Tesla Motors is Circling The Drain

Thread Starter

Glenn Holland

Joined Dec 26, 2014
703
According to the news, Tesla's stock fell another 7% today.

Investors are getting restless about a multi- billion dollar company that hasn't turned a profit. :(
 

JohnInTX

Joined Jun 26, 2012
4,787
Yeah, nice pop. Two big shorters reversed course and went long. Tesla moved up the earnings report which bodes well for showing a profit maybe. I'll bet that they showed a profit and free cash flow looks better and the stock will get another bump.

But not to rain too hard on your parade, I also think:
1) it's easy to go long when the stock is trading near 52 week lows, particularly this one.
2) rumblings on the street about TSLA pulling all the stops to push cash flow including stretching accounts payable, selling ZEV credits etc.
3) they introduced the LEMUR - lower cost, mid-range. Supposedly done by packing fewer cells into the same physical sized battery. Best guesses based on their stated cost/KWh saves them $1K but price is reduced $4K. Added to the fact that nobody, even their sales staff knew it was coming doesn't inspire confidence.
4) the sudden removal of Full Self Driving (FSD) from the product mix. WTF? They've been selling FSD for 2 years now on all models, taking money for it ($3K on top of $5K for EAP on Model 3) saying that the hardware is standard on all Teslas and a software update when it's ready would be forthcoming - FSD features were supposed to be evident in Version 9 software for the car with not much showing when V9 was released. Class-action suits or mass refunds coming on this one, I think.
5) the lack of stock bumps for the MidRange 3 and announcement of their own AI chip (coming in 6 months - bank on it ...) might mean that the days of wild enthusiasm for anything Elon muses about on Twitter are over. Other stuff about GF3 in China, Model Y, Semi, Pickup also haven't moved the needle much. That would leave TSLA in a position where results matter so.. Q3 better show some.

But heck, good news so far.
Hang on!
 
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wayneh

Joined Sep 9, 2010
18,134
Time to dissect the reports.
Yes and no. You could completely understand the reports front to back and still have no idea how the stock price will react. It's unlikely you'd uncover anything not already priced into the stock. The stock is not priced by analysts, it's priced by stockholders. Reports are only one small factor that influences those stockholders.
 

JohnInTX

Joined Jun 26, 2012
4,787
Yes and no. You could completely understand the reports front to back and still have no idea how the stock price will react. It's unlikely you'd uncover anything not already priced into the stock. The stock is not priced by analysts, it's priced by stockholders. Reports are only one small factor that influences those stockholders.
Totally agree. Eventually though, hard realities must prevail and the reports shed some light on those.
 

Thread Starter

Glenn Holland

Joined Dec 26, 2014
703
Now General Motors is discontinuing it's Chey Volt EV:

https://www.designnews.com/electron...159869?ADTRK=UBM&elq_mid=6646&elq_cid=1082446

Goes to show you that the free market for EVs is just not there. In fact, electric utilities in California (PG&E, Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas & Electric) have imposed a surcharge on the ratepayer's bill to provide funding for EV charging stations. Subsidy on top of subsidy and there's still no real market for EVs.

A prime example of the phrase "Something that's so bad that you can't give it away".
 

cmartinez

Joined Jan 17, 2007
8,834
Now General Motors is discontinuing it's Chey Volt EV:

https://www.designnews.com/electron...159869?ADTRK=UBM&elq_mid=6646&elq_cid=1082446

Goes to show you that the free market for EVs is just not there. In fact, electric utilities in California (PG&E, Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas & Electric) have imposed a surcharge on the ratepayer's bill to provide funding for EV charging stations. Subsidy on top of subsidy and there's still no real market for EVs.

A prime example of the phrase "Something that's so bad that you can't give it away".
A disaster almost a decade in the making:

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...olt-dance-hey-gm-we-want-our-bailout-back-now
 

wayneh

Joined Sep 9, 2010
18,134
The disaster already happened back then. GM has been a shuffling zombie ever since the government stole it from the shareholders in 2008, to protect the interests of political supporters. It was a temporary stay of execution that has taken longer to play out than it should have. Anyone that’s ever put down a pet knows how painful it is, but also how important it is to do what’s right.
 

shortbus

Joined Sep 30, 2009
10,049
Tesla (and a few other big tech companies) are being kept afloat by the government and Tesla's one of the top of the list:
Why did you just limit it to big tech? There are many big and little companies kept on "corporate welfare". And that isn't even counting the soy bean farmers.
 

wayneh

Joined Sep 9, 2010
18,134
Why did you just limit it to big tech? There are many big and little companies kept on "corporate welfare". And that isn't even counting the soy bean farmers.
There is no industry category that does not have the government intervening with their thumb on the scale in favor of one player or another. A millstone around the neck of prosperity.
 

Thread Starter

Glenn Holland

Joined Dec 26, 2014
703
Why did you just limit it to big tech? There are many big and little companies kept on "corporate welfare". And that isn't even counting the soy bean farmers.
Because Big Tech is driving the cost of housing through the roof in every large city in the U.S. and around the world. It's also creating a monstrosity of a bubble that will burst and take down the entire economy like 2008.

The Dow Jones is now experiencing huge losses and it's just a matter of time before the bubble burst and the crash hits.
 
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