The current is closer to 10mA. I think this will make you rethink things, but just in case, here's the math. If you assume the load is constant current (which you are), the simplified version isHi,
I'm still not counting on a 1 mill bleed current off a 100 mike cap causing appreciable ripple, certainly not as much as 1.2 volts. With 10 mikes, maybe. But I think the 100 mike cap will charge right up to peak.
V(ripple)=IT/C
V(ripple=.01*.02/1e-4
V(ripple)=2V
Simulation shows ripple is lower (about 1.5V p-p), due to the fact that the peak voltage is slightly less than 10, the current is not constant, and, more importantly, the discharge ramp is intercepted by a sinusoid.