but IMHO, their excessive reliance on the X86 architecture blindsided them on the ARM and GPU revolution.

Intel tried twice to replace the X86 architecture.

The I432 used a “capability” architecture, in which each process needed a token for any data segment it could access. This provided bullet proof (relatively) security. The problem was that a procedure call, on a 5MHz processor, took milliseconds. The overall performance was 1/4 of the x86 which cost far less.

Then there was the Itanium, jointly developed with Hewlett Packward [sic]. It used a unique idea that the hardware would not execute instructions in parallel unless designated in instruction, leaving such decisions to the compiler. The designers claimed they could get over 4 instructions per clock, compared to 2.1 with the existing X86. When it was built, the real number was, wait for it, 2.1

In both cases, these processors were designed by academics with no real world credentials. IMHO that is why both failed.

I was at Intel at the time of the Itanium release, working on the X86 side, so maybe I am a bit biased. And guess what? The group I worked for had designed an enhanced ARM architecture processor that was, at 1Gz, the fastest made. Intel never released it. This was in 2002.

 

.......there is a natural tendency to stay with what works and, in the case of a dominant company, they have something that has worked extremely well for a long time. Why risk upsetting that apple cart by pushing into areas that have the potential to displace it? The status quo is your friend.

Wbahn;
Related to your post, this is also exactly what happened to Kodak and digital photography.
Kodak was first and foremost, a chemical company. Chemicals that created images, that is, in the form of photosensitive emulsions and dyes applied to paper or plastic carriers.
Digital photography could displace the very technologies which Kodak fully dominated, and replace them with unknown ones. Kodak management of course, balked.

(*) sidenote: although at the time, Fuji Film was already starting to erode some of Kodak's absolute supremacy.

 

Wbahn;
Related to your post, this is also exactly what happened to Kodak and digital photography.
Kodak was first and foremost, a chemical company. Chemicals that created images, that is, in the form of photosensitive emulsions and dyes applied to paper or plastic carriers.
Digital photography could displace the very technologies which Kodak fully dominated, and replace them with unknown ones. Kodak management of course, balked.

(*) sidenote: although at the time, Fuji Film was already starting to erode some of Kodak's absolute supremacy.

We had one of their 'instant' cameras a long, long time ago. I never really liked the images it produced though, but it did not rely on hard-to-get IC chips.
I had a really expensive Rollie camera which took amazing pictures. It's completely obsolete now though. I still have a smaller one, also expensive, that takes amazing pictures too with the Carl Zeiss lens. It's also obsolete and I have not used it since I got my first digital camera and that one was not even that good. I didn't get a good digital camera until years later, and now THAT is obsolete too now! The phone has a pixel count that far exceeds most of the digital cameras out there. Even my older phone had a 40 Megapixel resolution which beat my nice digital cameras already.

Technology upon technology, until the chips run out

 

I also had a digital camera with Zeiss lenses, a Sony Cybershot, only 5 Mpixel. but with amazing optical capabilities.

The image below may not seem like much, until one realizes that for the dark background all of the room lights were turned on, and two synchronized flashes were utilized to light up the smoke. This is how bright the initial match's flame is.
Further complications were that this was taken in the macro-lens mode, yet everything is sharply focused. One can clearly see the phosphorus contribution to the combustion (white flames).

The second image also highlights other optical capabilities, to be able to take photos in IR mode. One can see, specifically on the clouds, that certain details which are invisible in normal light will become evident with IR light. This is most evident in the false-color IR exposure, where the light-blue cloud formations are invisible in the normal color photo.

 

I also had a digital camera with Zeiss lenses, a Sony Cybershot, only 5 Mpixel. but with amazing optical capabilities.

The image below may not seem like much, until one realizes that for the dark background all of the room lights were turned on, and two synchronized flashes were utilized to light up the smoke. This is how bright the initial match's flame is.
Further complications were that this was taken in the macro-lens mode, yet everything is sharply focused. One can clearly see the phosphorus contribution to the combustion (white flames).

The second image also highlights other optical capabilities, to be able to take photos in IR mode. One can see, specifically on the clouds, that certain details which are invisible in normal light will become evident with IR light. This is most evident in the false-color IR exposure, where the light-blue cloud formations are invisible in the normal color photo.
View attachment 356175View attachment 356176

Oh that flame pic is cool

Yes the smoke was captured just right, at the right time.

