I know it's a delicate subject. So I'll leave it to the mods to let this thread be or not. Either way, it's a fascinating, though morbid, subject.

Israel’s Pager Attacks Have Changed the World

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The targets won’t be just terrorists. Our computers are vulnerable, and increasingly so are our cars, our refrigerators, our home thermostats and many other useful things in our orbits. Targets are everywhere.

 

Someone will start a service to scan batteries for explosives. We'll also stop buying certain products from unfriendly countries...

The US Government wants to ban Chinese EVs to protect our infrastructure from hacking.

 

MOD NOTE: It IS a sensitive topic, but it is also a legitimate technical discussion. So let's keep it as a technical discussion and keep the politics out of it and we will be fine.

 

MOD NOTE: It IS a sensitive topic, but it is also a legitimate technical discussion. So let's keep it as a technical discussion and keep the politics out of it and we will be fine.

It is a very sensitive topic. So yeah, I too beg all participants to stick to the subject and keep politics and ideologies out.

The mods have my full support and understanding on the handling of this thread.

 

Someone will start a service to scan batteries for explosives. We'll also stop buying certain products from unfriendly countries...

The US Government wants to ban Chinese EVs to protect our infrastructure from hacking.

Aren't there already technologies out there that could "sniff" for exposives in containers and boxes?

 

The circumstances of the (presumed) Israeli attack were unique. I am having a hard time imagining how some other group would benefit from such an attack or have the opportunity to pull it off. I’m not going to lose sleep over it.

 

Using explosives in a mass consumer product is really bad operational form and IMO borders (the law of targeting with booby-traps) on a technical violation of the rules of war. We've (all military forces, not just the USA) been down this road before with toe poppers and other wide area use SOG weapons during various 'wars'. Eventually all sides use them, train to avoid them and then the civilians fall prey to them.
The M-14 Anti-Personnel mine, known as the Toe Popper, and the V40 Mini-Fragmentation Grenade are examples.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_mines_in_Cambodia
https://nolandmines.com/explosive_hazards/minesM14.htm
These things were killing and maiming children and non-combatant civilians long after the conflicts were over.

IMO, these pager booby-trap attacks are counterproductive in a war vs terrorism.

 

IMO, these pager booby-trap attacks are counterproductive in a war vs terrorism.

Except they were purchased by the targets, for the targets, and worn by the targets, for militant purposes.

It is as surgical, precision, a strike has ever been made, and had great strategic effect (over three stages).

This type of attack will never work again, but it sure as hell beats cluster bombs near and around civilians.

 

I would agree with @joeyd999 it’s a one trick pony, now exposed would be hard to do again. As @nsaspook said, counter measures to it in the future will slow another such a wide targeted attack.

kv

 

Aren't there already technologies out there that could "sniff" for exposives in containers and boxes?

There are, but you have to know that you need to use them. Maybe some export and import clearance personal were also involved. Or import clearance could be lacking, or they look the other way when it's a shipment for certain organizations.

 

Except they were purchased by the targets, for the targets, and worn by the targets, for militant purposes.

It is as surgical, precision, a strike has ever been made, and had great strategic effect (over three stages).

This type of attack will never work again, but it sure as hell beats cluster bombs near and around civilians.

The targets were mainly replaceable street grunts (useful idiots) that were given pagers because it easier and cheaper than training them in simple OPSEC. The strategic effect is to make them go back to more secure communications methods like simple message delivery from street agents. Many years of effort (15 years on some reports) for something even the CIA had long been hesitant to use due to the high risk to innocent civilians for IMO very little intelligence or military advantage for what was expended to make it happen. If I believed this would have any long term effect of the elimination of Hezbollah fighters it would be worth it but that IMO is very unlikely.

 

I rather not comment.

 

If I believed this would have any long term effect of the elimination of Hezbollah fighters it would be worth it but that IMO is very unlikely.

In that case, only regime change in Iran will be adequate.

 

In that case, only regime change in Iran will be adequate.

That's true, has been since 1979 when I was first there along with many others since then.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_12170

 

Direct confrontation with Iran is the next step after the proxy groups - Hamas, Hezbollah and Houti - are largely neutered. The course of events will then depend on Iran's choices. They're spending a lot to have nukes as one of their options.

 

Direct confrontation with Iran is the next step after the proxy groups - Hamas, Hezbollah and Houti - are largely neutered. The course of events will then depend on Iran's choices. They're spending a lot to have nukes as one of their options.

Having nukes never stopped anyone from being stupid during the Cold War.

Iran is using proxy groups because their military power is a joke compared to the West.
NSFW Language

 

Having nukes never stopped anyone from being stupid during the Cold War.

Iran is using proxy groups because their military power is a joke compared to the West.

Given the way we fight battles these days, it'd just be another forever war, during which we will be held liable for the lives lost and the damage done (AKA "nation building").

 

The targets were mainly replaceable street grunts (useful idiots) that were given pagers because it easier and cheaper than training them in simple OPSEC. The strategic effect is to make them go back to more secure communications methods like simple message delivery from street agents. Many years of effort (15 years on some reports) for something even the CIA had long been hesitant to use due to the high risk to innocent civilians for IMO very little intelligence or military advantage for what was expended to make it happen. If I believed this would have any long term effect of the elimination of Hezbollah fighters it would be worth it but that IMO is very unlikely.

https://www.thetimes.com/world/isra...ah-death-marks-end-iran-middle-east-m67z0cf9p

 

https://www.thetimes.com/world/isra...ah-death-marks-end-iran-middle-east-m67z0cf9p

That's what I'm talking about. No gram sized explosions on street level trigger pullers.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/28/israel-hezbollah-war-gaza-hamas-latest-news/

 

That's what I'm talking about. No gram sized explosions on street level trigger pullers.

Yebbut, it was the prior actions of the last few weeks that made this possible.

This was a planned op, from beginning to end.

The pagers and walkie talkies were just pushing the pawns.