Years ago I thought part of the self-driving solution would involve infrastructure: Special lane paints, transmitters along the highway to give vehicles important information, on and on. The obvious problem with anything that relies on infrastructure is all the roads that will NEVER be upgraded. You might be able to connect some important freight routes for self-driving trucks, but you'll never blanket all the places people travel. And so the modern solution requires an advanced AI in the vehicle, to execute the same way, or better than, a human driver. That's really hard, but it looks like it'll be the winning strategy.

 

A bit of semantics correction in the name of accuracy, here.
There are NO self driving vehicles, EVERY ONE of them is computer driven. Certainly we know that, but it seems that nobody likes to say it. And every one of those driving computers has a huge program running to sort of simulate a human driver. And not a single one of them is programmed to handle exceptions, those instances that most humans can deal with, that happen only once every few years.
On top of that, how well have the several million lines of code been debugged?? Consider that most of the proposals include a scheme for automated program updates, because it is understood that there will certainly be bugs in the code that appear. And every one of the bugs will be a safety issue with some level of importance.
(Probably this topic would provoke additional discussion)

 

There are plenty of driverless vehicles in use already. They have limited routes of course. Not sure what your point is.

And a computer-driven vehicle doesn’t have to be perfect, it just needs to be better than the average human, including drunks. That milestone is not so far off and the insurance companies will dictate what happens afterwards. Will human drivers be able to afford the liability risk?

 

There are plenty of driverless vehicles in use already. They have limited routes of course. Not sure what your point is.

And a computer-driven vehicle doesn’t have to be perfect, it just needs to be better than the average human, including drunks. That milestone is not so far off and the insurance companies will dictate what happens afterwards. Will human drivers be able to afford the liability risk?

Wrong answer!!!! Given the added cost for adding computer driving, the performance needs to be a lot better than most drivers, which includes the vast majority who never have accidents at all. Why in the world should I have to pay for a safety add-on that is not as good a driver as I am, just to have a system that will more than double the price of any service to my car and not provide me with any real benefit, especially since I like to drive??
The only way computer driven cars will ever become universal is by changes in the laws that make them mandatory for all. And since they provide no benefit whatsoever toward the safety of most drivers, there is no way most people will want them.
Just consider the additional service that will be needed to assure that all of those sensors stay in perfect operating condition. No current master mechanic is qualified to do that. Then consider the problems that will develop when a few of the vehicles develop software problems. A computer crash at home is an inconvenience, an automotive crash caused by a computer glitch may be fatal. Would you let your windows based computer drive your car??? I don't think so.

 

Wrong answer!!!! Given the added cost for adding computer driving, the performance needs to be a lot better than most drivers, which includes the vast majority who never have accidents at all. Why in the world should I have to pay for a safety add-on that is not as good a driver as I am, just to have a system that will more than double the price of any service to my car and not provide me with any real benefit, especially since I like to drive??
The only way computer driven cars will ever become universal is by changes in the laws that make them mandatory for all. And since they provide no benefit whatsoever toward the safety of most drivers, there is no way most people will want them.
Just consider the additional service that will be needed to assure that all of those sensors stay in perfect operating condition. No current master mechanic is qualified to do that. Then consider the problems that will develop when a few of the vehicles develop software problems. A computer crash at home is an inconvenience, an automotive crash caused by a computer glitch may be fatal. Would you let your windows based computer drive your car??? I don't think so.

It’s not up to you. Once the self-driving cars beat the average driver, insurance companies will charge you extra if you choose to drive yourself instead, if they even allow it at all. Picture yourself on the witness stand in a courtroom, explaining why you had the incredible hubris to think you were better than the computer. You took control and someone died. You are so fucked.

 

It’s not up to you. Once the self-driving cars beat the average driver, insurance companies will charge you extra if you choose to drive yourself instead, if they even allow it at all. Picture yourself on the witness stand in a courtroom, explaining why you had the incredible hubris to think you were better than the computer. You took control and someone died. You are so fucked.

I don’t have to worry about it. That’ll never happen in my lifetime, my kids lifetimes, nor my grandchildren’s

 

Most people are already "smarter" than most computers, at least when it comes to driving. That stupid computer is not able to handle any situation it has not been programmed to handle, nor does it have the options available to handle them. and it should be perfectly clear that it is not likely to change. The stupid computer that drove over that woman on a bike did not understand that it would be smart to allow extra clearance because she was next to it's lane. And there is no way that the auto companies will ever be able to afford the cost of a proper software evaluation.
So until computer driving software is bug-free enough to not need patches and fixes, there is no way it should be allowed to drive cars.
Once again, would YOU want a car that had to have safety critical recalls every week??? I doubt it.
And there is no way that ten million lines of bug free code will happen in the time available for a car system design and build.

 

And every one of those driving computers has a huge program running to sort of simulate a human driver.

The problem is that they don’t simulate a human driver at all. They don’t use the information the human has and they rely on information the human does not have. I would go as far as to say they are not performing the same task.

 

Every bit of data used by the driving computer comes from sensors, which in general, while having greater distance ability, are devoid of the ability to understand what they detect. That is not likely to change. In addition, most of those sensors need routine cleaning to maintain performance. And every one of them is subject to failure and damage. So while the super sensor can see what it is looking for, it will not notice what else it should see. The sensors will not see anything except what they are programmed to see, that is how it works. That is the flaw on the input side of the system. On the output side, the computer will never be able to make choices that it has not been programmed to make, nor to take actions that it lacks the I/O connections to take action. Is the driving computer even able to sound the horn to warn a pedestrian?? Probably not. Twice I have avoided hitting fools running blindly by sounding my horn so that they knew to stop. The driving computer is not able to do that, nor would it understand that was the action to take.
The driving computer will only, ever, be able to handle only what it has been programmed to handle, and only with the ability is has the I/O to use. Much less than humans, but often faster.

 

In addition, most of those sensors need routine cleaning to maintain performance.

Almost every modern vehicle has at least one camera and 3 or more radar units. They don't need cleaning. What sensors do you have in mind?

 

Almost every modern vehicle has at least one camera and 3 or more radar units. They don't need cleaning. What sensors do you have in mind?

What do you mean they don’t need cleaning? They are on road vehicles and whose every surface collects layers of dirt, oil, tar and other crap which obstructs the sensing surfaces. Ever try to use your car’s backup camera after a rainstorm? You can see lots of objects that aren’t really there. But your mind filters these artifacts out because it knows they aren’t real.

 

Elon Musk himself has said that, ultimately, binocular vision should be used, but that, apparently is not ready for prime time yet.

It is astounding to me that current self driving cars cannot distinguish an overhead road sign from stopped truck.

 

They are on road vehicles and whose every surface collects layers of dirt, oil, tar and other crap which obstructs the sensing surfaces.

You might be confusing radar units with the Hubble telescope mirror. The radar units are behind body panels. They have no problem seeing through body panels. Some microscopic particles sticking to paint over decades certainly has no effect.

 

I have a rear view camera on my Caravan and it certainly needs to be cleaned quite often. And the outside mirrors also need cleaning frequently. Perhaps the driver who does not clean theirs is so blind that they can't see the difference. Or never uses them.
My experience is that every part on the outside of the car needs cleaning occasionally, some parts much more than other parts.