Wow, 4 years later and the economy is still growing.

 

I guess the folks who are supposed to be wrecking things are not trying very hard.

 

I'd say they're incredibly effective.

Here's a BLS plot of labor force participation during my adult life (from when I started working after college, until now). It captures very well the general state of things as viewed from people on the ground. Things are "good" when the line goes up, and not so good as it drops.

When people my age talk about "the good old days", it's about the left-hand side of this plot.

This thread was begun in the beginning of 2012. The economy had already crashed at that point, and I suppose strantor was wondering where the bottom was. How much worse would it get?

Here we are almost 4 years later. Has it "crashed" in that time? Perhaps not relative to its already-depressed level, but it certainly didn't get better either. The joyride of quantitive easing may end as early as next month. Mandated government spending on entitlements and our massive debt are projected to increase as a percentage of GDP, while investment in R&D and infrastructure for the future will be necessarily squeezed.

I guess I just argued for the "gradual death" option. Heavy sigh.

 

We certainly have not returned to the economic pain of 2008-2009, or 2001, or 1992, or 1987, or 1982, or 1970 despite numerous predictions of impending doom. That's six of 'em that have failed to keep me down. Can't speak for others.

 

We certainly have not returned to the economic pain of 2008-2009, or 2001, or 1992, or 1987, or 1982, or 1970 despite numerous predictions of impending doom. That's six of 'em that have failed to keep me down. Can't speak for others.

Be thankful for that. The situation is slowly improving, and the economy is gaining strength. My personal economy has taken a giant leap forward, and I'm riding that wave for as long as I can.

Here are the GDP growth numbers since the last bust:

2.5% in 2010, 1.6% in 2011, 2.3% in 2012, 2.2% in 2013, and 2.4% in 2014, 2.2 in 2015 (so far)

Not as strong as in our best times, but solid.

 

I'd say they're incredibly effective.

Here's a BLS plot of labor force participation during my adult life (from when I started working after college, until now). It captures very well the general state of things as viewed from people on the ground. Things are "good" when the line goes up, and not so good as it drops.

When people my age talk about "the good old days", it's about the left-hand side of this plot.
View attachment 94938
This thread was begun in the beginning of 2012. The economy had already crashed at that point, and I suppose strantor was wondering where the bottom was. How much worse would it get?

Here we are almost 4 years later. Has it "crashed" in that time? Perhaps not relative to its already-depressed level, but it certainly didn't get better either. The joyride of quantitive easing may end as early as next month. Mandated government spending on entitlements and our massive debt are projected to increase as a percentage of GDP, while investment in R&D and infrastructure for the future will be necessarily squeezed.

I guess I just argued for the "gradual death" option. Heavy sigh.

To be fair we should show the whole thing.

But having said that it is the shift from manufacturing to service economy.
If you think about it Apple (itunes etc.) and IBM (software) are now service companies. