Speaking of fear, this is scary:

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/13/spacex-spcx-stock-ipo-price.html

SpaceX stock sinks for a second-straight day, nearing $135 IPO price

What's scary about it? I think that's not at all unusual for IPOs. They frequently get an initial surge and then settle down somewhere in the vicinity of their initial offering price, sometimes higher, sometimes lower. It's known as the IPO Pop.

 

What's scary about it? I think that's not at all unusual for IPOs. They frequently get an initial surge and then settle down somewhere in the vicinity of their initial offering price, sometimes higher, sometimes lower. It's known as the IPO Pop.

Apple, Microsoft, Intel, Google, Nvidia did not behave as SpaceX has after one month.

 

I'm under the impression that you would really really like to see it fail ...

 

Apple, Microsoft, Intel, Google, Nvidia did not behave as SpaceX has after one month.

So? Thousands of others have, including Facebook (Meta), which had an IPO price of $38, when up to $42, then was down to $20 within about three months. Telsa hovered around it's IPO price after an initial rise for years and only took off after a decade of public trading. Many other big names had very lackluster performance after an initial bounce. The performance of a stock in the first month has virtually no long-term predictive value.

 

Yet here you (and others) are insinuating that these volatile stocks will inevitably rise in the longer term, that's a long term prediction.

Where have I insinuated that a volatile stock will inevitably rise in the longer term?????

No stock will inevitably rise in the long term. There are NO guarantees that ANY company will be around five or ten years from now.

But even if I were to, somehow, make that claim, it would NOT be based on the performance of the stock in the first month after its IPO. It would be based on the underlying fundamentals of the specific company, the industry it is operating in, and where that industry is headed. But even then, there is no guarantee that even the leaders in a rapidly evolving industry will be the ones to survive.

If a stock is highly volatile, without any thing explaining it, such as a pending FDA approval, or an uncertain regulatory landscape, or supply chain uncertainties, then that is often (but not always) a poor harbinger for it's long-term prospects.

 

Where have I insinuated that a volatile stock will inevitably rise in the longer term?????

No stock will inevitably rise in the long term. There are NO guarantees that ANY company will be around five or ten years from now.

But even if I were to, somehow, make that claim, it would NOT be based on the performance of the stock in the first month after its IPO. It would be based on the underlying fundamentals of the specific company, the industry it is operating in, and where that industry is headed. But even then, there is no guarantee that even the leaders in a rapidly evolving industry will be the ones to survive.

If a stock is highly volatile, without any thing explaining it, such as a pending FDA approval, or an uncertain regulatory landscape, or supply chain uncertainties, then that is often (but not always) a poor harbinger for it's long-term prospects.

You replied to deleted post, deleted many hours ago if I recall.

 

You replied to deleted post, deleted many hours ago if I recall.

It appears to be an extreme case of cross posting. I replied last night, but it appears AAC didn't act on it until a while ago. Probably got hung up in the home network somehow.

 

It's known as the IPO Pop.

And it averages about 8% if you're clever enough to get out early before the fall. That's the carrot to get investors to bother with getting in on an IPO. The fact that it's not larger, and is dropping over time, shows that the underwriters are getting better at setting the price so that little is left on the table. Once the stock is fully public, all bets are off.

Like a rocket, an initial surge followed by a return to Earth is the typical and predictable pattern. There are MANY stocks for which their all time high is a week or so after their IPO. Some recover and some do not.

 

And it averages about 8% if you're clever enough to get out early before the fall. That's the carrot to get investors to bother with getting in on an IPO. The fact that it's not larger, and is dropping over time, shows that the underwriters are getting better at setting the price so that little is left on the table. Once the stock is fully public, all bets are off.

Like a rocket, an initial surge followed by a return to Earth is the typical and predictable pattern. There are MANY stocks for which their all time high is a week or so after their IPO. Some recover and some do not.

SpaceX raised 85 billion on its IPO. What did it do next? It issued debt instruments to the tune of 20 billion, why? to pay off other costly loans used to finance its AI spending. Its hugely indebted and most of its spending is on AI not space.

It is three businesses in one (and that's an alarm bell too), starlink, rocket launches and AI, only starlink makes a profit and the losses made by space and AI is almost twice the starlink profit. it has obligatory debt costs too, of 1.5 billion a year, this is insanely speculative, run by an unaccountable fantasist.

