where does the growth end?

Thread Starter

praondevou

Joined Jul 9, 2011
2,942
It might flip-flop as China and India gain upper hand, but the overall picture will remain.
This is one problem I see with emerging third world countries. People living there are even less concerned with the future of the planet.
All they want is to live exactly like us, unsustainably.

On a side note: I was just thinking what will be the future of aviation if we run out of fuel. It will surely not be an Airbus running an batteries...
 

loosewire

Joined Apr 25, 2008
1,686
@ praondeevou,look at your labels and let us know how much made in Canada

stuff you can find or know about. Containers of raw goods go to China and

come back as for goods,and are still cheap.Did you the sixty minutes program

a bout the Apple plant in China,been there for years. Steve Jobs don't look so

good any more they use to have a word for that.What about your hockey stuff

where is it made.
 

justtrying

Joined Mar 9, 2011
439
This is one problem I see with emerging third world countries. People living there are even less concerned with the future of the planet.
All they want is to live exactly like us, unsustainably.

On a side note: I was just thinking what will be the future of aviation if we run out of fuel. It will surely not be an Airbus running an batteries...
exactly, unlearned lessons. When reading literature from post WWII, you can see a rise in overall care for humanity, but the outcome of WWII was that one country came out on top financially and so the world goes round and round now...

Check out the blimp http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2011-10/24/solar-ship
 

justtrying

Joined Mar 9, 2011
439
shoes made China - one season, cannot fix. Only buy shoewear made in Spain, Brazil, Portugal. Very expensive, but very good.

Apple is a disease...
 

Thread Starter

praondevou

Joined Jul 9, 2011
2,942
@ praondevou,look at your labels and let us know how much made in Canada stuff you can find or know about. Containers of raw goods go to China and come back as for goods,and are still cheap.Did you the sixty minutes program a bout the Apple plant in China,been there for years. Steve Jobs don't look so good any more they use to have a word for that.What about your hockey stuff where is it made.
You already know the answer. Almost all labels show Made in China. I'm surprised when I find something made somewhere else.

Great link about the solarship.

Great inventions still to come. The challenges will be different with limited resources though.
 

loosewire

Joined Apr 25, 2008
1,686
They announced today that Walmart,was as large as many small countries

around the world. Walmart a nation,Walmart is the Hong Gong of U.S.A.

Many cities have voted down there expanstion progarm, by blocking new stores.

They started with big stores,now they want to rebuild to super Walmarts. Just

think,if some stores went of business, a local business would come back.They like

the super high way intersections,home owners watch the intersections and be

ready to go to your commission to vote it out.
 

MrChips

Joined Oct 2, 2009
30,720
I think I found the answer to my initial question here:
http://socialsciences.arts.unsw.edu.au/tsw/TSWmain.html

It talks about global injustice and living standards, which according to this article has to decrease for us in order to create a sustainable and fair world economy. Not the kind of information people will be pleased with.
I am well acquainted with Ted Trainer's work.

Also there is a Transition Initiative where you are. Check it out:

http://www.transitionnetwork.org/

http://www.facebook.com/groups/transitioncanada/
 

studiot

Joined Nov 9, 2007
4,998
He wrote this in 1973.
So? Does that make it any more wrong than

"The price of Freedom is eternal vigilance" which was written in the late 1700s?

BTW I also posted a reference to a text, contemporaneous with Schumaker, that put forward your argument and a follow-up, contemporaneous with the present day.
 

MrChips

Joined Oct 2, 2009
30,720
There are many writers and economists who have arrived at the same conclusion.

Ted Trainer and E.F. Schumacher are only two of many such people.

http://socialsciences.arts.unsw.edu.au/tsw/TSWmain.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Is_Beautiful

My favorite read is Charles Eisenstein's "Sacred Economics" which you can read online for free because Charles is a strong believer of the "Gift Economy".

http://sacred-economics.com/

Charles' books and essays make for long reading. To get a sense of the essence of his work, read Chapter 5.

http://www.realitysandwich.com/sacred_economics_ch_5_corpse_commons
 

Thread Starter

praondevou

Joined Jul 9, 2011
2,942
In my post #7 I asked about oil scarcity. I found a good and comprehensive overview of what will probably happen.

http://www.worldsalvation.info/2011/01/solutions-to-peak-oil-%E2%80%93-part-ii-consequences-and-myths/

An idea just came to me: Is it likely or thinkable that a government will retain the last oil reserves for law enforcement, i.e. police or maybe even military?
People could then be forced to work and pay taxes without being able to stand up and fight. Much like in ancient times. Is this too futuristic?
 
