It is still unclear as to whether 4 or 6 boys have exited from the cave.

 

Most of the reports I've seen have said four. It's not surprising that there's discrepancies. We'll have to wait for official word to come out.

 

Just read that the Thai officials have corrected reports saying 6 and that it is just 4 so far.

Also confirmed that the delay in continuing is to refill tanks. This surprises me. Given the number of divers and the amount of time that they've had to put this in place, I would have thought that they would be overflowing in equipment and supplies, in particular more than sufficient tanks be able to run the rescue operation at the shortest intervals possible. It would be interesting to discover why this is the bottleneck.

 

Just read that the Thai officials have corrected reports saying 6 and that it is just 4 so far.

Also confirmed that the delay in continuing is to refill tanks. This surprises me. Given the number of divers and the amount of time that they've had to put this in place, I would have thought that they would be overflowing in equipment and supplies, in particular more than sufficient tanks be able to run the rescue operation at the shortest intervals possible. It would be interesting to discover why this is the bottleneck.

Yeah, given the distance, I was assuming they would leave multiple stockpiles of tanks that could be switched out relatively quickly.

Do we know what happened to the SEAL that ran out of air? That shouldn't happen unless an unforeseen snag delayed him.

 

Yeah, given the distance, I was assuming they would leave multiple stockpiles of tanks that could be switched out relatively quickly.

Some of that depends on whether there are places along the route large enough to leave sufficient tanks and also whether there are enough places large enough to permit two-way traffic. Then there's the question of what kind of communications are in place in order to coordinate movement along the route.

But the current stories (always suspect) state that the delay is to refill the tanks. That doesn't make a lot of sense. If it's to reposition filled tanks within the cave, that's a lot more understandable.

Do we know what happened to the SEAL that ran out of air? That shouldn't happen unless an unforeseen snag delayed him.

I haven't seen anything that indicated an unforseen problem. I can see a number of possibilities. I doubt that the route is a clear-cut only-one-way-to-go-route. It's possible he got off track and wasted valuable air getting oriented again. That happens even with permanent guide lines in established caves. It's also possible that, despite his overall experience in diving, that cave rescue diving might have been relatively new to him. That alone might have resulted in him using more air than he normally does. Adding the mission-focus involved, he may have simply become task saturated and not realized that he didn't have enough air on that final stretch. The tight confines might have also resulted in him diving without a pony bottle or other reserve.

Also, while early reports stated that the entire route was underwater, I don't know if that was actually true initially and that the draining operations have made it so that now it is a handful of stretches within the cave that must be made underwater, or if it was always a combination of wet and dry segments. One graphic indicated that one segment currently requires diving to 30 meters, which is the next best thing to 100 ft. If it was flooded well above that when the SEAL died he might have been significantly deeper that. That's in the range of being susceptible to nitrogen narcosis if diving on straight air and it's possible that they are using enriched air to increase diving time, which decreases the depth at which oxygen toxicity occurs. He probably had a good feel for his personal limits in these regards, but the stress of cave diving, of rescue diving, and of multiple dives may have all combined to increase his vulnerability more than he allowed for.

Hopefully we will get more information as time goes by, but there may always be critical aspects that will simply be unknowable.

 

I would imagine that this is not a simple problem. In your typical resupply scenario, you have to take three tanks, one tank to get there, one tank to leave and a third to return.

There are still unanswered questions as to how an experienced diver got into trouble. One would be constantly concerned in one's air supply and there should have been no reason for him to return with critically low supply.

I would have thought that the strategy would be to bring the boys out two at a time, for moral support. Then you have to wait for confirmation that they made it safely before sending the next group.

Again air supply would be critical because one diver has to carry the supply for himself and his charge.

 

Since part of the route requires climbing gear, I'm assuming that this is NOT the route that they used to get into the cave. I wonder why they can't use that same route? I'm sure there's a good reason. Perhaps the water depth at some point is too much to risk or the total time under water would be too much.

Requires? You need to meet more 12-year-old boys.

 

I would imagine that this is not a simple problem. In your typical resupply scenario, you have to take three tanks, one tank to get there, one tank to leave and a third to return.

