​

 

https://medium.com/@ali_razavian/covid-19-from-a-data-scientists-perspective-95bd4e84843b

1- COVID19 is far more contagious than previously assumed.
2- More than 96% of the population will get the disease and transmit it without developing serious symptoms. This extremely high and dark number of cases is the reason that so many contradictory conclusion comes out of this disease.
3- The pandemic period is around 75 days. in the first three weeks, the number of cases increases exponentially, in the next three weeks, the number of new cases per day plateau and in the final 3 weeks, the number of new cases drops exponentially.
4- The incubation period is 5 days on average and the symptomatic period is 2–3 weeks. Which means, by the time the first death is recorded, the exponential period of growth is almost over, although it will take another three weeks for the fatality rate to stop growing exponentially.

7- COVID19’s fatality rate is 0.06%, slightly less than the seasonal flu’s CFR. But you are 300 times more likely to catch COVID19 than the flu. remember that when you calculate the risk for yourself.

 

The more I research, the worse things look for how this is being handled. For example the scream for ventilators is very likely misdirected. I stopped listening to any of the "top doctor" updates. I have been screwed enough by the medical system already and I see how badly disorganized it is first hand.

Take care of your own health and dont line up for the "immunization passport" you might not want to be that guinnea pig. Our science has not advanced that far since one of the leading causes of death is medical errors

https://derangedphysiology.com/main...ion/Chapter 929/mechanical-ventilation-severe

 

Our science has not advanced that far since one of the leading causes of death is medical errors...

Including the opioid epidemic, arguably an offshoot of medical errors, death by medicine is THE leading cause of death in the U.S. Makes the virus look like a joke.

The virus is going to dramatically drop the overall death rate because people aren’t going to their doctors.

 

https://medium.com/@ali_razavian/covid-19-from-a-data-scientists-perspective-95bd4e84843b

Huh, did I slip a decimal? I though the testing out of New York was showing a 0.8% fatality rate. Maybe that is still heavily biased by the sampling, versus the entire population data out of Iceland.

 

Take care of your own health and dont line up for the "immunization passport" you might not want to be that guinnea pig.

Aye!

Be not the first by whom the new are tried, Nor yet the last to lay the old aside...

Our science has not advanced that far since one of the leading causes of death is medical errors

...And, indeed, disorders recognized from medieval times --- e.g. treatment of many [in situ] neoplastic lesions remains little more than excision or ablation (i.e. 'cut' or 'burn', if you will) -- In cases of broad metastasis/total involvement and certain instances of inoperability -- it's "poison the patient to within a nm of his/her life and hope everything 'shakes out' for the best" -- Yeah! Ok! I grant that I'm sounding a bit cynical this evening - to be fair much is 'in the works' in the way of immunotherapy and yes 'parasitic illness' (a 'class' [informally albeit aptly] subsumptive of neoplastic disorders) pose a significant challenge for their ability to "intelligently" 'get round' the 'immune system' -- Still there's no excuse for the embarrassingly low progress:time ratio...

Our science has not advanced that far since one of the leading causes of death is medical errors

To be fair, it has been my observation that such is, in essence, down to the 'industrialization' of healthcare --as opposed to-- inept/negligent practitioners... None of which constitutes an excuse, of course.

View attachment 205213​

Klien bottles are cool but IMESHO The Magdalene Sphere is 'where it's at' as single surface polydimensional forms go! -- trouble is, five dimensional thinking does nothing to sooth my occipital neuralgia

. Welcome to the VA

Now there's a cheery note to end the day on! -- Jeeez! Thanks, Joey! [/sarcasm]

Best regards
HP

 

To be fair, it has been my observation that such is, in essence, down to the 'industrialization' of healthcare --as opposed to-- inept/negligent practitioners... None of which constitutes an excuse, of course.

Best regards
HP

As one self help guru put it, the "Medical Industrial Complex".

It seems that along the way the economy vs heath care pricing vs human care vs medical professionals becoming more and more greedy changed the face of medical care. In short medical care became more of a super corporation with its prime intent on not just sustaining itself but on becoming more wealthy. At the same time it seems doctors began abusing the insurance corporations as they seem to be able to demand anything they want.
One thing i noticed is that many regular job wages have not followed the economic climate while the doctor/health care prices did.

Maybe this pandemic is just a highlighting marker for what was happening all along little my little year by year, too slow for many people to take notice and try to fix. Is this the avenue by which the country will fall.

 

I’m not an elected official, so I don’t have the resources to present a solution.

Work-at-home opportunities should be expanded. Instead of handouts, temporary tax regulations should be used to enhance working-from-home. Only if they are results and not promised based. If you do this and a review confirms the added value, a percentage of that value should be returned via a tax credit. No more gift handouts. Those providing financial assistance must be given the authority to manage the assistance.

Restaurants should be encouraged to switch over to a take out model. The online infrastructure already exists. Again, tax credits to those providing the infrastructure should be given based on results; overall value to the economy. The same oversight requirements apply.

Real, massive testing should take place. Current testing is inhibited because of the infighting between the administration and the world. With “massive” testing, perhaps we can open up the schools.

Contact tracing should become the law of the land. Data collected must be anonymized and expire at the end of the crisis.

Massive cultural education is needed. We can’t return to normal, BECAUSE THESE ARE NOT NORMAL TIMES. Citizens complaining about their loss of freedom should consider the freedom of those who get infected. What they are clamoring for us actually taking rights away from others.

Well your opinion is certainly worthwhile because we dont want everyone dead. But what is happening now is there are other problems cropping up because of the pandemic and that also involves a death rate now and we cant just ignore that so we have to find a balance. It's a trade off just like in electronics where we often have to give up one nice property for a not as nice one but in the end we get a product that works for nearly everyone. It's an optimization problem where many things have to be considered in order to come up with a workable solution.
If the economy crashes too hard everyone disabled and many people retired will go broke rather quickly.

I dont want to see anyone die i know first hand the hardship it causes mostly on family members who must go on to live with that sheer horror in mind for the rest of their lives. But as Ron pointed out, some of us are either nearing 65 or over 65 and even we want to see more relaxed policies.
I have also read and seen on the news now that some states are much much more relaxed than my state and other states and the people are acting responsible by staying home WITHOUT the need for restrictions from their gov.

Let Freedom Ring.

 

As one self help guru put it, the "Medical Industrial Complex".

It seems that along the way the economy vs heath care pricing vs human care vs medical professionals becoming more and more greedy changed the face of medical care. In short medical care became more of a super corporation with its prime intent on not just sustaining itself but on becoming more wealthy. At the same time it seems doctors began abusing the insurance corporations as they seem to be able to demand anything they want.
One thing i noticed is that many regular job wages have not followed the economic climate while the doctor/health care prices did.

Maybe this pandemic is just a highlighting marker for what was happening all along little my little year by year, too slow for many people to take notice and try to fix. Is this the avenue by which the country will fall.

There is no doubt that a disconnect exists between charges ("retail") for medical care and what is actually paid for such care ("wholesale"). That was in part discussed in a recent thread by WBahn on costs. However, the sequence of events you propose is not correct. Rather than "Medical Industrial Complex" it should be "Medical Insurance Government Complex."

As discussed in that other thread, "retail" prices were ratcheted up as percentage of reimbursement was ratcheted down, but almost no one pays retail today. They are either covered by private insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, or simply do not pay. Insurance companies and hospitals may sue patients for payment. It's relatively uncommon for physicians to do that, as the patient is sure to counterclaim malpractice. (Physicians may send a bill to collectors, but despite threats rarely go past that point. Patients whose accounts are sent to collectors can demand that such activities be stopped.)

Today what is happening in hospitals is that salaried employees are taking 10% (or more) pay cuts. Hourly employees and unionized employees are exempt from such cuts. The major provider group in the hourly/union group is nurses. Maintenance, dietary, security and other ancillary services are also in that exempt group. Laboratory techs are a mixed bag. They can be union, hourly, or salary.

 

The fatality rate is looking to be about 0.8% of tested people (which so far is biased towards people with symptoms). That’s 8 in a thousand. For you to know 6 is remarkable. You move in larger circles than I do. I don’t even know of anyone with a positive test.

But what all if your statistics don’t tell you, is the grief of the families from whom the coronavirus has taken a loved one.

I live in Massachusetts. I believe we have the third highest death rate in the country.

The only reason Florida or Kentucky has been spared is the social distancing and shutdown has reduced the death numbers.

For any state rushing to eliminate restrictions, remember the math. They will experience their own personal hell surge. And if they’re lucky, they’ll only meet New York and Massachusetts numbers.

My condolences. To date I have no personal experience with it. Nobody I know, that I am aware of, diagnosed with it and nobody I know has died from it. May I ask if those you lost had pre existing conditions and their ages? I am 70 and the lungs are not what they once were. Yes, COPD which just puts me at higher risk and my wife being treated cancer has less an immune system. That said I am not going to indefinitely remain a prisoner in my own home.

Ron

Three were elderly. The remaining three were in their 30s-40s. One was older and had a preexisting condition(obesity) and three were over 65. Unless being over 65 is considered a pre-existing condition.

Still 50/50.

 

It's already collapsing. Doctors and nurses are being laid off in droves all over the country. Hospitals are going bankrupt from lack of elective surgery.

In the end, all that'll be left is gov't provided healthcare. Welcome to the VA.

I have a required urology surgery that I’m waiting for. I don’t know who makes up the rules for the drive surgery, but I don’t think this is elective.

 

Well your opinion is certainly worthwhile because we dont want everyone dead. But what is happening now is there are other problems cropping up because of the pandemic and that also involves a death rate now and we cant just ignore that so we have to find a balance. It's a trade off just like in electronics where we often have to give up one nice property for a not as nice one but in the end we get a product that works for nearly everyone. It's an optimization problem where many things have to be considered in order to come up with a workable solution.
If the economy crashes too hard everyone disabled and many people retired will go broke rather quickly.

I dont want to see anyone die i know first hand the hardship it causes mostly on family members who must go on to live with that sheer horror in mind for the rest of their lives. But as Ron pointed out, some of us are either nearing 65 or over 65 and even we want to see more relaxed policies.
I have also read and seen on the news now that some states are much much more relaxed than my state and other states and the people are acting responsible by staying home WITHOUT the need for restrictions from their gov.

Let Freedom Ring.

The question to ask is if these ‘other’ deaths have a causality connection for CORVID-19. Then diverting resources to them are counter productive.

I see so many unattributed quotes sand statistics. IMHO these statements are presumed false without valid and relevant provenance provided.

 

I have a required urology surgery that I’m waiting for. I don’t know who makes up the rules for the drive surgery, but I don’t think this is elective.

Boy, you let good points just fly right over your head.

It is elective surgery that makes hospitals profitable. This keeps them open -- and medical professionals employed -- so they are available for non-elective (i.e. necessary) surgeries.

But since you'd rather have a "work-at-home" economy, perhaps you'd like to hire your own personal surgeon, anesthesiologist, nursing staff, office personnel, janitors, etc. and let them perform your urological surgery in your living room. Of course, you'd have to purchase all the capital equipment and medical supplies that a profitable hospital will already have on hand.

No wonder why "fantasi" is part of your pseudonym. It's the world in which you live.

 

There is no doubt that a disconnect exists between charges ("retail") for medical care and what is actually paid for such care ("wholesale"). That was in part discussed in a recent thread by WBahn on costs. However, the sequence of events you propose is not correct. Rather than "Medical Industrial Complex" it should be "Medical Insurance Government Complex."

As discussed in that other thread, "retail" prices were ratcheted up as percentage of reimbursement was ratcheted down, but almost no one pays retail today. They are either covered by private insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, or simply do not pay. Insurance companies and hospitals may sue patients for payment. It's relatively uncommon for physicians to do that, as the patient is sure to counterclaim malpractice. (Physicians may send a bill to collectors, but despite threats rarely go past that point. Patients whose accounts are sent to collectors can demand that such activities be stopped.)

Today what is happening in hospitals is that salaried employees are taking 10% (or more) pay cuts. Hourly employees and unionized employees are exempt from such cuts. The major provider group in the hourly/union group is nurses. Maintenance, dietary, security and other ancillary services are also in that exempt group. Laboratory techs are a mixed bag. They can be union, hourly, or salary.

