Yikes! The Earth is s piezo buzzer

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
9,435
She says: "Yes, correlation doesn’t necessarily imply causation, but correlations are useful for forecasting even if you don’t understand the causation."

Maybe, maybe not.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50211
Insignificant solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes
We examine the claim that solar-terrestrial interaction, as measured by sunspots, solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic activity, might play a role in triggering earthquakes. We count the number of earthquakes having magnitudes that exceed chosen thresholds in calendar years, months, and days, and we order these counts by the corresponding rank of annual, monthly, and daily averages of the solar-terrestrial variables. We measure the statistical significance of the difference between the earthquake-number distributions below and above the median of the solar-terrestrial averages by χ2 and Student's t tests. Across a range of earthquake magnitude thresholds, we find no consistent and statistically significant distributional differences. We also introduce time lags between the solar-terrestrial variables and the number of earthquakes, but again no statistically significant distributional difference is found. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of no solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes.
To guard against inspection and selection biases, advocates of solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes also need to demonstrate the persistence and statistical significance of their claimed correlations against future data. This has not been done. And until it is, the hypothesis that solar-terrestrial interaction can trigger earthquakes must be regarded with significant skepticism.
In other words they need to predict an earthquake(s) for validation of any real physical connection.
 

Thread Starter

BobTPH

Joined Jun 5, 2013
4,738
In other words they need to predict an earthquake(s) for validation of any real physical connection.
She does not say solar activity can predict earthquakes, in fact she says the opposite:

Problem with using solar activity to predict earthquakes is well, it’s difficult to predict solar activity… Though the sun is known to have a periodic cycle, so if this result holds up it’d tell us that during years of high solar activity we’re more likely to see big earthquakes.
Bob
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
9,435
I was commenting on whether ir not it was proven. I thought the hypothesis was interesting.

Bob
Sure, but it's an old hypothesis.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters
Volume 3, 1967–1968, Pages 417-425
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0012821X67900714
Solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices, plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of earthquakes. Maximum quake frequency occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity. Terrestrial solar flare effects which are the actual coupling mechanisms which trigger quakes appear to be either abrupt accelerations in the earth's angular velocity or surges of telluric currents in the earth's crust. The graphs presented in this paper permit probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, and when used in conjunction with local indicators may provide a significant tool for specific earthquake prediction.
 
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