Last night on the news the legislature is going to change the tax structure on fuel now. All the resent drops made them think there enough to move some decimal points.

Just burns my tail. When it goes up and you know it will; they won't remove it or re-adjust it accordingly.

kv

 

Last night on the news the legislature is going to change the tax structure on fuel now. All the resent drops made them think there enough to move some decimal points.

Just burns my tail. When it goes up and you know it will; they won't remove it or re-adjust it accordingly.

kv

That's what governments do.

Price update: Today saw $1.599/gal (no discount or club card or any other gimmick needed).

I now fully expect to see it drop below $1.50/gal.

I'm still on the fence about $1/gal. I would not be surprised to see it fall below that mark (if not now then at some point in the future) but would also not be surprised if it never did.

I don't know if the trend can continue into the $1.25/gal range -- apparently some of the high-cost producers are beginning to cut back on production (which HAS to happen as prices move down) -- so it will just be a matter of where the supply glut takes us. What will be particularly interesting to see is whether the price will stay near its low for any length of time or whether it will be a quick bounce (which is the more normal situation).

 

This seems to make sense - at least the cost stuff.
http://oil-price.net/en/articles/falling-oil-price-slows-us-fracking.php

 

Loving it while it lasts.

 

Just got back from the vacation. Had a great time but now I have a new driver in the family.

 

Glad you had a good time.

Sometimes I wish those rails where on real roads!

 

https://blog.gasbuddy.com/posts/GasBuddy-1-99-national-average-coming/1715-598062-2851.aspx

The lowest I saw in Fl was $1.94 with prices now in Oregon at $2.09 near the house.

 

Glad you had a good time.

Sometimes I wish those rails where on real roads!

What's seen on the roads there is pretty frightening.

 

One last pic from the Orlando to Key West Fl road trip.
What do you do at this point?

Park the car, have a few drinks and let someone else drive.

 

I just filled up for $22. It was $1.729 at Murphy Oil.

 

The prices around here seem to be up a bit. I got gas yesterday at Sam's Club for $1.629/gal which may or may not be up from them. But several of the stations that were at $1.699/gal a couple days ago were at $1.749/gal today. Don't know if it's signaling the end or if it's just a transient uptick.

 

I read the price is up on news of the death of the Saudi king.

 

I read the price is up on news of the death of the Saudi king.

If that's the case, then I'm guessing it will be transient. Unless there's a real chance that the change in leadership is going to make a real change in policy, but I don't know how likely that is given that they would have to significantly cut their production and that, coupled with the current low prices, could seriously threaten their economy. Many of those countries are in a Catch-22 right now.

Of course, there's always the "correlation is causation" mentality of the news. Every time the market for anything makes a move the news always ties it in as a response to this or that. But what's interesting is that many events are repetitive and they'll get blamed this time for the market being up when last time they happened they were blamed for the market being down.

 

Some news outlets have that mentality and some don't. I tend to ignore those who do.

 

Some news outlets have that mentality and some don't. I tend to ignore those who do.

Yet you didn't ignore the one you cited, namely that gas prices were up due to news of the death of the Saudi king. Did the news report you read give details on why there is a cause/effect relationship between these two events? Gas prices are always volatile with swings at local gas stations often occurring within the course of a day, so just because a king dies and prices go up does not imply a cause-effect relationship.

If prices had gone down that news report almost certainly would have said that prices are down on news of the death of the Saudi king. And people can make all kinds of reasonable, plausible explanations for why they went up, or why they went down, none of which establish a cause-effect relationship. Do determine that you need to be able to identify the chain of events that lead from one to the other.

 

Try reading my post. I said I ignored news outlets who have the stated mentality. I didn't say I ignored all news outlets. Thus, if I relate a story from the news, it would come from an outlet that doesn't exhibit that mentality.

 

Try reading my post. I said I ignored news outlets who have the stated mentality. I didn't say I ignored all news outlets. Your post assumes something about the news I read. Not good to make such assumptions.

You're right. I assumed that you did not ignore the news outlet about which you said, "I read the price is up on news of the death of the Saudi king."

Having made the grievous assumption that you didn't ignore a news outlet that you got some piece of information from, I then compounded my error by asking if this news outlet gave any indication to support the cause-effect implication of the piece of news that you didn't get from them. If they had, then it would have been interesting to hear it.

 

You can believe anything you want to, as far as I'm concerned. I don't really care one way of the other. I only said I read something to pass along some intelligence I was acquired to those who may not have see it. But I don't care if anyone believes it or not. That said, here is a sample of what I've been reading http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-...audi-media-reports-king-abdullah-s-death.html I think the article has some pretty valid sources, you may not but then again, it doesn't matter to me if you do or if you don't.

One thing I do know for sure, domestic production will be ramping down. Oilfield services have cut employment by thousands and Capex spending is down ~20%. I've not only read about this in the news, but I also have friends in the oil industry in Texas, some of whom I've know for over 40 years, and they are giving me numbers much like these. This is IN MY OPINION potentially more important to future price, but who really knows. There are many, many more factors which can be considered more important. The only real conclusion I can make is that the news I've been reading concerning how low prices will cause a decline in domestic activity was absolutely borne out by recent events. But it only made sense, so this bit of validation wasn't really necessary for my outlook.

 

Thank you for linking the story. While interesting, it really didn't make a good argument for a cause-effect relationship (and note that I'm not saying that there wasn't one). Read the article again but this time assume that prices had dropped and make the minor adjustments to the article that would have resulted. The article could have been left almost completely as it is, blaming the fall on the increase in volatility due to the announcement and given the new king's previous support of the prior king's policies.

 

Well, no single article will ever be able to cover every single aspect of futures trading. One can always made assumptions for vast tracts of information that can't possibly be covered. But I thought the case was well thought out and well stated. I also read it in context of how I've seen oil futures trading happen in the past.