Expanding on that a little, a lot of what one sees as "science" regarding Covid-19 is horribly biased and is "one-tailed." The PNAS article I critiqued earlier was one-tailed. It assumed that face mask wearing must only decrease incidence. That is foolish. One can easily envision how it could also increase incidence.

Such egregious errors go back as far as one looks in science. My favorite (because it happened during my life) is the original Framingham Study (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Framingham_Heart_Study ). It started out as two-tailed. When the researchers found no difference in survival between the two groups (those who adopted a healthy life-style vs. those who kept to their sedate over-indulgent lifestyles), they changed the rules and only looked at cardiovascular related deaths. Even that difference was very small. Why no difference before? Read the study.

Havent heard of that study, will read about it for sure.

"Check your assumptions" is the one phrase that stuck with me from my school years. Can be applied to anything in life.

 

For 5 months the death count worldwide from the COVID-19 has been about 200 000, for 1 month the death count world wide from car accidents only, in normal times is 112,500. For 5 months these people were home, meaning less car accidents, more people were saved then killed. Its just the panic they create in society, the chances of getting hit by a car are bigger than getting the COVID-19.

 

@justtrying
I knew Professor Micheal Brown (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Stuart_Brown). I am not sure he ever published his review of the Framingham study, but it is scathing.

 

For 5 months the death count worldwide from the COVID-19 has been about 200 000, for 1 month the death count world wide from car accidents only, in normal times is 112,500. For 5 months these people were home, meaning less car accidents, more people were saved then killed. Its just the panic they create in society, the chances of getting hit by a car are bigger than getting the COVID-19.

Fantastic. That's right. I just got a small reimbursement from my auto insurance company because of reduced claims. I don't know whether $15 counts much, but it will feed me for a day or more.

 

For 5 months the death count worldwide from the COVID-19 has been about 200 000, for 1 month the death count world wide from car accidents only, in normal times is 112,500. For 5 months these people were home, meaning less car accidents, more people were saved then killed. Its just the panic they create in society, the chances of getting hit by a car are bigger than getting the COVID-19.

Don’t know where you got your stats from. And cherry picking five months is misleading. It’s been 5-1/2 months.

The total worldwide death count is a lot more than 200,000. Its 474,000!

 

Havent heard of that study, will read about it for sure.

"Check your assumptions" is the one phrase that stuck with me from my school years. Can be applied to anything in life.

That reminds me of one of my favorite pearls of wisdom: "Assumption is the mother of all f**k-ups"

 

The world population is 7.8 billion (Google). 474,000/7.8 billion is = 0.006%

Typically the US sees 60,000 deaths from common flu for a population of 350 million,. That's 0.017 %.

Wow, I am worried.

 

The world population is 7.8 billion (Google). 474,000/7.8 billion is = 0.006%

Typically the US sees 60,000 deaths from common flu for a population of 350 million,. That's 0.017 %.

Wow, I am worried.

Except, the US has seen 120,000 deaths from COVID19. Twice the amount of annual flu deaths. Or 0.034%, almost 6 times the rate of the entire world.

 

Except, the US has seen 120,000 deaths from COVID19. Twice the amount of annual flu deaths. Or 0.034%, almost 6 times the rate of the entire world.

No one, certainly not me, has suggested that the current pandemic stain of coronavirus is not worse than seasonal influenza A (common flu) on average. It is not Armageddon. It is not the end to humanity.

EDIT: Consider meningococcemia (Neisseria meningococcus in the blood). That has a death rate of:

Meningococcemia associated with DIC has a mortality rate of higher than 90%. Isolated meningococcal meningitis (5% mortality rate) has a better prognosis than meningococcal septicemia (10-40% mortality rate). In 2005, the mortality rate in the United States was 10-14%. (Source: MedScape)

We have survived meningococcal septicemia for hundreds of years without lockdowns, social distancing, face masks, or attempted far UVC sterilization of everything in our environment.

 

What I'd like to know (and I'm sure it'll be hard to answer) is what the number of deaths would be if precautions had not been taken in the first place.

 

What I'd like to know (and I'm sure it'll be hard to answer) is what the number of deaths would be if precautions had not been taken in the first place.

"Curve flattening" was not designed to reduce the total deaths, but to prevent a rapid influx of acute cases that would overwhelm our healthcare system resources. In the vast majority of the United States, a rapid influx did not occur. Hospital ICU's, even at large institutions like the Mayo Clinic (Rochester,MN), were empty. In a few areas (maybe NYC) , there was such an influx regardless of the lockdown measures.