Perhaps he needs his Mars base to escape his creditors one day.

 

Perhaps he needs his Mars base to escape his creditors one day.

Now I understand!

 

SpaceX dropped to $126 at 6:45 in after hours trading, no doubt because the launch failed. I suspect that's institutional traders selling before the market reopens today, anticipating a drop after trading opens and perhaps hoping to buy back at a lower price.

 

SpaceX dropped to $126 at 6:45 in after hours trading, no doubt because the launch failed. I suspect that's institutional traders selling before the market reopens today, anticipating a drop after trading opens and perhaps hoping to buy back at a lower price.

Most likely, but not just institutional traders, but also a lot of mom and pop day traders, too.

 

So? Thousands of others have, including Facebook (Meta), which had an IPO price of $38, when up to $42, then was down to $20 within about three months. Telsa hovered around it's IPO price after an initial rise for years and only took off after a decade of public trading. Many other big names had very lackluster performance after an initial bounce. The performance of a stock in the first month has virtually no long-term predictive value.

Revisiting this, it's trading at 114 just now, why would anyone buy it at 135, if it's expected to immediately fall in price after IPO? looks to me like those who excitedly invested screwed up, now looks like a better time to buy, in fact sell what you have and buy it back next week!

 

...why would anyone buy it at 135, if it's expected to immediately fall in price after IPO?

Because of the typical 8% premium enjoyed by IPO participants, offered by the underwriters to encourage participation. Once the shares are on the open market, they are subject to the same whims of the market as every other equity and there's no way to capture a "sure thing" so much as the offering premium.

Personally, I blew it by getting greedy. The price topped out at 225.64, a gain of 67%. I was hoping for 100% or more and so missed the top. Now I await the crater. But I'm patient, and still believe the company will have enough success to bring the share price back to the black. Diamond hands.

 

Because of the typical 8% premium enjoyed by IPO participants, offered by the underwriters to encourage participation. Once the shares are on the open market, they are subject to the same whims of the market as every other equity and there's no way to capture a "sure thing" so much as the offering premium.

Personally, I blew it by getting greedy. The price topped out at 225.64, a gain of 67%. I was hoping for 100% or more and so missed the top. Now I await the crater. But I'm patient, and still believe the company will have enough success to bring the share price back to the black. Diamond hands.

I don't look at daily moves (as I indicated). I accumulate assets.

I am proud to own a piece of every launched SpaceX rocket.

That makes me a rocket engineer. One more tick off the bucket list.

 

Because of the typical 8% premium enjoyed by IPO participants, offered by the underwriters to encourage participation. Once the shares are on the open market, they are subject to the same whims of the market as every other equity and there's no way to capture a "sure thing" so much as the offering premium.

Personally, I blew it by getting greedy. The price topped out at 225.64, a gain of 67%. I was hoping for 100% or more and so missed the top. Now I await the crater. But I'm patient, and still believe the company will have enough success to bring the share price back to the black. Diamond hands.

Nudging 112 now, there's a lot of concern out there about the AI casino, even Alphabet is falling despite very positive profitability announced yesterday, all of this is due to insane expenditure on the AI wheel of fortune, all of these firms expecting to hit the jackpot oh well it isn't their money, what do they care.

I should setup a firm and gamble other people's money, just keep betting investing and sooner or later I'm bound to hit it big.

 

I am proud to own a piece of every launched SpaceX rocket.

If you live in Texas you might find a piece in your backyard later today!

 

If you live in Texas you might find a piece in your backyard later today!

If you were paying attention, you'd know I live in Florida (exactly 184 miles SE of Tampa -- as the crow flies).

I'd need one to blow up over my house (wrong direction -- would require significant multiple failures).

Unfortunately, with a 99% success rate with over 600 flights (Falcon 9), the likelihood of this happening is pretty low.

 

If you were paying attention, you'd know I live in Florida (exactly 184 miles SE of Tampa -- as the crow flies).

I'd need one to blow up over my house (wrong direction -- would require significant multiple failures).

Unfortunately, with a 99% success rate with over 600 flights (Falcon 9), the likelihood of this happening is pretty low.

So, fingers crossed then, it might be your lucky day.

 

So, fingers crossed then, it might be your lucky day.

You can only hope.

(I've never understood how one could experience joy in the failure of a fellow man. I guess that's just the way I'm built.)