Will we see a real self driving car in our life time?

cmartinez

Joined Jan 17, 2007
8,257
No, the driver didn't decide whether, when, or if to deploy ABS. The decision was taken out of his hands.
So that the tires won't screech and leave the driver with no decision at all.... the discussion is moot really... my point is that I don't think that such thing as "assisted driving" is realistic with the current technology as it is.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,315
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03013-5
That could lead to substantial problems. Deep-learning systems are increasingly moving out of the lab into the real world, from piloting self-driving cars to mapping crime and diagnosing disease. But pixels maliciously added to medical scans could fool a DNN into wrongly detecting cancer, one study reported this year2. Another suggested that a hacker could use these weaknesses to hijack an online AI-based system so that it runs the invader’s own algorithms3.

In their efforts to work out what’s going wrong, researchers have discovered a lot about why DNNs fail. “There are no fixes for the fundamental brittleness of deep neural networks,” argues François Chollet, an AI engineer at Google in Mountain View, California. To move beyond the flaws, he and others say, researchers need to augment pattern-matching DNNs with extra abilities: for instance, making AIs that can explore the world for themselves, write their own code and retain memories. These kinds of system will, some experts think, form the story of the coming decade in AI research.
...
Researchers in the field say they are making progress in fixing deep learning’s flaws, but acknowledge that they’re still groping for new techniques to make the process less brittle. There is not much theory behind deep learning, says Song. “If something doesn’t work, it’s difficult to figure out why,” she says. “The whole field is still very empirical. You just have to try things.”
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.11553.pdf


To be fair, an upside down fire truck would function like a bobsled.
Still at least 10 years away.
 

shortbus

Joined Sep 30, 2009
10,045
I don’t know about your car, but I have to manually select ABS. I typically use ABS in snowy or icy conditions and turn it off otherwise.
Are you sure you're not confusing ABS with traction control? What make car? Never saw one with ABS (Anti-lock Brake System) that could be turned on and off. Traction control yes, ABS no.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,315
https://www.embedded.com/aaa-study-exposes-code-flaws-in-active-driving-assistance-ada-systems/
According to a study from the American Automobile Association (AAA), active driving assistance (ADA) systems that automate steering and braking in a growing number of vehicles are not providing reliable safety benefits, and recorded disruptions and disengaged roughly every eight miles.

The study found that over the course of 4,000 miles of real-world driving, vehicles equipped with active driving assistance systems (ADA) experienced some type of issue every eight miles, on average. Researchers noted instances of trouble with the systems keeping the vehicles tested in their lane and coming too close to other vehicles or guardrails. AAA also found that active driving assistance systems, those that combine vehicle acceleration with braking and steering, often disengage with little notice – almost instantly handing control back to the driver. This can lead to a dangerous scenario if a driver has become disengaged from the driving task or has become too dependent on the system. AAA recommends manufacturers increase the scope of testing for active driving assistance systems and limit their rollout until functionality is improved to provide a more consistent and safer driver experience.
...
please refer to the full report
https://publicaffairsresources.aaa.biz/download/17223/
 

Deleted member 115935

Joined Dec 31, 1969
0
To answer the OP,
yes we will see self drive units on the roads in our life time,
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,315
In our lifetime for full level 5 go anywhere a person can depends on how old you are. The main problem is infrastructure and human drivers in the mix, not our ability to make a self-driving car in isolation.

Humans are really good at predicting the future, the wrong future.
 

MrAl

Joined Jun 17, 2014
11,496
In our lifetime for full level 5 go anywhere a person can depends on how old you are. The main problem is infrastructure and human drivers in the mix, not our ability to make a self-driving car in isolation.

Humans are really good at predicting the future, the wrong future.
That is an interesting viewpoint and the Mars Rover is a great example.

So what is the baseline reason for problems?
On Mars the Rover has no problem navigating because nothing much changes or very slow changes as it moves around. On Earth, there are conditions that are constantly changing due ot other vehicles buzzing around.

The changing conditions are the main problem that the logic cant seem to deal with. Add to that the 'blended' problem where a dark colored vehicle on a light background or a light colored vehicle on a dark background is easy to detect, while a dark on dark or light on light situation is harder to detect. That requires high resolution cameras with a deep color resolution depth.
But then i also have to wonder how one would drive west when the Sun is just coming up over the horizon. Does it pull down a visor or change the angle of its camera system.
Humans can deal with that situ but getting a machine to do that would seem very hard to accomplish.
If every car on the road had a short range transmitter that would help but of course would add another required safety feature on every single car.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,315
Humans in the mix driving and pedestrian interaction is the baseline reason. Rebuilding the required infrastructure is expensive but possible, rebuilding human nature to eliminate innate biological responses (waving, nodding and gesturing) to 'threats' is a much harder problem. We adapt to conditions on a risk based manner. Open roads, fewer cops, global fear and anxiety results in?

