Like most I am pretty tired of everything tired of anything and everything coronavirus pandemic related. Above all else I am tired of models. When I was a kid I built models, one 57 Ford I was really pleased with. Then of course models like Christie Brinkley were nice. Now it seems the buzz word is all about models. Want to know what the winter of 2020-2021 will be? Check a model but make sure you check a good model with a proven track record. We have entirely too many models we are working from on this entire virus affair and mere observations would indicate most of them suck. Then of course those who create these models need to tweak them about daily. Then too, even a decent model would need good numbers to work with and throughout this crisis good numbers are rare at best going back to the origins of of this virus. I really don't recall a time in my life when I have seen so much misinformation disseminated. The model says the curve will flatten. So if a curve flattens is it still a curve? I have lost track of how many models are even out there anymore? I guess we just find a model we like and get on board with it?

Ron

 

Let's turn the USA into one big, magical, mystery tour. If chloroquine doesn't work, let's try lysergic acid diethylamide.

 

Like most I am pretty tired of everything tired of anything and everything coronavirus pandemic related. Above all else I am tired of models. When I was a kid I built models, one 57 Ford I was really pleased with. Then of course models like Christie Brinkley were nice. Now it seems the buzz word is all about models. Want to know what the winter of 2020-2021 will be? Check a model but make sure you check a good model with a proven track record. We have entirely too many models we are working from on this entire virus affair and mere observations would indicate most of them suck. Then of course those who create these models need to tweak them about daily. Then too, even a decent model would need good numbers to work with and throughout this crisis good numbers are rare at best going back to the origins of of this virus. I really don't recall a time in my life when I have seen so much misinformation disseminated. The model says the curve will flatten. So if a curve flattens is it still a curve? I have lost track of how many models are even out there anymore? I guess we just find a model we like and get on board with it?

Ron

These computer Models are like ***holes, everybody has one. Models are never wrong, they just need adjustment.

The only thing that really matters is human nature and experience shows eventually humans will value the freedom to make their own choices over a safe prison.

 

Let's turn the USA into one big, magical, mystery tour. If chloroquine doesn't work, let's try lysergic acid diethylamide.

View attachment 204326

Timothy Leary Those were some interesting years.

Ron

 

In my state, I think we are headed into a seriously over damped situation.

That’s likely our situation here in Illinois. I’m ok with it so far. Our governor surprised me in a good way today by talking about the need to get going again. He runs the most over-spent state in the country, so perhaps that is weighing on his calculus. We’re about 5 days past the peak according to the models, so that feels good.

 

These computer Models are like ***holes, everybody has one. Models are never wrong, they just need adjustment.

"All models are wrong but some are useful"
- George Box, the father of statistical modeling.

I’ve always loved that quote because it’s exactly my experience after years of wrangling models. The best model I ever made was arguably “wrong”. Useful? You bet. It even led to discoveries and industrial processes extrapolated well out of its range.

 

That’s likely our situation here in Illinois. I’m ok with it so far. Our governor surprised me in a good way today by talking about the need to get going again. He runs the most over-spent state in the country, so perhaps that is weighing on his calculus. We’re about 5 days past the peak according to the models, so that feels good.

The move in that direction is gaining strength.
https://www.kptv.com/news/oregon-wa...cle_6edc9fea-7dc5-11ea-a9ee-6716c112f71e.html

Oregon, Washington, California form pact to identify path for reopening public life, businesses

 

Well that's what they did in china. Now the latest there is CV is waxing again instead of waning.

 

Well that's what they did in china. Now the latest there is CV is waxing again instead of waning.

I'm certain that will happen everywhere, and that's by design. The challenge is to achieve a manageable steady state.

I hope they don't get overly detailed. Just divide us into at most 5 population risk groups and establish guidelines/rules for each group. See how it goes, adjust as needed. For instance the under 30, no-other-risk-factor crowd can probably go back to work right now. Wear a mask and keep your distance. Over 60 with health problems, stay home. Get the kids back to school, first topic hygiene.

 

​

 

What do we call an accurate model?
.
.
.
A simulation.

 

What do we call an accurate model?
.
.
.
A simulation.

That's about it.

Ron

 

We never needed to flatten the curve...

 

Why is NY hardest hit?

New York’s mass transit system–mostly its subways–is, by a huge margin, the most relied-upon public transportation system in the U.S. It carries a remarkable 2,275,000,000 riders per year. The second most-used public transit system is the Washington Metro, which carries only 238,000,000 riders per year, just over 10% of New York’s total. Chicago’s “L” carries fewer than 10% as many riders as New York’s subways. Public transportation, especially a subway, is no doubt the place where one comes into contact with the largest number of random strangers, and is foreseeably a common site of transmission.

As I've been saying...

 

It didn't really take

to figure that one out.

 

It didn't really take
View attachment 204406
to figure that one out.

Yet NYC never took the lockdown seriously enough to shut it down.

 

Why is NY hardest hit?



As I've been saying...

I said same many post ago. Figure this, when hurricane Sandy was coming NYC literally shut down. That included the mass transit system well ahead of the storm. Being NYC born and raised I know what dense population is. I relied on the subway and bus systems. As to NJ? A large percentage of those from Jersey work in NYC and commute daily. None of how this spread in congested areas should come as a surprise to anyone. Today? You could not pay me enough to move back there between laws and taxes it's not where I want to be other than visits.

Ron

 

Let's turn the USA into one big, magical, mystery tour. If chloroquine doesn't work, let's try lysergic acid diethylamide.

View attachment 204326

Lest we forget:

Edit: I am not really suggesting anybody take LSD.

 

Why is NY hardest hit?
As I've been saying...

But they could have the last laugh in this, when the next wave hits they will have the herd immunity that most of the country won't.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...-cases-adding-to-success-in-fighting-pandemic