using HLA class I and II predicted peptide ‘megapools’, circulating SARS-CoV-2−specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cells were identified in ∼70% and 100% of COVID-19 convalescent patients, respectively. CD4+ T cell responses to spike, the main target of most vaccine efforts, were robust and correlated with the magnitude of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgA titers. The M, spike and N proteins each accounted for 11-27% of the total CD4+ response, with additional responses commonly targeting nsp3, nsp4, ORF3a and ORF8, among others. For CD8+ T cells, spike and M were recognized, with at least eight SARS-CoV-2 ORFs targeted. Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2−reactive CD4+ T cells in ∼40-60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘common cold’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.

 

Look on the bright side, she's not needed to handle the sick and dying from COVID-19 but there are plenty of other ways to die so she will eventually have the job back.

"Hero" signs
Just remember.

I feel a new hashtag coming on ...............................................................#ZEROSFORHEROS

 

Bob Newheart on the same bill as James Coburn, Steve McQueen, Bobby Darren, and Fess Parker? How did I miss that!(?)

 

Enlistment extensions.
https://apnews.com/87e9d44c7589bb22966ba569b603db59
Thousands defer plans to leave the military during crisis

 

koin.com/news/health/coronavirus/judge-tosses-out-oregons-coronavirus-restrictions/

Judge tosses out Oregon’s coronavirus restrictions

SALEM, Ore. (AP) — A county judge has declared Oregon Gov. Kate Brown’s coronavirus restrictions “null and void” because she didn’t have her emergency orders approved by the Legislature following 28 days.

Baker County Circuit Judge Matthew Shirtcliff made the ruling Monday in a lawsuit brought by churches who had sued saying the social-distancing directives were unconstitutional.

The suit had also argued that emergency powers only last for a month and after that Brown would have needed legislative approval. The judge agreed.

EDIT: Add decision video.

 

ICU nurse in 2020.

View attachment 207311

ICU nurse circa 1975

View attachment 207312

Just having some fun. ICU nurses are amazing.

I was friends with an ICU nurse several years back and the horror stories i heard about, yikes, the things that happen to people sometimes.

 

It's doesn't make much of an expert to see that in the abstract.
https://forum.allaboutcircuits.com/threads/coronavirus.166679/post-1487444


It's not that simple and I don't think that the world's governments failed on a mass scale because while the economic cost is high, the cost in lives seen in scientific models was catastrophic in the beginning when trap-door (once in, it's hard to get out) decisions were made. You can't go cold turkey, do nothing even if that's the most natural way to kill the virus quickly as the death rate will also peak quickly in high risk groups. A blended, less restrictions for slightly higher deaths approach like in Sweden or what the UK started with initially is what we all will IMO eventually adopt as we wait for a vaccine or eventual natural herd immunity. Without that vaccine the population blocks that are totally isolated now with little or no cases with a general populations with no immunity are ticking time-bombs for future outbreaks.

That is the guy i was talking about many posts back in this thread.

It all started from a European guys computer model that the entire world chose to believe entirely and completely without question, even though he was VERY wrong with a previous virus outbreak prediction being off by hundreds of thousands. This time it looks like he was off by millions with the death toll.
But the so called "experts" are still making guesses that are completely wrong. For example, they "predicted" that Switzerland would be the death capitol of the world in short time because of the relaxed way they were handling the pandemic. Of course that turned out to be FALSE also.

But they continue to "predict" dire consequences and they continue to be wrong. There was an election in wone fo the states where they had to go to a voting booth in person as would be normal if there was no virus. There were a ton of people that showed up to vote, and they said that close personal contact would cause a huge spike in the transmission of the virus and huge number of deaths so it was a mistake to allow such a thing. Turned out they were wrong yet again, as three dozen (a small percentage) were tested positive but NO deaths.

With all these false predictions that is why so many people now are declaring it to be politically motivated.

I could see some alarm bells going of at first, because we knew nothing of this new virus. But after a few weeks it became more well known what the effects where on average and they didnt follow the model at all. However, the extreme lockdowns continued.

I'll see if i can find the guys name unless someone else does first. He is supposed to be an expert but doesnt seem to know how to write good computer algorithms for viruses (he wrote the algorithm himself as he always does).

 

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

Findings from Investigation and analysis of re-positive cases

19 May 2020

FINDINGS FROM INVESTIGATION AND ANALYSIS OF RE-POSITIVE CASES

○ Based on active monitoring, epidemiological investigation, and laboratory testing of re-positive cases and their contacts, no evidence was found that indicated infectivity of re-positive cases.

- Of the 447 re-positive cases as of 15 May, epidemiological investigation was conducted on 285 cases and laboratory analysis on 108 cases. (*473 as of 18 May)

- From monitoring of 790 contacts of the 285 re-positive cases, no case was found that was newly infected solely from contact with re-positive cases during re-positive period.

- Virus isolation in cell culture of respiratory samples of 108 re-positive cases, all result was negative (i.e. virus not isolated).

- Of the 23 re-positive cases from which the first and the second serum samples were obtained, 96% were positive for neutralizing antibodies.

 

This pandemic can make some people crazy:

An Indian doctor who was suspended after raising concerns about a shortage of masks is again in the spotlight after officials committed him to a mental hospital. BBC Telugu's V Shankar reports.

 

This pandemic can make some people crazy:

An Indian doctor who was suspended after raising concerns about a shortage of masks is again in the spotlight after officials committed him to a mental hospital. BBC Telugu's V Shankar reports.

The poor man cracked under pressure. I wish him a quick recovery.

 

Update from the CDC.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html

Person-to-person spread
The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).
Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks.
These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.
COVID-19 may be spread by people who are not showing symptoms.
The virus spreads easily between people
How easily a virus spreads from person-to-person can vary. Some viruses are highly contagious, like measles, while other viruses do not spread as easily. Another factor is whether the spread is sustained, which means it goes from person-to-person without stopping.

The virus that causes COVID-19 is spreading very easily and sustainably between people. Information from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic suggest that this virus is spreading more efficiently than influenza, but not as efficiently as measles, which is highly contagious.

The virus does not spread easily in other ways

COVID-19 is a new disease and we are still learning about how it spreads. It may be possible for COVID-19 to spread in other ways, but these are not thought to be the main ways the virus spreads.

From touching surfaces or objects. It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes. This is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads, but we are still learning more about this virus.

From animals to people. At this time, the risk of COVID-19 spreading from animals to people is considered to be low. Learn about COVID-19 and pets and other animals.

From people to animals. It appears that the virus that causes COVID-19 can spread from people to animals in some situations. CDC is aware of a small number of pets worldwide, including cats and dogs, reported to be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19, mostly after close contact with people with COVID-19. Learn what you should do if you have pets.