… powered by solar activity through cosmic rays. At least I think that us what Sabine is saying.
Does the sun cause earthquakes?
Bob
Does the sun cause earthquakes?
Bob
We examine the claim that solar-terrestrial interaction, as measured by sunspots, solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic activity, might play a role in triggering earthquakes. We count the number of earthquakes having magnitudes that exceed chosen thresholds in calendar years, months, and days, and we order these counts by the corresponding rank of annual, monthly, and daily averages of the solar-terrestrial variables. We measure the statistical significance of the difference between the earthquake-number distributions below and above the median of the solar-terrestrial averages by χ2 and Student's t tests. Across a range of earthquake magnitude thresholds, we find no consistent and statistically significant distributional differences. We also introduce time lags between the solar-terrestrial variables and the number of earthquakes, but again no statistically significant distributional difference is found. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of no solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes.
In other words they need to predict an earthquake(s) for validation of any real physical connection.To guard against inspection and selection biases, advocates of solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes also need to demonstrate the persistence and statistical significance of their claimed correlations against future data. This has not been done. And until it is, the hypothesis that solar-terrestrial interaction can trigger earthquakes must be regarded with significant skepticism.
She does not say solar activity can predict earthquakes, in fact she says the opposite:In other words they need to predict an earthquake(s) for validation of any real physical connection.
BobProblem with using solar activity to predict earthquakes is well, it’s difficult to predict solar activity… Though the sun is known to have a periodic cycle, so if this result holds up it’d tell us that during years of high solar activity we’re more likely to see big earthquakes.
Exactly, she seems to have significant skepticism. That proves my point in posting the previous paper.She does not say solar activity can predict earthquakes, in fact she says the opposite:
Bob
Sure, but it's an old hypothesis.I was commenting on whether ir not it was proven. I thought the hypothesis was interesting.
Bob
Solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices, plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of earthquakes. Maximum quake frequency occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity. Terrestrial solar flare effects which are the actual coupling mechanisms which trigger quakes appear to be either abrupt accelerations in the earth's angular velocity or surges of telluric currents in the earth's crust. The graphs presented in this paper permit probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, and when used in conjunction with local indicators may provide a significant tool for specific earthquake prediction.
by Jake Hertz
by Jake Hertz