Hello,

I am not sure what you are talking about.

For one thing, "Medical Industrial Complex" subsumes "Medical Insurance Government Complex".

For anther thing, cost is not absolute, retail or otherwise. It is relative, relative to the persons income. Someone making 100k per year can usually afford the 20 percent Medicate charges, but someone making 15k per year has a MUCH harder time affording that, and that is because the cost went up so much that even that 20 percent can mean a lot of money to a LOT of people. Why do you think so many people on disability and retirement income have so much trouble paying for medical bills.
Here is one example: cataract surgery in one area is 2000 USD and 20 percent of that is 400 USD. That is a significant reduction but for two eyes that is 800 USD plus the required comprehensive initial exam is 300 USD for a total of 1100 USD for both eyes. That is quite a steep cost for someone making 15k per year. I think some people in places like Georgia get even less than that maybe less than 10k per year.

But call it whatever you want, it's the same thing really.
I guess it is the evil side of capitalism.

But to get back on track here...
I went to the store again this morning and everyone was wearing a mask again. I guess that is good because it does seem logical because the virus is transmitted mostly by small droplets released when people cough, sneeze, or even just talk normally (i never knew that before this though, the talking part that is). Originally i was against wearing a mask but now i see the logic behind it.
So a mask can protect others as well as yourself. I was lucky i got one from someone i know in the medical profession or else i probably wouldnt have one yet and would not be allowed to go in many stores even for necessary food.
I did find a workaround though one day, i ordered a pizza and sub sandwich to be delivered to the house (he he) and that got me two more days of being able to stay inside.

Well, stay safe folks.

 

The question to ask is if these ‘other’ deaths have a causality connection for CORVID-19. Then diverting resources to them are counter productive.

I see so many unattributed quotes sand statistics. IMHO these statements are presumed false without valid and relevant provenance provided.

I am not sure you realize it but what you are implying is that NONE of the 'other' causes of death can be NOT related to covid nineteen. Do you really believe that ALL other causes of death had ceased to exist just so the covid thing could claim success on being responsible for ALL deaths now?

Yes i like to see numbers too but i think we are seeing some come in recently. I will keep an eye open and quote any i find relevant as soon as possible.

 

I have a required urology surgery that I’m waiting for. I don’t know who makes up the rules for the drive surgery, but I don’t think this is elective.

Oh sorry to hear that, i hope you are able to get in there soon.
I wish you good luck too.

 

I had a video chat to get my “Breo” a non-steroid inhaler refilled the only benefit is that the Heart and Lung Doctor gives me a year of refills if I check out. When I got the bill for $173.00 I was shocked. The chat lasted about 20 minutes of questions, so apparently the Health Care Network is paying a company to use their VPN to protect my information, but $173.00 ? I guess that would be around what it costs to maintain a network because we charged at the University when doing our classes broadcast over Utah Education Network billing them at $300 an hr. It’s about correct, but I think there might be a little price gouging.

kv

Edit: Also not one penny was paid by my insurance company. It’s not considered as standard to do video chats.

 

I guess it is the evil side of capitalism.

There is no evil side of capitalism. If not for capitalism, cataract surgery would not even exist. Then everyone would be equally blind -- regardless of income.

 

I am not sure you realize it but what you are implying is that NONE of the 'other' causes of death can be NOT related to covid nineteen. Do you really believe that ALL other causes of death had ceased to exist just so the covid thing could claim success on being responsible for ALL deaths now?

Yes i like to see numbers too but i think we are seeing some come in recently. I will keep an eye open and quote any i find relevant as soon as possible.

Thanks for pointing that out.

Of course, I DID NOT mean to imply that NONE of the 'other' causes of death can be NOT related to covid nineteen. (the double negative is confusing.)

I MEANT to imply that SOME of the other causes of Death MAY BE related to COVID-19.

I find it mildly insulting that you suggested I really believe ALL other causes of death has ceased to exist just so COVID-19 could claim responsibility for ALL deaths now?

Of course I don’t believe that.

 

I find it mildly insulting that you suggested I really believe ALL other causes of death has ceased to exist...

Maybe not all, but the CDC seem to be indicating that overall deaths are decreasing over the same period last year.