http://finance.yahoo.com/news/vw-recall-could-be-the-most-expensive-ever-194521326.html

VW’s emission evasion will be costly because it can’t just send owners in for a new part or software upgrade, and call it a day. While the specifics aren’t yet clear, it seems likely that turning on the emission controls, which might be a simple modification in itself, will degrade the performance and fuel economy of the vehicles in question, making them more sluggish and less efficient. Given that VW’s turbodiesels, known as TDIs, tend to appeal to motoring buffs who care a lot about performance, VW could face a customer revolt.
...
Offer to buy back vehicles. This could be very expensive, but it might be the most thorough way to earn back the trust of VW customers -- and placate regulators. And there’s precedent. Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) recently negotiated a deal with the government involving fire-prone vehicles from 1993 to 1998, which required the automaker to offer to buy the affected vehicles back from customers at market price plus 10%. Other Fiat Chrysler recalls negotiated as part of the same deal include discounts up to $2,000 (on top of any other offers) on new Fiat Chrysler models for owners who trade in one of the qualifying recalled vehicles.

VW must be looking at the cost of the US market vs future liability and the weighting the possibility of a complete US buy back costing less in the long run while they concentrate on the massive EU market problems they have.

 

So, basically they "left out" an emission system? if it was designed to be there in the first place, but not really installed that's one scenario. if it was never even thought of, then that's another. Early vehicles may have the hooks to retrofit where the later vehicles may not. A buy back might be cheaper.
In areas like California, you could prevent registration.

But then, the fix could just be altering the firmware revision # without modifying the firmware.

How to you "test to see if the fix was applied properly? Dynamometer?

FWIW: We (East Coast state) can go the first 5 years without emission testing or 2 years for subsequent renewals. Our inspection primarily is odometer, lights, horn, driver's window, check for illegal window tinting an OBD port scan and an actual brake test. Drive slow and hit the brakes. I think tires are looked at. If you fail, there is a re-check line UNLESS you failed emissions or brakes. If you go on the right day, your done in < 15 minutes and they made $80. Good for 2 or 5 years.

In a nearby state, they actually have to "examine" the car. So, it's mainly a physical inspection.

They used to do exhaust testing and headlight aiming

The GM ignition switch fix was silly anyway. Had to go though that. they just removed the "moment arm" on the key. The "standard key" now has a hole and not a slot. Hardly any labor involved ad they didn't even cut new keys. They just pressed in an insert.

 

So, basically they "left out" an emission system? if it was designed to be there in the first place, but not really installed that's one scenario. if it was never even thought of, then that's another. Early vehicles may have the hooks to retrofit where the later vehicles may not. A buy back might be cheaper.
In areas like California, you could prevent registration.

But then, the fix could just be altering the firmware revision # without modifying the firmware.

How to you "test to see if the fix was applied properly? Dynamometer?

I just had the driver airbag recall done on the Honda, 1 hour with an oil change.

I can see hardball states like CA going ballistic with requirements far beyond a Dyno check to requiring independent Blackbox monitors on random cars for compliance in return for cash incentive to the owner paid by VW.

The problem is the code is in the wild and nothing will get it back. In states with little or no car testing the update compliance will be low. The market for used VW ECM modules and third party hacks will skyrocket in states where people are forced to update. I haven't run the numbers but the value in keeping the cheat over the lifetime of the car must be in the thousands for a owner that drives a lot so an incentive plan (paid by VW) that matches that amount in exchange for mandatory extra random monitoring might work.

 

This is another reason I don't think a simple software fix is the solution. The entire emissions and engine control system was designed around this cheat to save money by eliminating the urea injection system.

Then how, exactly do they do it? They don't and I'm sure that car has been torn apart to the last bolt or wire looking for the magic they used. This fact is the one that makes me believe that this is not a little slice of code but is a very sophisticated and well engineered system on the level that usually only governments can pull off.

Perhaps they will have to add the urea injection system and remove the cheat software (with perhaps some modification to the main software if the urea injection requires it).
No other changes may be required since the Diesel runs fine otherwise.
But the addition of that system would be expensive for cars already built.

 

Maybe not in all states but in places like California or the NE they can by simply saying 'no registration' for public roads.
If as many believe they designed the cheat to beat the requirement of urea because it's impossible to meet US emissions and efficiency without it they are forced to retrofit (if they can even make a retrofit work and still be compatible with other safety requirements) old cars like a 2009 Jetta with Adblue or urea for $5000 per car plus overhead plus fines. If the buy back cost for older cars is ~$8000 per car + an incentive. I think a deal (on the fines) can be easily justified financially with VW and environmentally with the EPA to get the old cars off the road by effectively banning them.
I'm not in favor of a road ban without the people who were tricked being well paid for it. So you won't have to sell your car but you can't drive it as the unfixed cars were never actually legal for sale with falsified paperwork.

 

With all the talk about urea injection systems:

 

WVU follows up on the European tests. I had not heard of the European tests before the paper nsaspook linked.

Had anyone traced through the code?

 

WVU follows up on the European tests. I had not heard of the European tests before the paper nsaspook linked.

Had anyone traced through the code?

If you mean the ECM code then sure but like I said it's hidden deeper than an tick in a hound-dog and while people know what it does externally to my knowledge (in public) the internals are still a hidden by what I would assume is a cryptographic masking technique of some sort the prevents casual code analysis. Speculation: I think there is hidden hardware on the die of a very proprietary nature that's being used here.