There are still unanswered questions as to how an experienced diver got into trouble. One would be constantly concerned in one's air supply and there should have been no reason for him to return with critically low supply.

I would have thought that the strategy would be to bring the boys out two at a time, for moral support. Then you have to wait for confirmation that they made it safely before sending the next group.

Again air supply would be critical because one diver has to carry the supply for himself and his charge.

The resupply tactics depend heavily on how much air each one-way trip requires, which is something I haven't seen any information on, unfortunately. There are also a variety of ways to do things, such as using a relay (bucket brigade) approach. They've had enough time since finding them to stage lots of tanks at the key points, provided there is sufficient space at those points to do so.

The people planning this operation are certainly very well qualified to do so and they know the particulars of the actual situation far, far better than any of us. So I'm certainly not trying to second-guess them at all -- I'm more than willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that their approach is reasonable. It's just a matter of trying to better understand the decisions they are making which, for the most part, means trying to figure out the relevant factors that are at play. I have little doubt that, in the months and years to come, there will be several books that will be written that will go into sufficient depth based on all the information that is going to eventually be available.

There should be no reason for experienced instrument pilots to get disoriented and enter graveyard spirals, but it happens. There should be no reason for entire cockpit crews to get so focused on why a landing gear light isn't lit that the airliner crashes into the Everglades, either, but it happened. People get task-saturated and stop checking the fundamentals. It shouldn't happen, but it does.

I don't think the moral support issue is a factor, compared to the increased risk associated with bringing out two at a time (in close company). If one boy gets in trouble or needs to be settled down, the divers can focus on him without having to worry about its effect on the other boy that now has to pause and wait while his friend struggles -- not the best source of moral support out there.

Given the visibility, one boy is unlikely to see the other boy anyway. Having two experienced divers shepherding one boy should provide as much reassurance as possible.

 

Not to worry: Elon Musk is sending engineers to help...but the footballers are all out of the cave and out of immediate danger while receiving care at a hospital at the moment.

How are those child-size submarines coming along, Elon?

 

Thank you,Dick. That news has not hit the US mainland yet.
John

 

... the footballers are all out of the cave and out of immediate danger ...

Wow, that's great and surprising news. Hadn't heard it yet.

 

Not to worry: Elon Musk is sending engineers to help...but the footballers are all out of the cave and out of immediate danger while receiving care at a hospital at the moment.

How are those child-size submarines coming along, Elon?

I just checked as best I could and can't find anything, even things that claim to be less than 30 minutes old, that say anything other than four of boys out so far.

Do you have a link to anything local that says that they are all out?

Great news!

 

I just checked as best I could and can't find anything, even things that claim to be less than 30 minutes old, that say anything other than four of boys out so far.

Do you have a link to anything local that says that they are all out?

Great news!

I'm fearful that Dick merely misspoke.

 

But the current stories (always suspect) state that the delay is to refill the tanks. That doesn't make a lot of sense. If it's to reposition filled tanks within the cave, that's a lot more understandable.

I've just read a pretty detailed report in the NY Times that does, indeed, state that the turnaround time is because of the need to reposition new tanks and other supplies (didn't specify on that; I'm guessing probably lights, maybe drinking water and food) along the route. It also says that they are still trying to get a comm line the last 1700 meters, so it sounds like they have comms about halfway into the cave. That certainly helps, but until they get comms all the way in they are going to have to be ultra conservative with their movement orders.

 

I suspect that the kids were given an anti anxiety medication to make them less susceptible to panic.

 

I suspect that the kids were given an anti anxiety medication to make them less susceptible to panic.

Possible, I suppose. But the advantages would have to be carefully weighed against any possible side-effects under pressure. Generally speaking, diving on any kind of medication, even common over-the-counter stuff, is discouraged without careful consideration.

 

Reference:
https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/...e/news-story/4e28d1c5864029c9132ef1bb2eff9f8b

 

Reference:
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/w...t/news-story/e98f360f471f437d91375d8351060fa8

 

@cmartinez : Are you sure that constantly changing the thread title is a good idea? Remember, this is not a news blog, but rather an archival forum. Consider the people that will come across this thread in the future. Most people expect the first post to be related to the thread title (and vice versa).

 

The rescue mission is expected to be concluded by the end of today local time.