In retrospect, lockdowns were not necessary everywhere. But, how was one to predict that when lives were at stake?

 

how was one to predict that when lives were at stake?

Right ... and especially when one's life and our loved ones are at stake ... One can never be to cautious, except that maybe in this case we were, and have been, way too cautious. I honestly don't know. I feel drowned in a sea of contradicting information originating from many apparently respectable sources.

History is going to have to judge the decisions taken by the medical community and each country on an individual basis ... This event is going to make one hell of a documentary in five years time.

 

The other side of the coin is that people (like me) are avoiding regular medical care. Hospitals are suffering from a lack of "normal" business. My wife dragged me down to Mayo for a scheduled appointment and the number of regular patients was down by ~50% so that means their revenue was also down correspondingly. I have missed several Dr. appointments, need dental care for a broken tooth, and put off TFN endoscopy and colonoscopy procedures that were scheduled last year before this all got crazy. All meaning that Dr's are not getting their normal customer load and relevant receivables.

 

Right ... and especially when one's life and our loved ones are at stake ... One can never be to cautious, except that maybe in this case we were, and have been, way too cautious. I honestly don't know. I feel drowned in a sea of contradicting information originating from many apparently respectable sources.

History is going to have to judge the decisions taken by the medical community and each country on an individual basis ... This event is going to make one hell of a documentary in five years time.

What consists of panic and what defines risk, is dependent strongly on your local experience. I live in Massachusetts. In the early growth curve, my state was the third worst outbreak of COVID in the US. As I’ve said, I personally knew 22 people exposed or confirmed to have COVID. Of those 22, I’ve experienced 6 deaths of friends and family.

This has left me being extremely cautious of the virus. As I suspect you would be if 6 of your friends had died.

 

@SamR

One of my daughters works at Mayo Rochester. Same story there. A living donor liver transplant was cancelled, not because it was elective for the recipient, but because the operation on the donor was considered "elective." I have a hard time accepting that as reasonable. Fortunately, a cadaveric donor was found in time.

 

As I suspect you would be if 6 of your friends had died.

The only death I'm aware of is the uncle of a very good friend of mine. He was death #2 in my state. Of course, it's nothing compared to your experience, but I totally understand what you're saying.

 

What ever number is closer we can say, and on the rise of infections with related deaths isn’t going to round up until 2 or 3 months have past.

Still practice distance with a mask and sun glasses.

kv

 

Yes it really is 500 000 from COVID-19, but its also 560 000 from car accidents normally for 5 months. So the situation is valid. There is nothing that wouldn't happen during normal times. Also the deaths are 560, but the crippled and other from car accidents is 20 mil to 50 mil. So its nothing that isn't normal yet again. During normal times, only the car accidents take more people. But now since these that rule were told ti be afraid of the COVID-19, they just repeat it, mostly on to you. Idiots can only repeat, they don't know how to think.

 

I will dare to comment that this is excessive. Main mode of transsmission is through air and it depends on the viral load as well. If it was airborne and not droplet and if it spread through touch, we would have many more cases than we do.

I assume that an infected person could sneeze on the packaging. Another person touched her. Brought it home, put it in the refrigerator and touched his face. Infection guaranteed.
The virus lives on the surface for a long time.

 

What consists of panic and what defines risk, is dependent strongly on your local experience. I live in Massachusetts. In the early growth curve, my state was the third worst outbreak of COVID in the US. As I’ve said, I personally knew 22 people exposed or confirmed to have COVID. Of those 22, I’ve experienced 6 deaths of friends and family.


This has left me being extremely cautious of the virus. As I suspect you would be if 6 of your friends had died.

True, it can be a very serious illness for some, but in truth for most of us the chances of dying are quite low. And in fact the growth rate for deaths is actually flattening out. So take precautions, especially if you have loved ones with preconditions (including old age), but otherwise we should probably carry on as normally as possible in order to increase herd immunity.

Also keep in mind that there may be a lot more going on than meets the eye. For example, the CDC sent out test kits in February, then three weeks later it's discovered that they're contaminated with Covid, and incidentally we see a sharp spike in cases from March to April! Now who knows if they're really related, but the point is it's hard to say what's actually true these days. Profiteers wanting to sell vaccines might have something to do with it. But what do I know?