 

I know that it is immensely satisfying to bash Florida weather, but returning to the original topic…..

There are many explanations for Intel’s decline, but IMHO, their excessive reliance on the X86 architecture blindsided them on the ARM and GPU revolution. This compounded with the stock buybacks to keep shares strong, while ignoring the rapid advances from overseas companies, they didn’t have the motivation to invest enough in the new technologies to upgrade their aging products.
This behavior is not unique to Intel. Boeing and many other companies which had enjoyed extreme worldwide success, became complacent, only to wake up from their stupor once that they had irremediably lost the race.
Just exactly like Aesop's fable, “The Tortoise and the Hare.”

It may not be x86 that causes the woes, accordingly intel invested heavily to develop new nodes such as 18A with large numbers of expensive EUV machines.
during the 'covid' times ('work from home') it seemed demand is very good so much so that there is a semiconductor shortage, masking the issues.
the new nodes takes time and huge investments to build.
then that 'covid' is over and the new 18A fabs (and the process lines) is just about ready and demand dropped.
and while intel tries to convince 3rd parties to sign on with their fab services, they (the 3rd parties) blame high costs and yield issues (I think the yields may be low initially but that things should improve as the engineers work out the issues, hence it is just an excuse, in fact intel claimed that their yield is 'ok').
hence, the current issues is due to falling demand (vs during covid), it is a 'cyclic' issues.
we'd need another 'covid' to supercharge the demand, maybe Microsoft ending Windows 10 support is it.
https://www.microsoft.com/en-sg/windows/end-of-support?r=1
Windows 10 support ends on October 14, 2025
https://support.microsoft.com/en-us...-14-2025-2ca8b313-1946-43d3-b55c-2b95b107f281

 

https://www.semafor.com/article/10/01/2025/intel-amd-foundry-customer-deal

Intel in early talks to add AMD as foundry customer

It’s unclear how much of AMD’s manufacturing would shift to Intel if the two companies reach a deal, or whether it would come with a direct investment by AMD, similar to the deals cut by other companies. It is possible that no agreement will be reached, the people said.

Spokespeople for Intel and AMD declined to comment. Intel shares rose around 3.5% on the news and are up around 77% for the year.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/china...owned-computer-chip-firm-nexperia-2025-10-12/
In rare move, Dutch government takes control of China-owned chipmaker Nexperia

A copy of an Amsterdam commercial court ruling dated October 7 and seen by Reuters showed that the court decided on October 1 to suspend Wingtech CEO Zhang Xuezheng from his position as executive director at Nexperia after finding "well founded reasons to doubt" the company was pursuing correct management policy or actions under Dutch civil law. It appointed Dutch businessman Guido Dierick to take Zhang's position with a "deciding vote", and transferred control of almost all of Nexperia's shares to a Dutch lawyer for management. The Dutch state and the company's labour council had supported the moves, the document showed.

 

 

 

https://www.kgw.com/article/money/b...warn/283-7bb6e0c5-fb8d-4dd2-80ef-5cea3d5fecea

PORTLAND, Ore. — Troubled tech giant Intel began laying off hundreds of employees in Oregon more than two months ago, according to a belated filing with the state.
According to a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification, or WARN notice, Intel began laying off a total of 669 employees back on Sept. 16. However, the company did not notify state or local officials of the "upcoming" layoffs until Thursday.

https://www.datawrapper.de/_/gAWmw/

Lots of AI related job cuts.

 

https://archive.ph/20251119085617/h...k-control-of-chinese-owned-chipmaker-nexperia

The Dutch government suspended its powers over chipmaker Nexperia, restoring control to its Chinese owner and defusing a standoff with Beijing that had begun to hamper automotive production around the world.
...
The move marks a significant de-escalation of a dispute that underscored the global nature of supply chains and highlighted Beijing’s growing leverage. Even though Nexperia’s chips aren’t advanced and the company only operates one facility in China, the spat disrupted automakers from Honda Motor Co. to Volkswagen AG.

“a show of goodwill”


Matured, long-life cycle products are what can make or break the semiconductor market.