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Thread Starter

praondevou

Joined Jul 9, 2011
2,942
Ok that's like 40 years at current consumption. I feel reassured. :)

They will not be so stupid to continue at current consumption levels if they only hold this reserve, so there will be changes, that's for sure... Inevitably.

Depending on who you you listen to people may believe that drastic changes are still a lifetime away...
 

MrChips

Joined Oct 2, 2009
30,720
Wait a minute, not sure where you got the 40 years supply.
The US consumes about 20 million barrels per day while the whole world uses 80 million.
The SPR will supply the US for about 40 days and the world for 10 days (assuming the US let them have some of it).
 

Thread Starter

praondevou

Joined Jul 9, 2011
2,942
Wait a minute, not sure where you got the 40 years supply.
The US consumes about 20 million barrels per day while the whole world uses 80 million.
The SPR will supply the US for about 40 days and the world for 10 days (assuming the US let them have some of it).

Oops, I didn't pay attention to /day. I assumed it was per year. :rolleyes: Silly me.

Well, 40 days then.... that's better than nothing ...
 

Wendy

Joined Mar 24, 2008
23,415
I'm not too worried overall, though I am not a fan of burning every last drop of oil before we move on train of thought. For one thing, oil is critical for the plastic industry, and in the long run much less damaging to the environment. Just because you have always done something one way doesn't mean there are better out there.

Thing is, we are already cultivation specialized algae for petrolatum products. While this is more of the same, it isn't. The algae take CO2 and sunlight, and make it into fuel. We burn the fuel, and get CO2 again. It is a closed loop.
 

studiot

Joined Nov 9, 2007
4,998
The idea that things will run out is older still.

Thus wrote Leibig (a famous german chemist) in the 1850s - before artificial fertiliser was invented:

Great Britain is like a vampire hanging on the breast of Europe, sucking its life blood...... inevitably wars will be fought over such resources
Britain bought up the contents of Sciliian catacombes for (ancient) manure when the (yes) manure ran out.

Technology has advanced, not retreated since that time, and the world with it.
Technologies will come and be replaced by better ones or different ones as their particular raw materials come into short supply.

It's called progress.

But that is no excuse for wanton waste or profligacy.
 

loosewire

Joined Apr 25, 2008
1,686
What about the weather,we have enough guys spread over a wide area

to compare big weather.As kids,family talking has the weather patterns

change. Has rapid communications changed,we learn more about weather

than we did before. What is your opinion of weather change,storms tearing

down the same house in two years.
 

Thread Starter

praondevou

Joined Jul 9, 2011
2,942
I'm not too worried overall, though I am not a fan of burning every last drop of oil before we move on train of thought.

Thing is, we are already cultivation specialized algae for petrolatum products. While this is more of the same, it isn't. The algae take CO2 and sunlight, and make it into fuel. We burn the fuel, and get CO2 again. It is a closed loop.
I understand why the majority of us is not too concerned. It`s because oil will not end from one day to the other and because we cannot visualize how our world will look like without it. The predicted end varies also, 20 to ?? years depending on who you ask. Apparently we have plenty of time to develop technologies to replace oil.
At least that`s what we think. It may not be true.

Less new oil reserves are being discovered. Everyone hopes for a miracle solution. Thing is, with oil reserves shrinking, consequently production will also decrease, which will lead to higher prices for everything that is being produced with the help of oil, which is almost everything, at least indirectly.
To advance technologies we need energy, transportation etc. So there may be not enough time to develop them...

I`m not an economist or anything but it seems logical to me that without cheap replacement for oil everything will change, drastically. Aviation, transportation, heating, even modern agriculture. Military interventions won`t be possible.

Cheap imports from India, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan won`t exist.
This list is probably very long.
 

Wendy

Joined Mar 24, 2008
23,415
Again, this is not hypothetical, Airline fuel oil has already been synthesized and tested from algae. People do not like genetic research, but it is only a matter of time before acceptable substitutes come out. The point I would make is not that we are running out, which in the long view we aren't, but do we have to convert every drop of fossil fuel into CO2 before we change over? It is going to happen, better sooner than later.

It doesn't have to be cheap, but other technologies will be coming online. This planet is awash with energy, we just need to tap into some other resources.
 
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