Will we see a real self driving car in our life time?

MrAl

Joined Jun 17, 2014
11,389
That's very interesting for sure. Wonder if Elon Musk has seen that yet.

But now what we really need is a self driving tow truck, self driving and operating rescue vehicle equipped with self working Jaws of Life, self driving ambulance, self driving stretcher, self driving and operating surgeons, and above all self driving hearse. Self driving grave diggers would be a good idea too ... lots of them :)

On the bright side, there seems to be a lot of big money driving this industry now so maybe we will see some positive outcomes eventually. It's a shame though even elevators, which are much less complex, still are not completely safe.
 

killivolt

Joined Jan 10, 2010
835
That's very interesting for sure. Wonder if Elon Musk has seen that yet.

But now what we really need is a self driving tow truck, self driving and operating rescue vehicle equipped with self working Jaws of Life, self driving ambulance, self driving stretcher, self driving and operating surgeons, and above all self driving hearse. Self driving grave diggers would be a good idea too ... lots of them :)

On the bright side, there seems to be a lot of big money driving this industry now so maybe we will see some positive outcomes eventually. It's a shame though even elevators, which are much less complex, still are not completely safe.
Just when you thought you were safe, all depends on who is over riding the programming. Intended Design and Implementation vs Hack attack on open end hardware vulnerabilities, only known to builder.


kv
 

MrAl

Joined Jun 17, 2014
11,389
Just when you thought you were safe, all depends on who is over riding the programming. Intended Design and Implementation vs Hack attack on open end hardware vulnerabilities, only known to builder.


kv
Looking ahead, maybe this is just another step toward robot domination. The self driving cars are after all a form of robot. Maybe eventually we all evolve into cars with our personalities programmed into the computer :)
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,079
https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that...-teach-themselves-to-drive-better-than-humans
In the video above, as the cyclist approaches from the rear right side at a pretty good clip, you can see the autonomous vehicle pull to the left a little bit, increasing the amount of space that the cyclist can use to pass on the right.

One important question that we’re not really going to tackle here is whether this is even a good idea in the first place, since (as a cyclist) I’d personally prefer that cars be predictable rather than sometimes doing weirdly nice things that I might not be prepared for. But that’s one of the things that makes cyclists tricky: we’re unpredictable. And for AVs, dealing with unpredictable things is notoriously problematic.
This is how these AI driving systems are going to be gamed by humans.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,079
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-refutes-elon-musks-timeline-223312800.html
Tesla vehicles are far from reaching that level of autonomy, a fact confirmed by statements made by the company's director of Autopilot software CJ Moore to California regulators, the memo shows.
...
The memo, which was written by California DMV's Miguel Acosta, states that Moore described Autopilot — and the new features being tested — as a Level 2 system. That description matters in the world of automated driving.
 

MrAl

Joined Jun 17, 2014
11,389
It's funny i think everyone who read any part of this thread knew that it wasnt going to happen too fast and it doesnt take a conspiracy theorist to believe that. Musk is quite ambitious, so maybe he was just trying to give everyone hope or else he just got carried away this time with the actual reach of technology. I think the same thing could be happening with the big dreams of inhabiting Mars when almost every other day i read about another issue that has to be overcome in order to achieve that. For example, since plants on Earth evolved right here it will take bio engineered plants that can survive better on Mars in order to maintain farms for food and other bio processes. One of these days i am going to make a list of what it takes, and that would have to be updated regularly.
But if anyone can do either Musky can and he's certainly got the money to try being one of the richest people in the entire world. Good luck EM :)
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,079
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210610135534.htm
Picture yourself driving on a narrow road in the near future when suddenly another car emerges from a bend ahead. It is a self-driving car with no passengers inside. Will you push forth and assert your right of way, or give way to let it pass? At present, most of us behave kindly in such situations involving other humans. Will we show that same kindness towards autonomous vehicles?
...
Exploiting the machine without guilt

The study which is published in the journal iScience found that, upon first encounter, people have the same level of trust toward AI as for human: most expect to meet someone who is ready to cooperate.