 

Buried that deep it might never be found.

 

Buried that deep it might never be found.

As I said "in public", will it be disclosed if that's the modus-operandi, who knows. There are several 'cloaking' methods at the die level (like PIC code protection) that can be used but most can be broken or at least easily seen to exist with close inspection. There is speculation in the SEMI industry 'Darknet' of how it could have been done if it reached to that level of stealth but if someone really knows, they ain't telling because it's valuable information.

 

This is the end game for 'Clean Diesel'.

http://www.vw.com/features/clean-diesel/


What it said in the alternative universe before the time warp.
http://web.archive.org/web/20150816221300/http://www.vw.com/features/clean-diesel/

 

As I said "in public", will it be disclosed if that's the modus-operandi, who knows. There are several 'cloaking' methods at the die level (like PIC code protection) that can be used but most can be broken or at least easily seen to exist with close inspection. There is speculation in the SEMI industry 'Darknet' of how it could have been done if it reached to that level of stealth but if someone really knows, they ain't telling because it's valuable information.

The EPA is likely trying to keep the HACK method quiet as well so nobody reverses the recall (if a recall ever happens). German government already had meetings about a possible VW Group bailout. I think "VW Group of America Corporation" declaring bankruptcy in the US and then exiting the US market for 10 years (or what ever statute of limitations might exist) might be the cheaper option.

 

With all the talk about urea injection systems:

That pain is nothing compared to the S&M workout VW is going to get.

 

Well as us farming people see it,

I will go and put some serious thought into the non compliant VW emissions contributions to global warming while I drive my 500 HP non emissions tractor, that burns more fuel in a day with than your little car does in two years, every day for the next month doing harvest work so I can feed you city whiners.

Or not.

 

The EPA is likely trying to keep the HACK method quiet as well so nobody reverses the recall (if a recall ever happens). German government already had meetings about a possible VW Group bailout. I think "VW Group of America Corporation" declaring bankruptcy in the US and then exiting the US market for 10 years (or what ever statute of limitations might exist) might be the cheaper option.

Maybe it's time to call:

 

Well as us farming people see it,

I will go and put some serious thought into the non compliant VW emissions contributions to global warming while I go out and drive my 500 HP non emissions tractor, and burn more fuel in a day with one machine than you do in two years with your little car, for the next month doing harvest work so I can feed you city whiners.

Or not.

Cost vs benefit. People need to eat but don't need a TDI Jetta to live.

 

I don’t understand the level of concern. This is easily resolved and no one is getting injured.

Gee, someone cheated.

Has anyone in the EPA ever altered data? That doesn’t concern anybody.

The States have all the vin numbers. Just flag them. Don’t allow renewal till update.

If your renewal is due now, VW can provide loaner or rental until update.

Incentive for speed.

It wasn’t an act of war. There is no reason to destroy VW.

If this just happened in the last year or so, I’d say that’s the end of it.

But it’s only due to the EPA’s incompetence, that it lasted so long.

How does this incompetence in other areas of regulation, going to effect us?

The phoniness and lack of accountability of the EPA is much more concerning.

 

I don’t understand the level of concern. This is easily resolved and no one is getting injured.

Gee, someone cheated.

Has anyone in the EPA ever altered data? That doesn’t concern anybody.

The States have all the vin numbers. Just flag them. Don’t allow renewal till update.

If your renewal is due now, VW can provide loaner or rental until update.

Incentive for speed.

It wasn’t an act of war. There is no reason to destroy VW.

If this just happened in the last year or so, I’d say that’s the end of it.

But it’s only due to the EPA’s incompetence, that it lasted so long.

How does this incompetence in other areas of regulation, going to effect us?

The phoniness and lack of accountability of the EPA is much more concerning.

Ahem. The owners paid for a performance car. How to make them whole?

 

I don’t understand the level of concern. This is easily resolved and no one is getting injured.

Gee, someone cheated.

Has anyone in the EPA ever altered data? That doesn’t concern anybody.

The States have all the vin numbers. Just flag them. Don’t allow renewal till update.

If your renewal is due now, VW can provide loaner or rental until update.

Incentive for speed.

It wasn’t an act of war. There is no reason to destroy VW.

If this just happened in the last year or so, I’d say that’s the end of it.

But it’s only due to the EPA’s incompetence, that it lasted so long.

How does this incompetence in other areas of regulation, going to effect us?

The phoniness and lack of accountability of the EPA is much more concerning.

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong.

VW was destroyed by simple human greed. This is not the first time the EPA has seen this so I don't they were incompetent just out smarted by a culture that takes great pride in engineering 'solutions' to problems that get in the way of its goals. It wasn't an act of military war but economically for competitors in the US small passenger diesel market (trucks and heavy equipment is another sector) it was the equivalent by proxy to cheat on emissions.

 

Ahem. The owners paid for a performance car. How to make them whole?

I don't think VW can it with the existing equipment. To meet the emission standards (without an additive like urea) fuel is burned in the emissions control system instead of the engine to reduce NOX (causing a reduction in efficiency and performance). If the car was designed to only have this happen during cheating mode the extra heat and stress will destroy those system quickly.