Niels Bohr?
It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.

True but our brains can easily handle even minor deviations from the predicted paths of cars at 70mph using nuanced behavioral cues. Our foresight is what's so powerful and so very hard to mimic with computers.

Our brain sees the world not by processing every pixel in a scene but by focusing on the unexpected.

 

 

We predict the future continuously. Or when conscious. And we are very excellent doing it. It's the only difference between us and pond scum.

We have too. We have no strength.....no hide....no claws or teeth for protection. Our only advantage is anticipation.(visualization of a future event or state)

At least half of our consciousness is imagination.

Edit: We don't have intellect.....we have imagination.

 

We have no strength.....no hide....no claws or teeth for protection. Our only advantage is

An AK47?

 

The only way to make self driving work reasonably safe is to have all the vehicles on a centralized network like what is done with automatic train control. However, Vehicle to vehicle (V2V) communication and Roadside to vehicle (R2V) are another layer of protection involving the communication of the speed and direction of other vehicles and the status of traffic signals.

Networking, V2V, and R2V are actually doable with existing technology, however automatic steering is going to be a tough one.

 

It's a cool think to do and it keeps some very smart people gainfully employed. Self-driving car development is a general AI problem in total. General AI is something we are still very far from having with current technology so don't expect to see much beyond constrained demos of cars in the near future.

I agree on this. AGI is something we have no answers to yet. But overall, AI is getting stronger with each passing year. There are a lot of factors that need to be developed first to achieve AGI, for starters, massive computing power and building new high performance hardware. Everything is still in its infancy.
With respect to current developments in self driving automobiles, atleast we know the challenges and we can clearly outline what to fix and update.

 

Though all your queries are valid, I still believe we will reach at a point where self driving cars will be a reality.
When you say how these machines will understand severity of the moment and react spontaneously, I think it has a lot to do with how we embrace the technology and prepare ourselves and spun an infrastructure around it.
When you envision a future with self driving cars, you also move ahead and change traditional monitoring methods too.

I agree. Envisioning a future with self-driving cars is indicative of how we are capable of embracing technology. The moment we can have self-driving cars operating safely on the roads, could also be a time when other technologies would have realized its goals as well. There’s artificial intelligence plus virtual reality which are very much talked about right now. And with the current launch of 5G, I think we’re on our way to this highly efficient future.

 

Here's a very interesting article, relevant to this discussion:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181024131501.htm

A massive new survey developed by MIT researchers reveals some distinct global preferences concerning the ethics of autonomous vehicles, as well as some regional variations in those preferences.

 

I agree. Envisioning a future with self-driving cars is indicative of how we are capable of embracing technology. The moment we can have self-driving cars operating safely on the roads, could also be a time when other technologies would have realized its goals as well. There’s artificial intelligence plus virtual reality which are very much talked about right now. And with the current launch of 5G, I think we’re on our way to this highly efficient future.

The wide-eyed enthusiasm of the future is certainly terrific but most of us live in the real world of engineering where every possible machine or software driven gizmo breaks in ways the designers never imagined possible. Efficiency is not always a panacea.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

Economists have observed that consumers tend to travel more when their cars are more fuel efficient, causing a 'rebound' in the demand for fuel.[10] An increase in the efficiency with which a resource (e.g. fuel) is used, causes a decrease in the cost of using that resource when measured in terms of what it can achieve (e.g. travel). Generally speaking, a decrease in the cost (or price) of a good or service will increase the quantity demanded (the law of demand). With a lower cost for travel, consumers will travel more, increasing the demand for fuel. This increase in demand is known as the rebound effect, and it may or may not be large enough to offset the original drop in demand from the increased efficiency. The Jevons paradox occurs when the rebound effect is greater than 100%, exceeding the original efficiency gains.[5]

 

Here's a very interesting article, relevant to this discussion:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181024131501.htm

Yeah. I read about this and I agree, with all the development and innovation happening, there's also a need to keep up with ethics. We can't ignore this aspect. But unless we have the tech at hand, we won't know how to mold it ethically. There are a lot of apprehensions around how AI is changing everything we have built and its reforming the social structure. In a way I believe its going to be good as long as we know what exactly we aim to build.

 

The wide-eyed enthusiasm of the future is certainly terrific but most of us live in the real world of engineering where every possible machine or software driven gizmo breaks in ways the designers never imagined possible. Efficiency is not always a panacea.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

I know some are already worrying that efficient, self-driving cars will allow people to live much farther from their jobs. You can stumble into your car and catch another hour of sleep or read the paper while it drives for you. This could have a profound effect on suburban sprawl and traffic patterns.

 

If self driving cats become a practical reality and millions of jobs are eliminated, many people won;t have a job to drive to.

 

I believe that self-driving cars will be around in our life time - as to when in that time frame? I am not sure, and I think the tech still has a little way to go before it is viable, but we will get there

 

I know some are already worrying that efficient, self-driving cars will allow people to live much farther from their jobs. You can stumble into your car and catch another hour of sleep or read the paper while it drives for you. This could have a profound effect on suburban sprawl and traffic patterns.

I think by the time self driving cars are rolled out, we will have a different work culture alogether. How good will it be, if you don't need to travel as much and you can use innovative tech to work from your home? All this is too dreamy but not impossible.

 

If self driving cats become a practical reality and millions of jobs are eliminated, many people won;t have a job to drive to.

Don't you think there will be other forms of employement evolving with time? I mean its not that AI is going to take over everything that we do?

 

Don't you think there will be other forms of employement evolving with time? I mean its not that AI is going to take over everything that we do?

I find it hard to think of a job that AI couldn't do - though we are still a long way away from that.

 

I find it hard to think of a job that AI couldn't do - though we are still a long way away from that.

In the science fiction context, yes but with our present technology it's still an open question on if level 5 automation is possible in a mixed environment of humans walking, biking and driving in a ad-hoc mobile infrastructure within a city like New York.
https://www.techemergence.com/self-driving-car-timeline-themselves-top-11-automakers/

 

If self driving cats become a practical reality . . .

Surely this is a pipe dream (just imagine the carnage a single laser pen would cause). The idea, however, does provide a nice benchmark for the industry: "Tesla Autonomous Controls: Now smarter than most cats!"

 

Keep in mind that the 100% of the venture capital for self driving technology is coming from the government. The prospects for self driving tech turning a profit are so low that no one want's to risk private capital on something that may not provide any return on investment for years.

 

Why we need self-driving/assist technology.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzSNapGnexAAKh6v4sWb2jQ