 

I know that process well.
https://forum.allaboutcircuits.com/threads/decoupling-capacitors.117020/post-917031

 

https://www.culpium.com/p/exclusiveapple-is-fighting-for-tsmc

When CC Wei visited Cupertino last August, he had bad news for his largest client. Apple would need to acquiesce to the largest price rise in years, TSMC’s CEO told its executives.

Tim Cook and his team took the news on the chin. Wei had been telegraphing hikes in earnings calls over the past few quarters, and the Taiwanese chip maker’s rising gross margins were testament to its increasing pricing power.

That wasn’t the worst news, my sources tell me.

Apple, which once held a dominant position on TSMC’s customer list, now needs to fight for production capacity. With the continuing AI boom, and each GPU from clients like Nvidia and AMD taking up a larger footprint per wafer, the iPhone maker’s chip designs are no longer guaranteed a place among TSMC’s almost two dozen fabs.

This distinction may not matter now, but it probably will at some point. The AI boom won’t last forever. The bubble may burst, or it may slowly deflate, but the growth trajectory will surely flatten and that means demand for leading-edge AI chips will fall.

Wei knows this, which is why he’s expanding both quickly yet cautiously. “I am also very nervous,” he said at the company’s investor conference on Thursday in Taipei. “If we didn’t do it carefully, it would be a big disaster for TSMC for sure.”

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-forecasts-first-quarter-sales-210224582.html?guccounter=1
Intel struggles to meet AI data center demand, shares drop 13%

The forecast underscores the difficulties faced by Intel in predicting global chip markets, where the company's current products are the result of decisions made years ago. The company, whose shares have risen 40% in the past month, recently launched a long-awaited laptop chip designed to reclaim its lead in ‌personal computers just as a memory chip crunch is expected to depress sales across that industry.

Meanwhile, Intel executives said the company was caught off guard by surging demand for server central processors that accompany AI chips. Despite running its factories at capacity, Intel ‌cannot keep up with demand for the chips, leaving profitable data center sales on the table while the new PC chip squeezes its margins.

 

https://investor.ti.com/news-releases/news-release-details/texas-instruments-acquire-silicon-labs

DALLAS and AUSTIN, Texas, Feb. 4, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Texas Instruments (Nasdaq: TXN), a global semiconductor company that designs, manufactures and sells analog and embedded processing chips, and Silicon Labs (Nasdaq: SLAB), a leader in secure, intelligent wireless technology, today announced they have signed a definitive agreement under which Texas Instruments will acquire Silicon Labs for $231.00 per share in an all-cash transaction, representing a total enterprise value of approximately $7.5 billion.

 

https://www.theverge.com/tech/881062/ram-shortage-kill-products-companies-phison-ceo-interview

It’s genuinely possible that some companies won’t be able to secure enough RAM. AI data centers are gobbling up the vast majority of the world’s memory supply as part of a global buildout, creating an unprecedented imbalance in supply and demand that’s seen RAM prices triple, quadruple, or even sextuple over the past handful of months. Even Nvidia might skip shipping a gaming GPU for the first time in 30 years. Even Apple may have trouble securing enough RAM now, not to mention memory chips for SSDs, and other vital components.
The RAM shortage may affect everything that computing touches over the next several years, as only three companies control 93 percent of the entire DRAM market, and while those three companies are building more facilities, they don’t want to build too fast. All three have decided to prioritize profits instead of risking overproduction that could lose them money later.

Can't say I blame the fabs, after being burned so many times in the past.

 

"It’s genuinely possible that some companies won’t be able to secure enough RAM."

Heck, I can't secure enough RAM (or SSDs) at a reasonable price!

 

I rode the JDSU stock bubble right to the top and cashed out before it blew-up. A possible AI bubble might be worse.

 

https://petapixel.com/2026/03/27/so...ire-memory-card-business-due-to-ssd-shortage/
Sony Shuts Down Nearly Its Entire Memory Card Business Due to Flash Shortage

The aforementioned SSD shortage is due entirely to the seemingly endless hunger of AI datacenters for memory. The cost of memory components is going up because the supply for the actual dies that make up all types of SSDs is finite and being largely consumed by enterprise companies looking to expand AI data centers. But it isn’t stopping at price increases. Because supply is finite, that also means that at some point, there simply isn’t enough hardware to even make certain products anymore.

As a result, Sony has decided to back out of memory card manufacturing until the market stabilizes. It’s the first to do this in the photography segment, but it is unlikely to be the last.