The difference comes afterwards. People are much less ready to reciprocate with AI, and instead exploit its benevolence to their own benefit. Going back to the traffic example, a human driver would give way to another human but not to a self-driving car.

The study identifies this unwillingness to compromise with machines as a new challenge to the future of human-AI interactions.

"We put people in the shoes of someone who interacts with an artificial agent for the first time, as it could happen on the road," explains Dr. Jurgis Karpus, a behavioural game theorist and a philosopher at LMU Munich and the first author of the study. "We modelled different types of social encounters and found a consistent pattern. People expected artificial agents to be as cooperate as fellow humans. However, they did not return their benevolence as much and exploited the AI more than humans."
If people think that AI is programmed to be benevolent towards them, they will be less tempted to co-operate. Some of the accidents involving self-driving cars may already show real-life examples: drivers recognize an autonomous vehicle on the road, and expect it to give way. The self-driving vehicle meanwhile expects for normal compromises between drivers to hold.

"Algorithm exploitation has further consequences down the line. If humans are reluctant to let a polite self-driving car join from a side road, should the self-driving car be less polite and more aggressive in order to be useful?" asks Jurgis Karpus.
 

MrAl

Joined Jun 17, 2014
11,389
Yes that's an interesting issue to ponder, a non mandatory yield situation.
This reply turned out a little longer than i thought (which ironically follows my main point about unintended consequences) so if you want to skip most of this at least read the last part "MAIN POINT". The main point in a nutshell is good intentions can lead to unforeseen, unintended, and uncontrollable situations that have severe consequences for human kind.

In our town we have some relatively regular back roads not too narrow, but when there are cars parked on both sides of the street it gets tricky. Usually the car that gets to the parked cars goes first while the other car being slightly farther away, yields temporarily. But sometimes two cars will approach the parked cars at about the same time so who has to yield. It gets tricky even for humans.

There are other slightly tricky places in town too. For example, a four way stop sign. Can the autonomous car see all three of the other inroads? The standard rule is that the first car to meet the intersection goes first, followed by the next to arrive, so it's a first come first serve situation. But again what if all four cars arrive at about the same time. How does the auto car know when to go.

The self driving algorithms better be pretty darn good and have wide angle view an interpretation even when at dawn when the sunlight plays tricks on cameras. Maybe radar is better.

Also, talk about a tricky situation, what about if the auto car drives past or near a building with mirrored windows and sees reflections of other cars in the 'mirrors'. Those auto delivery pizzas better be packaged in some steel reinforced concrete so they can survive the impact(s) :)

After reading some other stories from around the world about other disasters that were certainly not intended and had far reaching and long term consequences it dawned on me that mankind is just like a silly kindergartener who because of a narrow experience range doesnt understand they some things wont work out too well. We all know about the nuclear disasters of late and the far reaching consequences for all human life, but there are other things that happen too, and always bare in mind that these all started out with the very best of intentions. The last example i read about was a ship that went aground in the Themes river. IT was carrying tons and tons of explosives needed to fight a battle somewhere and so was important. The way i understand it is it stopped in the river for a short time and the tide went out. It happened to be anchored just over a sand bar, and as the tide went out it eventually came to rest on the sand bar. Now maybe that in itself is not too bad of a situation, just wait for the tide to come back in, right? Well, as it turns out, because of the position of the sandbar and the weight distribution of the contents on the ship and probably the ship weight itself, the ship cracked in half! After that there was no way to move it even if the tide came back in, which it did, but too late the ship was now under water and all that you could see were the two masts that were sticking up above the surface of the water looking like the tops of two telephone poles. But remember all those munitions, they didnt just go away, there were certainly still there, but now they were stuck there, because nobody wanted to pay to get them out. Year after year after year went by, and lo and behold, they are still there to this day and still pose a great danger to the surrounding cities. They predict that if one bomb goes off it will set off a chain reaction and they will all go off and shoot a water column thousands of feet into the air (or in that local, 'meters' ha ha). But seriously, that is a possibility. The latest i have read about this was that they want to build an airport near that area and they cant build it until something is done about the contents of that sunken ship, and they cant seem to find a contractor to do the job. Maybe they will in the future.

