https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/new-crisis-looming-beer-inventory-is-running-low/

As the country faces another month of quarantine, a new crisis looms on the horizon: Mexico is running out of beer.
...
He said on Thursday that Mexico’s 19,344 Oxxo stores have enough beer to last them the next 10 days, but many small businesses and distributors like Alejandro’s in Mexico City are already out of stock.

 

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/new-crisis-looming-beer-inventory-is-running-low/

I can attest to the veracity of that information, my friend. There is indeed no more national beer at the supermarkets any more. All that is left on the shelves is imported and craft beer.

That is why a couple of weeks ago I bought several bottles of gin and rum ...

 

Locked down day 33

 

I can attest to the veracity of that information, my friend. There is indeed no more national beer at the supermarkets any more. All that is left on the shelves is imported and craft beer.

That is why a couple of weeks ago I bought several bottles of gin and rum ...

See it's about vision. Knowing how not to get caught short. The thought of Mexico without domestic beer scares the hell out of me. This is getting serious.

Ron

 

See it's about vision. Knowing how not to get caught short. The thought of Mexico without domestic beer scares the hell out of me. This is getting serious.

Ron

This crisis will be over soon, hopefully ... at least alcohol-wise

 

See it's about vision. Knowing how not to get caught short. The thought of Mexico without domestic beer scares the hell out of me. This is getting serious.

Ron

We need to organize a restocking mission ASAP. What will we take in trade for the beer?

 

We need to organize a restocking mission ASAP. What will we take in trade for the beer?

Ohhhh you got that right... down here we got the best looking weather girls in the world...

 

The weather girls in Mexico could have me looking forward to a snow storm and be happy about it.

Ron

 

Regardless if I got the report in Spanish, I’d just like watching the weather movement.

kv

 

Quarantine Day 34

 

Autoimmune diseases are on the rises. No one knows why.

Some claim to know. Personally I put a lot of stock into Dr. Davis, a cardiologist who has mounted a crusade against sugar but more importantly grass seed consumption (wheat, corn, etc). In large part, it is responsible for the rise of autoimmune problems as well as rampant obesity. As the son of a wheat farmer it is a bit of a revelation that grains aren't fit for human consumption. Google wheatbelly for more info. He's recently noted a link between insulin resistance and vulnerability to the Wuhan virus.

I got sick right as the shutdown began. Took three weeks to climb out of it. Does anyone know if and when there will be widespread anti-body tests available? In March when I got sick I tried calling my doctor. The recording basically said unless you're dying don't even bother calling.

EDIT: Regarding anti-body testing, I saw this:

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/495772-alarm-bells-ring-over-controversial-covid-testing

 

Regardless if I got the report in Spanish, I’d just like watching the weather movement.

kv

We all enjoy watching a warm front moving in.

 

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/495772-alarm-bells-ring-over-controversial-covid-testing

It's not a report that say's they don't work, only that some are a lot better than others. There are 99%+ accurate COVID-19 antibody tests coming on the market now.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ant...curate-gets-emergency-clearance-by-fda-2020-5

US regulators authorized Sunday emergency use of a coronavirus antibody test that is more than 99% accurate, addressing concerns about high false positive rates that have plagued some of the first tests.

The test is made by Roche, a Swiss giant in the pharmaceutical and diagnostics industries. Roche said Sunday it will boost its manufacturing to produce "high double-digit millions per month" of the test.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.25.20074856v1.full.pdf

Results
Among specimens from SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR-positive individuals, the percent seropositive
increased with time interval, peaking at 81.8-100.0% in samples taken >20 days after symptom onset.
Test specificity ranged from 84.3-100.0% in pre-COVID-19 specimens. Specificity was higher when
weak LFA bands were considered negative, but this decreased sensitivity. IgM detection was more
variable than IgG, and detection was highest when IgM and IgG results were combined. Agreement
between ELISAs and LFAs ranged from 75.8-94.8%. No consistent cross-reactivity was observed.

By now there should be plenty of prevalence in the tested population so the odds of a correct result should be high.

 

A UK doctor confirming that Wuhan virus morbidity linked to obesity and consumption of sugar and starch.

 

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/05/a-useless-model.php

That IHME has the worst projections. Everyone (even the lefties) who understand classic pandemic models thinks it's horrible.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/5/2/21241261/coronavirus-modeling-us-deaths-ihme-pandemic

Another reason it rose in prominence was IHME’s decision to model the effects of strong social distancing measures. That choice proved correct — strong measures were indeed taken across the US — and the lower death numbers the model churned out as a result reportedly led to it being received favorably by the Trump administration.

But as the weeks have passed, it has become clear that the IHME’s projections have been too optimistic, and slow to adjust to reflect the fact that deaths have plateaued rather than rapidly decreasing to zero. The IHME has been regularly updating its model as new data comes in, but the updates have often been slow enough that the numbers are absurd by the time they’re changed in an update. For example, in late April the model still stated the expected total death toll was 60,000, even as the US was clearly only a few days from that milestone.

IMO the main reason IHME projections were low before they tweaked it is because social distancing measures, masks are ineffective in reducing R0 below 1 when a large percentage of the population is already infected.

https://www.covid-projections.com/

 

That IHME has the worst projections. Everyone (even the lefties) who understand classic pandemic models thinks it's horrible.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/5/2/21241261/coronavirus-modeling-us-deaths-ihme-pandemic


IMO the main reason IHME projections were low before they tweaked it is because social distancing measures, masks are ineffective in reducing R0 below 1 when a large percentage of the population is already infected.

https://www.covid-projections.com/

I'm sticking with my number of 93,000 by the end of the month.
I base it on this curve and 12 days from testing positive until death.

 

I'm sticking with my number of 93,000 by the end of the month.
I base it on this curve and 12 days from testing positive until death.
View attachment 206189

Let's hope the trend in Sweden continues. The daily death rate and COVID-19 case increases are dropping. Unfortunately, "flatten the curve" has morphed into "stop the virus", which is unattainable and has no realistic exit strategy other than wait to next year at the absolute earliest for a vaccine.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

 

A interesting Model claim.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.07208.pdf

We demonstrated that the approximation leading to differential equation based models of epidemic spread is not sufficient in the case of the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, differential equations provide a good description only if R0 is close to 1 and if it changes only slowly compared to the incubation period of the disease. Note that even if R0 is larger than 1, the initial exponential phase of the epidemic can be well described by differential equations, but they can significantly underestimate the value of R0, the larger the R0, the more so. If, however, as a result of restrictive measures, R0 suddenly drops, differential equations fail to describe the ensuing oscillatory behaviour of the number of new cases and as a result, they are not suitable for a precise monitoring of R0. In contrast, integral equations are naturally suited to this task, even if sharp changes occur in R0. We also presented a simple way to implement the integral equation formalism in numerical simulations, which do not become more complicated than the numerical solution of the SEIR equations. In summary, the integral equation approach has more predictive power than the most widely used differential equation based models and also eliminates a serious uncontrolled approximation of the latter. In the light of the present results we urge practitioners of the field to rethink and possibly consider implementing the integral equation based technique.

 

Quarantine Day 35

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/politics/coronavirus-intelligence/index.html

"We think it's highly unlikely it was an accident," a Western diplomatic official with knowledge of the intelligence said. "It is highly likely it was naturally occurring and that the human infection was from natural human and animal interaction." The countries in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing coalition are coalescing around this assessment, the official said, and a second official, from a Five Eyes country, concurred with it. The US has yet to make a formal assessment public.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes