Peak Oil

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joeyd999

Joined Jun 6, 2011
6,282
Not sure I believe this entirely but it is interesting.

Whatever.

In the US, only 27% of energy is consumed by all forms of transportation, increasing to about 30% worldwide. A few e-bikes aren't going to make much of a difference.

And energy demand going forward is going to be driven mainly by IT (AI, crypto, etc.). It's going to need lots and lots of oil as Icelandic geothermal is currently out of the picture.
 

wayneh

Joined Sep 9, 2010
18,104
A poll.
Who believes we're at peek oil ?
Do we be Belive carbon fuel consumption will go up , stay say or go down over next 20 years ?
Up.

I might believe peak oil happens within the next 20 years, but I predict we'll be using more oil than today in 20 years from today.

That's oil. You said carbon and that includes coal. I'm optimistic coal will go down, maybe a lot. I guess I'm saying peak oil will happen, if at all, long after peak coal.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
16,325
Unexpected Methane Surge: Clean Air Policies Could Be Backfiring

Why are unintended consequences always unexpected by supposedly brilliant minds?

They are always the first thing I expect when changing something.
Unexpected by who? The effect of removing sulphur and hydrocarbon generated pollution (“atmospheric particulate) from the air being a factor in global temperatures has been known for decades.

The source paper has very little that's not obvious and reinforced what's already known. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adn1056

News | December 7, 2009
Just 5 questions: Aerosols
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/215/just-5-questions-aerosols/

Is there a link between aerosols and climate change?
Yes. Aerosols have a profound impact on the climate because, just like greenhouse gases, they are able to change the Earth’s “radiative”, or energy, balance. Aerosols can control how much energy from the sun reaches the planet’s surface by changing the amount that is absorbed in the atmosphere and the amount that is scattered back out to space. It turns out that most aerosols are cooling — that is to say, they reflect the sun’s energy back out into space. There is only one aerosol — soot, also known as black carbon — that actually helps contribute to global warming by boosting the warming effects of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Since the Industrial Revolution, humans have pumped more and more aerosols into the air, and this in turn has actually counteracted global warming to a significant degree. Using climate models, we estimate that aerosols have masked about 50 percent of the warming that would otherwise have been caused by greenhouse gases trapping heat near the surface of the Earth. Without the presence of these aerosols in the air, our models suggest that the planet would be about 1 °C (1.8 °F) hotter.
 
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