Thought for the day...

WBahn

Joined Mar 31, 2012
32,878
Two points come to mind.

First, @14:00, he talks about how information that is presented with high confidence is more likely to be accepted and followed, independent of whether the information is correct.

This is exactly the point that I make all the time about the biggest issue with ChatGPT and other LLMs -- people are naturally inclined to accept results that are firmly stated as facts, even when they are glaringly wrong.

Second, the video only talks about the "advantages" of overconfidence in terms of the ability to influence others. But I think that it is far more central to our success as a species. As a species, humans are risk takers and many of the advances that have allowed us to dominate our surroundings are largely the results of people being willing to take extreme risks, whether physical or economic.

Consider that humans are possibly one of the most ill-suited species on the planet to actually surviving in the wild. We can't tolerate conditions outside of a very narrow temperature range, we aren't particularly fast, strong, or agile compared to other animals. We lack the ability to dig in the ground effectively, and even if we were to accept the role of carrion eaters, our physical ability to tear apart a carcass isn't very great, and that's assuming we could successfully compete with other carrion eaters to get access to it in the first place. Raw intelligence only gets you so far. We might figure out how to craft simple tools to dig roots or trap small animals. But going much beyond that requires being willing to take risks in order to test and refine the tools and techniques that allowed us to challenge other animals that were far better equipped naturally, and those tests involved people stepping up and being willing to try those tools and techniques by challenging those animals -- and probably losing a lot of those challenges while the survivors observed and learned and proceeded to make adjustments before stepping up and making their own challenge, confident that they had figured out how not to get killed like the last guy got.
 

cmartinez

Joined Jan 17, 2007
8,768
Two points come to mind.

First, @14:00, he talks about how information that is presented with high confidence is more likely to be accepted and followed, independent of whether the information is correct.

This is exactly the point that I make all the time about the biggest issue with ChatGPT and other LLMs -- people are naturally inclined to accept results that are firmly stated as facts, even when they are glaringly wrong.

Second, the video only talks about the "advantages" of overconfidence in terms of the ability to influence others. But I think that it is far more central to our success as a species. As a species, humans are risk takers and many of the advances that have allowed us to dominate our surroundings are largely the results of people being willing to take extreme risks, whether physical or economic.

Consider that humans are possibly one of the most ill-suited species on the planet to actually surviving in the wild. We can't tolerate conditions outside of a very narrow temperature range, we aren't particularly fast, strong, or agile compared to other animals. We lack the ability to dig in the ground effectively, and even if we were to accept the role of carrion eaters, our physical ability to tear apart a carcass isn't very great, and that's assuming we could successfully compete with other carrion eaters to get access to it in the first place. Raw intelligence only gets you so far. We might figure out how to craft simple tools to dig roots or trap small animals. But going much beyond that requires being willing to take risks in order to test and refine the tools and techniques that allowed us to challenge other animals that were far better equipped naturally, and those tests involved people stepping up and being willing to try those tools and techniques by challenging those animals -- and probably losing a lot of those challenges while the survivors observed and learned and proceeded to make adjustments before stepping up and making their own challenge, confident that they had figured out how not to get killed like the last guy got.
1763082159447.png
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
16,330
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/13/wha...ing-the-ieas-shift-on-fossil-fuel-demand.html
  • In a sharp shift in tone, the latest outlook from the world’s top energy agency signals that oil demand could keep growing through to 2050.
  • The International Energy Agency had previously estimated a peak in global fossil fuel demand by 2030 and said there should be an end to new investments in coal, oil and gas projects to reach net zero emissions by the middle of the century.
  • OPEC welcomed what it described as the IEA’s “rendezvous with reality.”
 

cmartinez

Joined Jan 17, 2007
8,768
At age 11, Andrew Pelham invented the E-Z Baby Saver: a cord linking the driver’s door to the back seat so you’re reminded to look back before exiting the car. He crafted it using rubber bands and duct tape for a contest, hoping to prevent tragic child deaths in hot cars.


1763651873483.png
 

WBahn

Joined Mar 31, 2012
32,878
At age 11, Andrew Pelham invented the E-Z Baby Saver: a cord linking the driver’s door to the back seat so you’re reminded to look back before exiting the car. He crafted it using rubber bands and duct tape for a contest, hoping to prevent tragic child deaths in hot cars.


And how many people will bother to attach that cord to the door after the third or fourth time?
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
16,330

The Homeless Industrial Complex.

One "non-profit" who gives the homeless free tents, tarps and provisions, another "non-profit" who clears all the encampments of said tents, tarps and trash.

Repeat...
 

cmartinez

Joined Jan 17, 2007
8,768
When the Golden Gate Bridge was built in the 1930s, Chief Engineer Joseph Strauss insisted on spending $130,000 on a massive safety net beneath the work site. It was one of the first large scale safety measures of its kind and ended up saving 19 men who fell, each of whom joined what became known as the Halfway to Hell Club. Though 11 workers still lost their lives, the net marked a turning point in construction safety and showed that protecting workers could be prioritized even on the toughest projects.


1763865871460.png
 
I think it's a pretty well-established and widely known fact that the food served at the first thanksgiving was mostly if not all native to the Americas.

But I'm betting the booze was European. :p
 

WBahn

Joined Mar 31, 2012
32,878
The true story of the Thanksgiving menu:

https://youtube.com/shorts/3B6xGrQiVlU
The answer to his question of whether we ever learned in school that corn was native to the Americas is yes. It was also emphasized that the first Thanksgiving was a thank you by the pilgrims to the Indians (that's what they were called back then) for teaching them how to grow native crops successfully after the colony was almost wiped out because the crop seeds brought from Europe failed to yield.

The video strikes me as setting up a strawman argument to push a political agenda much more than trying to actually provide meaningful information for the purpose of education.
 
Top