Thought for the day...

I just want my money back from last time. I'm heading to Vegas on April fools day on a comped trip. "I Should Be So Lucky", right?:D

I don't know how you guys can go to casinos. Been to Vegas exactly twice, both many years ago and both times related to work. One night, for lack of anything to do, I played nickel slots (with actual nickels). I did this knowing full well that the likelihood of winning was against me but I was bored to tears. I'm not sure I even understood what went on in the machine - it was based on an Addams Family theme and there were many ways to play which all amount to put your money in and press a button. I got 7 Uncle Festers or some such thing and won about $20.

But seriously, how can one play a game that you know that probability is against you? In horse race handicapping you can claim that you are better at estimating the probabilities than the public (to an extent that also accounts for take out). Similar situation in sports betting - believing you are better than the odds makers. Something like that can go on in Poker too.

But those casino games, slots, video poker, craps all that - knowing what you know, how can you do it?

I long time ago, I had a heated argument with a colleague who was preaching about how the State should never have a lottery because they are arranged against the public (usually lotteries return about 50%, making them about the worst gamble of all). I argued, mostly because I didn't like the guy, that he was unable to see the value of hope!

Who knows, maybe I was right.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,086

I don't know how you guys can go to casinos.
It's easy, don't go to win. Vegas is about 80° F and dry that time of year vs 60° F and rain in Oregon with nice pools and plenty of entertainment instead of gambling all night. The family has a combined weeks room comp, $500 in free play with free dinners for a few days. You can play nickle and dime and be bored or you can use a larger bank roll with a stop loss for later resort offers linked to the amount of cash churn. The equivalent weeks resort cost in a non gambling venue is higher even with moderate gambling and random luck.

 
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joeyd999

Joined Jun 6, 2011
5,237
I don't know how you guys can go to casinos.
If one approaches it for what it is -- entertainment -- I've got no problem with it.

I'd likely go home with something more valuable having spent $20 in a casino than having spent $20 for a Hollywood movie.

Besides, I've developed a heck of a Blackjack strategy. It works great in simulation.

I just need you to spot me about $10K so I can test it in real life.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,086
If one approaches it for what it is -- entertainment -- I've got no problem with it.

I'd likely go home with something more valuable having spent $20 in a casino than having spent $20 for a Hollywood movie.

Besides, I've developed a heck of a Blackjack strategy. It works great in simulation.

I just need you to spot me about $10K so I can test it in real life.
Exactly. If I just wanted to gamble then a local Indian casino would work to waste my money. Vegas casinos’ rewards programs are great if you have the discipline to
use them to your advantage. Gamble less with higher bets and lower risk games because in time you will lose all your gambling money.


The @joeyd999 Blackjack strategy.
Just put that $10K on your credit card. ;)
 
It's easy, don't go to win. Vegas is about 80° F and dry that time of year vs 60° F and rain in Oregon with nice pools and plenty of entertainment instead of gambling all night. The family has a combined weeks room comp, $500 in free play with free dinners for a few days. You can play nickle and dime and be bored or you can use a larger bank roll with a stop loss for later resort offers linked to the amount of cash churn. The equivalent weeks resort cost in a non gambling venue is higher even with moderate gambling and random luck.

OK, everybody finds their own way and you make a good case for entertainment value and all that....it's not for me, but if you subtract the gambling on those games, I can see how you would do it and enjoy it.

Given all discussed, however, I am a bit surprised at your use of the phrase "random luck".
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,086
OK, everybody finds their own way and you make a good case for entertainment value and all that....it's not for me, but if you subtract the gambling on those games, I can see how you would do it and enjoy it.

Given all discussed, however, I am a bit surprised at your use of the phrase "random luck".
It cuts both ways, the casino is also making a gamble with the 'free' offers that they will make money on the deal so that puts some element of risk on them instead of totally on me.

I would call winning on slots in a way that seems unlikely to the extreme "random luck" as opposed to luck while playing a card game with odds and humans.

I've seen streaks of luck that were uncanny on slot machines that operate using hardware RNG based odds in Vegas. I made $300 as a players luck charm once just low betting next to a guy on a winning streak that netted huge wins of $6000+ in the space of 20 mins on $3.50 bets. The odds of any one spin winning a jackpot are the same but seeing several in a row was weird and a whole hell of a lot of fun watching it happen.
 
