I'm not flying unless it's a life saving flight. My older brother is two steps from death's door (unrelated to CV) but our Mom and the rest of the family in Dallas Texas wants me to stay away if he dies.

 

Now for the result:
The COVID-19 is nothing special, its true that its unfortunate your friends died from it, but they are not more unfortunate than your friends who died in car accidents or other normal ways. In fact death is something normal, it happens all the time, its only the human animal that is afraid of some deaths, but not from other ones. However the end result of the COVID-19 is that it causes more panic than suffering and the death count is not that much. As for us engineers, we should not be so easily moved the opinion built into society through fear and panic. But it looks as if its much, 500 000 people died...... It will be a bigger problem for those who were without work and lost jobs, to now feed their families, than the ones who died. On top of that, what are you doing in China? Don't you know its dangerous to travel outside of your own country, even your own city !?

In life there are no guarantees, you can only reduce the chances, but it will never be perfect. But you should stay at home, you should not go out on the street, a car can hit you! There will be 500 000 people who died from car accidents, lets ban cars and tell people not to go outside!

Death is one guarantee in life. There is a certainty that everyone will die. As you state above unfortunately humans have worked hard at cultivating a fear of death that now seems to trump over life itself.

 

Death is one guarantee in life. There is a certainty that everyone will die. As you state above unfortunately humans have worked hard at cultivating a fear of death that now seems to trump over life itself.

It sounds like you are saying that it is better to live life and die sooner then to stagnate and die later. Maybe you are right.

 

The virus was/is always going to rise up, infect every possible host and kill x percentage of those infected in cycles until there are no fresh hosts to infect.

That's how I see it too. Lockdown allows curve flattening and delays the inevitable, but the fewer that get infected early the more there are to get infected later. We can expect second, third etc spikes.

 

As you state above unfortunately humans have worked hard at cultivating a fear of death

hi,
The fear of death is inbuilt in all animals, else we would not be around, it's certainly not unique to humans or cultivated.

The important point is trying to stay alive by using your common sense and trying to avoid doing stupid or careless acts that will shorten your life.

E

 

It sounds like you are saying that it is better to live life and die sooner then to stagnate and die later. Maybe you are right.

What he means is you are going to die, do what you can and live while you can, because when death comes for you there is no escape.

@nsaspook
Viruses are not really a threat now a days. The problem is that some people are too afraid for their lives.

Even the animal when it comes the time to die it sits and waits for it with no fear, I have seen more than one animal to do so. They know they are gona die, but since they are not as bad as the human animal, they accept it.

 

creation of a vaccine which is suppose to take years, but for the so frightening COVID-19 they did it in a few months.

hi,
At the present time there is no vaccine for Covid19.

E

 

hi,
The fear of death is inbuilt in all animals, else we would not be around, it's certainly not unique to humans or cultivated.

The important point is trying to stay alive by using your common sense and trying to avoid doing stupid or careless acts that will shorten your life.

E

It is necessary to separate instinct to survive from fear of death. There is a great difference between will to live and fear of dying.

On a more personal note, time and time again it has been my will to live that pulled me out of dark moments of my life and nothing else. And I still do stupid things that may potentially shorten my life, but they are weighted against benefits and the benefits outweigh the risks

After all you can slip in a bathtub, hit your head and bleed to death while taking a shower... So, do you take that shower?

 

So, do you take that shower?

that depends ... bar soap, or liquid soap? ... one must assess the risks!

 

As you say taking calculated risks is necessary if you want to live a meaningful life.

By knowing the possible outcome of ones actions it enables us to minimise the dangers, eg: fitting an anti-slip shower mat.

I am not being flippant, but its when we do stupid things, when we know the possible outcome could be lethal and we don't try to minimise the risk ie: wearing a face mask, using your car seat belt, looking both ways before stepping off the side walk. etc

These actions are trivial but they help keep you in one piece.

E

 

https://www.kptv.com/news/let-them-...95e-b6a8-11ea-abc7-a383b645256a.html#comments

'Let Them Play' group holds rally in SW Portland park

 

What he means is you are going to die, do what you can and live while you can, because when death comes for you there is no escape.

@nsaspook
Viruses are not really a threat now a days. The problem is that some people are too afraid for their lives.

Even the animal when it comes the time to die it sits and waits for it with no fear, I have seen more than one animal to do so. They know they are gona die, but since they are not as bad as the human animal, they accept it.

I agree with most of that, but i believe (i guess) that to live or die is not a binary choice but a linear one with hot and cold areas. For example, if you had to go to a concert where your favorite band is playing and there are oodles of people close together and you know the principle method of transmission is to be in large groups of people for extended times, do you go or not? You may decide to go, maybe not. That's kind of binary.

However, if you have to go to the bank to cash your check for the week and you note that there is a large crowd in the bank, do you go in anyway or wait until the next day and go earlier to miss the crowd?
That's kind of linear, because you have a choice to avoid trouble and still get the job done.

Some animals also have this ability they might attack but then know when it becomes too hard to get to the end goal because they encounter some counter play on the part of the target food animal. The hungrier they become though the more risks they take.

 

Are we still discussing coronavirus or Chicago?