Reckless Driving on the Rise During COVID-19 Pandemic
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-...-driving-on-the-rise-during-covid-19-pandemic

A small slice of drivers and pedestrians will game capable self-driving cars for their own personal advantage unless there is aggression and the ability to bend traffic laws designed into self-driving car logic. Who wants the legal responsibility for that? It seems counterfactual but making self-driving cars actually safer on real roads, in all conditions while sharing the road with human drivers and pedestrians compared to fully engaged human-driven cars in bad conditions is a very hard problem humans handle with high levels of safety using level 0/1 automation cars today.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/transport...e-big-problem-with-selfdriving-cars-is-people
Bullying can go both ways, of course. The flip side of socially clueless autonomous cars is the owners of such cars taking the opportunity to be antisocial themselves.

Up from Central Square toward Harvard Square in Cambridge is a stretch of Massachusetts Avenue that mixes residential and commercial buildings, with metered parking. One day I needed to stop at the UPS store there to ship a heavy package, and as there were no free parking spots I found myself cruising up and down a 100-meter stretch as I waited for a spot to open up. The thought occurred to me that if I’d had a level-4 or -5 self-driving car I could have left it to do that circling while I dropped into the store. Such is the root of antisocial behavior: convenience for me versus inconvenience for everyone else.
That is where we are today. People are overestimating how quickly level-5 autonomy will come and overestimating how widespread level-4 autonomy will become in the near future. They see only the technical possibilities, not the resistance that will come when autonomous agents invade human spaces, be they too rude or overly deferential.
 

camerart

Joined Feb 25, 2013
3,730
Humans in the mix driving and pedestrian interaction is the baseline reason. Rebuilding the required infrastructure is expensive but possible, rebuilding human nature to eliminate innate biological responses (waving, nodding and gesturing) to 'threats' is a much harder problem. We adapt to conditions on a risk based manner. Open roads, fewer cops, global fear and anxiety results in?

Reckless Driving on the Rise During COVID-19 Pandemic
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-...-driving-on-the-rise-during-covid-19-pandemic

A small slice of drivers and pedestrians will game capable self-driving cars for their own personal advantage unless there is aggression and the ability to bend traffic laws designed into self-driving car logic. Who wants the legal responsibility for that? It seems counterfactual but making self-driving cars actually safer on real roads, in all conditions while sharing the road with human drivers and pedestrians compared to fully engaged human-driven cars in bad conditions is a very hard problem humans handle with high levels of safety using level 0/1 automation cars today.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/transport...e-big-problem-with-selfdriving-cars-is-people
Hi,
I think we will see self driving cars soon, but we will also see insurance claims, but who or what was in control?

As for ABS, I once slowing down for a car that had slid off the road on a bend, I pushed the brake pedal, and the ABS, almost made me go in the wrong direction, where without it, I think i would have done a better job.
C.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,315
Hi,
I think we will see self driving cars soon, but we will also see insurance claims, but who or what was in control?

As for ABS, I once slowing down for a car that had slid off the road on a bend, I pushed the brake pedal, and the ABS, almost made me go in the wrong direction, where without it, I think i would have done a better job.
C.
I've been reading about self-driving cars being on the road 'soon' since the 1960's. It's a classic high percentage problem, completing the task will require much more work than the first 90% slice of the pie. IMO we will be stuck at a level below full automation for a while.


https://www.autoweek.com/news/technology/a32782600/why-level-5-autonomous-driving-has-not-happened/
 
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WBahn

Joined Mar 31, 2012
30,086
To be fair, the ones where the child walks out from between parked cars just as the vehicle approaches have to be evaluated in terms of how reasonable it is for either a human or an autonomous car to have avoided the collision in that circumstance.

None-the-less, I've maintained for years that we are still basically cheery-picking the data in rather carefully-controlled environments. We are nowhere close to having a generic autonomous vehicle. The unusual circumstances that human drivers encounter on a regular basis and must evaluate and decide on a course of action are extreme -- and, to be sure, humans don't always make acceptable decisions and so we can't expect autonomous vehicles to always do so. But I still believe that, currently, humans have a significant edge in those situations.
 

joeyd999

Joined Jun 6, 2011
5,287
To be fair, the ones where the child walks out from between parked cars just as the vehicle approaches have to be evaluated in terms of how reasonable it is for either a human or an autonomous c
I live in a residential neighborhood. I expect kids (and dogs, cats, ducks, etc.) to run out in the street from between parked cars, and am always on the alert for it.

Can an AI be programed to expect the same?
 

cmartinez

Joined Jan 17, 2007
8,257
Can an AI be programed to expect the same?
I don't see why not ... I'm always on the lookout too. Always trying to see below the cars to see if there are moving shadows. But the best way to avoid a tragedy is to simply respect the speed limits at neighborhoods and be extra cautious.
 

WBahn

Joined Mar 31, 2012
30,086
I live in a residential neighborhood. I expect kids (and dogs, cats, ducks, etc.) to run out in the street from between parked cars, and am always on the alert for it.

Can an AI be programed to expect the same?
Whether you are always on the alert for it or not, you can't guarantee that a kid isn't going to first become detectable within the sum of your reaction time and the physical maneuvering capabilities of the vehicle. At least I'm assuming that you aren't claiming that there is no conceivable situation in which a kid or animal could possibly act in such a way that you would unable to avoid hitting them.

Can an AI be programmed to expect the same? Sure -- and in many, perhaps even most, situations it would likely do a better job than you would. But there are plenty of situations in which it probably wouldn't.
 
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