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The odds of any one spin winning a jackpot are the same but seeing several in a row was weird and a whole hell of a lot of fun watching it happen.
Reminds me of the scene in the movie Casino: Dinero as Ace is telling the Idiot Cowboy that the odds of three jackpots..."Can not happen...would not happen" [language is a little too strong to link it here]

The history of pseudo random number generators is interesting and it does not surprise me that in earlier days there were, what now seem to be obvious, missteps, whether slot machines or predicting packet sequence numbers.

Then, of course, there is the case of Ronald Dale Harris, the programmer (and there are others).
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,086
Reminds me of the scene in the movie Casino: Dinero as Ace is telling the Idiot Cowboy that the odds of three jackpots..."Can not happen...would not happen" [language is a little too strong to link it here]

The history of pseudo random number generators is interesting and it does not surprise me that in earlier days there were, what now seem to be obvious, missteps, whether slot machines or predicting packet sequence numbers.

Then, of course, there is the case of Ronald Dale Harris, the programmer (and there are others).
I don't see it as a missstep. The odds of me being the person to see it happen along with the odds of it happening somewhere and at sometime is a normal distribution of random number sequences. To be a truly and not pseudorandom with no analog random sources for key sequences random generator (each number totally unrelated to past or possible future numbers) there can't be a lockout of any number of consecutive or close spaced wins from determinism. The Hit Frequency level(s) (like a trigger set-point) selects the range of any generated random number being a winning combination for how 'loose' a machine is. Then there is a payout percentage for what you can get for average play for wins over a long period of time. There are machines like the 'Walking Dead' example above where the machine is 'tight', the short term payout percentage is usually low but the volatility/variance (payouts, while larger, are fewer and farther between) is high with the upper range of a good jackpot being very high.

What happens when you have bad pseudorandom number generators in poorly designed (how the random number generator is used) slot machines.

https://www.wired.com/2017/02/russians-engineer-brilliant-slot-machine-cheat-casinos-no-fix/
Recognizing those patterns would require remarkable effort. Slot machine outcomes are controlled by programs called pseudorandom number generators that produce baffling results by design. Government regulators, such as the Missouri Gaming Commission, vet the integrity of each algorithm before casinos can deploy it.
http://gaming.nv.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2786
14.040(2) - Describe all random number generation processes and all game outcome selection processes. Identify algorithm used and show step by step implementation of the random number generator in the source code. Attach a copy of the source code used for the random number generation and the random selection process as well as a description of how the RNG is seeded. The RNG should not use static seeds upon initialization and the seeding process should rely upon at least one non predictable factor (i.e. human interaction of turning a key). Identify RAM address locations, as the CPU sees them for random number generator seeds, parameters and data outcomes, etc. Does the RNG continuously “cycle” even when no game is being played and while not in a tilt or error state? The RNG should continue to cycle at a minimum of 100Hz (100 calls per second). Please provide the cycle frequency of the RNG and a description of how the frequency was verified.

o (a) Is every possible permutation or combination of game elements which produce winning or losing combinations available for random selection at the start of each game?
 
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nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,086
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/united-airlines-bonus-for-employees-now-a-lottery/
"As we look to continue improving, we took a step back and decided to replace the quarterly operational bonus and perfect attendance programs with an exciting new rewards program," Kirby wrote a memo sent to employees on Friday. So long as United hits at least one performance goal, there would be a quarterly drawing for prizes including luxury cars, vacation packages or cash from two grand to $40,000, with one employee getting a grand prize of $100,000, the Chicago journal reported.

The notion that those not lucky enough to win a prize would be left with nothing to show for their efforts seemingly did not go over well with rank-and-file workers at United.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,086
o_O ... what's the point of a work bonus when it's entirely based on luck?
My my my! That didn't last very long.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-united-bonus-lottery-20180306-story.html
Scott Kirby, president of the Chicago-based airline, said United was “pressing the pause button” on changes that would have handed out larger bonuses to only a fraction of its workers after hearing employees’ feedback since announcing the changes late last week.

“Our intention was to introduce a better, more exciting program, but we misjudged how these changes would be received by many of you,” Kirby said in a letter to employees on Monday.
 

WBahn

Joined Mar 31, 2012
29,979
This is the kind of nonsense we can expect as the "participation trophy" generation moves into management positions.

Once again, we can be seen rewarding performance in any way, but need to instead make it so that everyone is equal and has the same opportunity to reap the benefits of whatever.

I liked the one comment suggesting that senior-level bonuses and stock options should be handled the same way. Perhaps all perks such as executive parking spaces and corner offices should be assigned by lottery, too.
 
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