I truly hope that'll be the case ...

Me too. I'm not looking forward to the new insurance premiums next year.

 

It's just a number.

And it'll be a cat 2 by landfall.

I really hope so.

There's nothing much but warm water in the current path (with warm water off-shore from Tampa) so hope for dry air and wind shear to spin this monster down.


Here's how fast Milton has been strengthening all day Monday:

• 7 a.m., 120-mph winds.
• 8 a.m., 125-mph winds
• 9:05 a.m.: 150-mph winds
• 11 a.m.: 155-mph winds
• 12 p.m.: 160-mph winds
• 2 p.m.: 175-mph winds
• 5 p.m.: 180-mph winds

https://www.heraldtribune.com/story...mpacts-watches-warnings-landfall/75547053007/

 

Milton is intensifying to a sub-900mb monster, maintaining around 900 mb with gusts to 225 MPH The experts don't expect this to last but it's amazingly strong.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/072354.shtml

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 90.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...897 MB...26.49 INCHES

That's really bad if the eyewall replacement cycle respins back up just before landfall.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/here-is-what-eyewall-replacement-means

We've seen this before on strong asian pacific storms on the upper end of the scale. They seem to fall apart, then reassemble just as strong but larger. We worked on the early ships GOES stacom download systems for WEFAX weather images that received the forecasts while underway.

https://theeyewall.com/historic-hur...ng-significant-dangerous-impacts-for-florida/

Here’s the rub. Let’s say Milton undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). I won’t get into the weeds, but that’s essentially where a hurricane sort of internally pauses, takes a breath, and resets itself. When it does this, it usually comes back larger in size but a bit weaker in intensity. Right now, tropical storm force winds extend out only 80 miles from the center. Compare this to the over 300 miles Helene’s winds were from the center. Hurricane-force winds extend out 30 miles, and those 180 mph winds? They’re in an extremely small pocket in the eyewall. So let’s say Milton undergoes an ERC tonight. Tomorrow, it may be a high-end cat 4 or still a cat 5, but it will be larger in size. A larger storm can move more water. Let’s say it happens again. Milton maybe becomes a cat 3 or lower-end cat 4, but now it’s doubled in size from today. That means that while the winds won’t be as extreme, they’ll cover a wider area. And the surge? Well, it will punch above its weight class and even if Milton is a 2 or a 3 at landfall, this massive storm surge we’ve been screaming about will still come to fruition, akin to more like a category 4 storm.

 

 

Lt. Dan needs to get the hell off that boat.

 

​

 

Lt. Dan needs to get the hell off that boat.

For those youngsters not in the know:

 

For those youngsters not in the know:

Lt. Dan, "Where's your God now?" Forrest, "It's funny Lt. Dan said that, because God chose that moment to show up."

 

​

 

GOES-19 images. GOES-19 Preliminary, Non-Operational Data
https://www.goes-r.gov/spacesegment/abi.html

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate...s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

 

 

A real oasis.

https://apnews.com/article/sahara-flooding-oasis-rain-morocco-2b6c28d2487a0ef370aff60775d0245d
Water gushes through sand dunes after a rare rainfall in the Sahara desert

 

Crap, it's not spinning down quickly as it nears the coast. This storm looks much like the super typoons we would see and try to avoid in the western Pacific.
https://www.wired.com/story/why-super-typhoons-like-yagi-are-more-common-than-youd-think/

A map of all 202 Category 5-equivalent super typhoons in the western Pacific between 1945 and 2022.Courtesy of NOAA

I hope this is not the new normal for Florida.

 

I hope this is not the new normal for Florida.

Please stop this nonsense. Hurricanes -- even historically strong ones -- are endemic to Florida.

"The strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall on the state was the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, which crossed the Florida Keys with a pressure of 892 mbar (hPa; 26.35 inHg); it is also the strongest hurricane on record to strike the United States. Out of the ten most intense landfalling United States hurricanes, four struck Florida at peak strength."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Florida_hurricanes

 

It is beyond my comprehension why you would call this nonsense.
There is flooding in the Sahara desert. Let’s face reality. This is the new norm.

 

It is beyond my comprehension why you would call this nonsense.
There is flooding in the Sahara desert. Let’s face reality. This is the new norm.

It's called weather, and it happens everyday somewhere.

If conditions are so different today, why did the strongest hurricane to ever hit the US occur nearly 100 years ago?

 

It's called weather, and it happens everyday somewhere.

If conditions are so different today, why did the strongest hurricane to ever hit the US occur nearly 100 years ago?

That is a non sequitur. What happened 100 years ago is no prediction of what will happen today or tomorrow.

 

That is a non sequitur. What happened 100 years ago is no prediction of what will happen today or tomorrow.

Exactly!

And anything a computer says today will not predict weather 100 years from now.

CAGW exists because there is money in it. Lots of money -- it is one of the biggest businesses on planet Earth right now.

If there was money in global cooling, we'd have that, instead.

Understand that, regardless of the fact or fallacy of CAGW, there is only one possible solution: mass sacrifice of human lives to the weather god, just like in the old days.

The sacrifices have already begun.

 

My old haunting grounds...

 

Please stop this nonsense. Hurricanes -- even historically strong ones -- are endemic to Florida.

"The strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall on the state was the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, which crossed the Florida Keys with a pressure of 892 mbar (hPa; 26.35 inHg); it is also the strongest hurricane on record to strike the United States. Out of the ten most intense landfalling United States hurricanes, four struck Florida at peak strength."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Florida_hurricanes

I'd be glad if it's nonsense but as you say, I make my own judgments from the evidence (look at the avatar, I've lived, worked and watched Florida weather too). It's the sort of rapid intensification cycle to max energy I'm mainly talking about where a 'normal' hurricane becomes a monster in 24 hours and stays a monster.
This storm is off the rails for rapid intensification. There's some chance (I hope not so it can spin down like most normally do) Milton with have another eye wall replacement before landfall.

https://www.weather.gov/mob/tropical_definitions

Rapid Intensification
An increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots in a 24 hour period.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-43290-9
Recent global increase in multiple rapid intensification of tropical cyclones

Take care and be safe. Wind shear and dry air are your friends.