 

As you say taking calculated risks is necessary if you want to live a meaningful life.

By knowing the possible outcome of ones actions it enables us to minimise the dangers, eg: fitting an anti-slip shower mat.

I am not being flippant, but its when we do stupid things, when we know the possible outcome could be lethal and we don't try to minimise the risk ie: wearing a face mask, using your car seat belt, looking both ways before stepping off the side walk. etc

These actions are trivial but they help keep you in one piece.

E

Hi again,

Yeah i agree with that and that's a good way of putting it.

My decision is a bit harder though. My dear friend really needs me she is having some really bad emotional problems and the company she has right now is leaving soon and she is very afraid of being alone. I am trying to delay the trip until things quite down a little bit more especially with transportation (air, taxi, uber, bus, etc.).

I am really divided on this one and am having a hard time making a decision. I feel very strongly for her well being so i want to run out there and help, but i am so afraid that if i contract the virus on the way to her home i wont even know it right away, and then can transmit it to her and then who knows what would happen to her.
So it is very hard to figure out if i will help her or end up hurting her even more.

 

Are we still discussing coronavirus or Chicago?

Hi,

Not sure what you mean. Something special about Chicago?
For me i was bringing up the issue of doing some serious cross country travel amid the virus problems which are not limited to catching the virus itself, but also to new regulations and requirements for travel and the like.

 

https://issuesinsights.com/2020/06/25/falling-covid-19-death-rates-are-even-smaller-than-they-look/

 

It's not a revelation to most here but again.

https://fortune.com/2020/06/25/us-c...irmed-tests-covid-19-case-count-cdc-estimate/

The officials say the nature of the outbreak now is different than months ago, when deaths topped more than 1,000 per day for weeks and hospitals were stretched beyond capacity across the country. The new increase in positive cases, they said, is capturing what has long been there. They say it is only now showing up in data because the U.S. has increased testing and surveillance.

Meanwhile, mortality data has steadily declined, as have hospitalizations in all but a few hot spots.

CDC: U.S. coronavirus case count is roughly 10x higher than the 2.3 million confirmed so far

 

It's not a revelation to most here but again.

https://fortune.com/2020/06/25/us-c...irmed-tests-covid-19-case-count-cdc-estimate/

CDC: U.S. coronavirus case count is roughly 10x higher than the 2.3 million confirmed so far

What I'm gathering from this piece of news is that CV19 is far more contagious and a lot less deadly than current estimates... isn't it?

 

What I'm gathering from this piece of news is that CV19 is far more contagious and a lot less deadly than current estimates... isn't it?

For current estimates using current data yes but most realistic models still have large deaths counts because its so contagious (R0=normal virus plus a stealth mode pre-symptomatic multiplier spread) that even with lower actual death rates, the total over time will be much higher than seasonal flu if the at risk population is exposed continuously.
https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate

These are up-to-date values for Rt, a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading.
https://rt.live/

IMO CV19 is far more contagious in the US than these numbers show because typical symptoms range from nothing to death with death and serious hospitalization being low a percentage in the general low risk younger population getting infected now.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/25...-on-americans-facing-risk-of-severe-covid-19/

“I’m asking people to recognize that we’re in a different situation today than we were in March, in April, where the virus was being disproportionately recognized in older individuals with significant comorbidities and was causing significant hospitalizations and deaths,” he said.

“Today we’re seeing more virus. It’s in younger individuals. Fewer of those individuals are requiring the hospitalizations and having a fatal outcome. But that is not to minimize it.”

But Redfield went on to note that descriptions of the state of the pandemic in the country can be misleading, with maps that show where transmission is high suggesting much of the nation is experiencing high levels of spread. In reality, he said, about 110 or 120 counties in the country currently have significant transmission. There are more than 3,100 counties in the United States.

The new guidance breaks down medical conditions that can influence disease severity into those for which there is strong evidence, and those for which the evidence is not as strong, classifying the latter as conditions that might increase the risk of severe illness.

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or COPD, obesity, any immuno-suppressing condition, sickle cell disease, a history of an organ transplant, and type 2 diabetes are classified as having strong evidence of increasing the risk of Covid-19 infection.

Conditions that are considered ones that might increase the risk of severe illness are chronic lung diseases, including moderate to severe asthma and cystic fibrosis, high blood pressure, a weakened immune system, neurologic conditions, such as dementia or history of stroke, liver disease, and pregnancy.

 

What I'm gathering from this piece of news is that CV19 is far more contagious and a lot less deadly than current estimates... isn't it?

That's pretty much my take. My wife had a routine scheduled visit with our primary care doctor yesterday. This is the same guy who didn't like something he saw years ago which led to her cancer treatments in a timely fashion. I like him and admire him quite a bit and he has been our primary care guy for over 20 years.

So I asked him how many cases he has seen and diagnosed. He figured about 25 total. Problem is I have no clue how many patients he saw to derive that about 25 positive test. His view was that yes, my wife Kathy does have a weakened immune system as a result of cancer treatments but she is really not at a high risk other than being 72 and I am 70 but overall we should not worry about it. The sky is not falling. Yes, it's highly contagious but catching it does not mean a guaranteed death.

Ron