Alcohol kills Coronavirus, right? So all I have to do is drink it and I won't be infected!

Hundreds dead in Iran after consuming methanol thinking it was coronavirus protection
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...onavirus-protection/ar-BB11NijN?ocid=msedgntp

In a way, it does keep you from getting the virus....

 

97,000 US CONFIRMED cases. That's with incomplete testing. The real number is going to be much worse.

From what I saw on the news this morning in Utah, an average of 0.4% [edited] of those getting it have died from it.

I've become a workaholic these last few weeks.

What happened to make you change?

I find it difficult to remain idle while awake.

When were you awake?

Just kidding bro. Have at me if you like.

 

What happened to make you change?

Well, I have a choice:

Hang out all day with the family watching TV. Or work.

The answer -- to me -- seems self evident.

 

Age breakdown so far in Oregon.

Age group Cases Ever hospitalized‡ Deaths*
0 to 19 9 0 0
20 to 29 32 3 0
30 to 39 48 6 0
40 to 49 81 17 0
50 to 59 78 15 0
60 to 69 84 29 3
70 to 79 47 21 5
80 and over 35 11 4
Not available - - -
Total 414 102 12

 

BS. We have no idea how many are/were infected but either have no/mild symptoms or don't get tested.

The epidemiology of "regular" flu has been developed over dozens of years. This bug has been around for a couple of months. It's just plain stupid to try to draw conclusions on Covid now.

As the disease progresses, there will be more accurate info. Do you think nothing should be done? Are the epidemic experts worthless? Is overwhelming the health case system not a concern? What conclusions would not be "just plain stupid"?

 

What conclusions would not be "just plain stupid"?

Covid-19 is at least 25 times deadlier.

.

 

What I want to know is when the healers get sick - who heals the healers ? ? ?

 

.

I see, you object to the implied precision. How about "it is way deadlier".

 

I see, you object to the implied precision. How about "it is way deadlier".

Nope. Not enough info.

 

when the healers get sick...

14 days later they are immune...if they survive.

 

14 days later they are immune...if they survive.

Meanwhile - - - who's doing the healing?

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/eur...out-italian-village-nembro-death-has-returned

As soon as he felt well enough, parish priest Don Antonio started calling all the families in mourning to comfort them.
When the shops closed, the town council asked the parish to help them spread the word that groceries could be delivered. The shops got organised, and Cella put together a team of 40 teens, who went door-to-door to put fliers in all the postboxes.
“Another incredible thing,” he says, “are the volunteers who bring medicine to the sick, the elderly and those in quarantine. A strong sense of community has been rediscovered, and the territory has shown a deeply moving sense of human kindness.

 

The epidemiology of "regular" flu has been developed over dozens of years. This bug has been around for a couple of months. It's just plain stupid to try to draw conclusions on Covid now.

On that note,
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid...admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection

 

On that note,
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid...admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

People that work in healthcare have already noticed that there have been abnormal displays of flulike illness from which patients have fully recovered. These patients have been tested for flu and came back negative. This has started in November/december. It is not PC to tal about it. So what is this illness?
How many have already had coronavirus and we will never know. Will they do massive antibody tests to find out?

Hospital staff is being asked to reuse their PPE throughout the day by government that 2 weeks ago said they were ready...

 

Hospital staff is being asked to reuse their PPE throughout the day by government that 2 weeks ago said they were ready...

My wife is an ICU nurse. They are down to one N95 mask per 12 hour shift with a Covid-19 patient. Three week supply at that rate.

 

My take on this info.

1. The death rate for seasonal flu is 0.06% of cases. Covid-19 is around 1.5% in the US so far and much worse elsewhere. Covid-19 is at least 25 times deadlier.
2. Seasonal flu does not overwhelm the health care system. We will see in about two weeks how we do with Covid-19. If it does, the death rate will sky rocket.

Huge apples and oranges there.