MAIN POINT
But the main point i am getting to is that mankind has a habit of doing well intended things that somehow go wrong and then become uncontrollable, and the consequences are severe; extremely bad for humanity as a whole or at least in part. The question is, what is coming next that will become uncontrollable and damaging when it was supposed to do us some good. My guess is that one day the consequences will be too hard to deal with and humanity will suffer greatly and could even trigger the next extinction event, for us or perhaps our flora and fauna, leaving us to wither and die along with them.
Next up is nuclear fusion, which i can see may not be global when something goes wrong, but locally there could be some big problems when the 100 million degree plasma flood gates break open, In the words of Mister T, "I pity the fool" (that happens to be in the vicinity).
 

BobTPH

Joined Jun 5, 2013
8,804
Next up is nuclear fusion, which i can see may not be global when something goes wrong, but locally there could be some big problems when the 100 million degree plasma flood gates break open, In the words of Mister T, "I pity the fool" (that happens to be in the vicinity).
The plasma is only that hot when confined to a very small volume. If it “escapes” it would cool rapidly as it expands.

Bob
 

MrAl

Joined Jun 17, 2014
11,389
The plasma is only that hot when confined to a very small volume. If it “escapes” it would cool rapidly as it expands.

Bob
Famous last words :)
See this is what i mean, assumptions, assumptions, no escaping assumptions.
How small is 'very small' when it powers an entire city?
 

MrChips

Joined Oct 2, 2009
30,706
Back to the future

I see that there will be no reasonable reason for private car ownership. When you consider that most of the time most vehicles are parked somewhere not running. There will be no garages in homes. Compare that to the airline industry where the duration that the aircraft is in service in the air exceeds the time it is on the ground.

Instead of owning a car you will summons a car to come to you and take you to your destination. If you needed a car for a weekend trip into the country you would rent one.

As for cars at 4-way stops and narrow streets, all cars in the vicinity would be in communication with each other. They will negotiate which one goes first.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,079
Back to the future

I see that there will be no reasonable reason for private car ownership. When you consider that most of the time most vehicles are parked somewhere not running. There will be no garages in homes. Compare that to the airline industry where the duration that the aircraft is in service in the air exceeds the time it is on the ground.

Instead of owning a car you will summons a car to come to you and take you to your destination. If you needed a car for a weekend trip into the country you would rent one.

As for cars at 4-way stops and narrow streets, all cars in the vicinity would be in communication with each other. They will negotiate which one goes first.
That's an urban centered future for those of high wealth. Those that live in the country will continue to have private cars and the regular folks in the city won't have nice, clean, sanitized every trip, AI cars driving up to their houses. There will still be a high incentive for private car ownership because IMO most people will not want to depend on some random AI 'uber' if they have the income for something better.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,079
Famous last words :)
See this is what i mean, assumptions, assumptions, no escaping assumptions.
How small is 'very small' when it powers an entire city?
That 100 million degrees (Maxwellian temperature) is a containment energy density as a measure of collisions with each other, it doesn't really represent an actual physical temperature of a free plasma.

 

BobaMosfet

Joined Jul 1, 2009
2,110
Back to the future

I see that there will be no reasonable reason for private car ownership. When you consider that most of the time most vehicles are parked somewhere not running. There will be no garages in homes. Compare that to the airline industry where the duration that the aircraft is in service in the air exceeds the time it is on the ground.

Instead of owning a car you will summons a car to come to you and take you to your destination. If you needed a car for a weekend trip into the country you would rent one.

As for cars at 4-way stops and narrow streets, all cars in the vicinity would be in communication with each other. They will negotiate which one goes first.
The first step is to get people to accept them. The truth is the technology is already possible to make them 100% safe (air, land, or sea), but the second step is the gotcha-. Once the populace has no vehicle they totally have control over, then they lose their right to autonomous movement over long (or any) distance with ease (or permission). It should bother people that since 2003, every vehicle has GPS built in so the vehicle can be tracked.
 
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