The 0.06% number uses the estimated total number of flu infections, not the number of laboratory confirmed cases. Are you REALLY trying to claim that every single person in the U.S. that has CoVID-19 has been laboratory-tested? If so, then that would mean that the testing efforts here are one hell of a lot better than everyone is claiming. Much more likely is that, as with the seasonal flu, most of the people that are getting tested for it are people that are on the much serious end of the spectrum (though we are doing a lot more in the way of testing potential exposures than we ever do with the seasonal flu).

As with the regular flu, there are going to a huge (the overwhelming fraction) of people that get CoVID-19 and for whom it is a mild illness that they self-treat at home. In most years it takes the CDC and others at least two years to gather enough data from enough sources to make a "final" estimate of the burden of the seasonal flu and even then the numbers generally span a factor of two or three because of the huge uncertainty.

For the seasonal flu, only about two or three cases out of a thousand are ever laboratory tested and confirmed. If we guess that we are catching ten out of a thousand then that takes your 1.5% figure down to 0.015%. Unfortunately, it's not likely that rosy a picture because of the time lag involved. The deaths are people that have been sick for many days or even weeks, so we would need to use the confirmed cases from same time back and then divide that out. But which number? We'll have a much better idea in a couple years.

 

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid...dmits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model/

 

Huge apples and oranges there.

The 0.06% number uses the estimated total number of flu infections, not the number of laboratory confirmed cases. Are you REALLY trying to claim that every single person in the U.S. that has CoVID-19 has been laboratory-tested? If so, then that would mean that the testing efforts here are one hell of a lot better than everyone is claiming. Much more likely is that, as with the seasonal flu, most of the people that are getting tested for it are people that are on the much serious end of the spectrum (though we are doing a lot more in the way of testing potential exposures than we ever do with the seasonal flu).

As with the regular flu, there are going to a huge (the overwhelming fraction) of people that get CoVID-19 and for whom it is a mild illness that they self-treat at home. In most years it takes the CDC and others at least two years to gather enough data from enough sources to make a "final" estimate of the burden of the seasonal flu and even then the numbers generally span a factor of two or three because of the huge uncertainty.

For the seasonal flu, only about two or three cases out of a thousand are ever laboratory tested and confirmed. If we guess that we are catching ten out of a thousand then that takes your 1.5% figure down to 0.015%. Unfortunately, it's not likely that rosy a picture because of the time lag involved. The deaths are people that have been sick for many days or even weeks, so we would need to use the confirmed cases from same time back and then divide that out. But which number? We'll have a much better idea in a couple years.

So, are you saying the death rate for Covid-19 cases (0.015%) is less than seasonal flu? I just want to be clear on this point. My methodology aside, you think everything going on is pointless or a hoax? Your number means 1500/0.015% or 10,000,000 in the US are ill, minimum.

Edit: Or, another example, about 23% of the population of New York state is ill? 46,000 confirmed cases times 100 out of a population of about 20,000,000?

 

Just some data from Massachusetts, as of 3/25/2020.

There were 2,471 confirmed cases

There have been 25 confirmed deaths due to COVID-19

This is a projected death rate of 1%

The numbers change daily. Today, Massachusetts added another 679 confirmed cases. None of them have died yet.

 

I said it in the beginnings of this thread and will say it again, "Que Sera, Sera (Whatever Will Be, Will Be)". Nothing will change that. The so called experts when we get right down to it really haven't a clue what they or we are dealing with. The doctors who are the experts can't even agree so we have a few different little camps offering their thoughts. This will drag on for months and won't peak for another month to this will be over in two weeks. Let's upgrade projections, no wait, let's downgrade the projections we just upgraded. Nice thing about all of that is we get to choose which camp we want to support.

Many of us have taken college courses we saw as useless and following a semester were just glad it was over. One course I recall and remember among the most useless was "Decision Making Based on Statistical Analysis". The title would have us believe we would improve our decision making skills based on good valid data. The reality here is if we skew the numbers or manipulate them we can get any results we want. I guess this comes down to if we are going to choose a camp, choose it wisely.

Ron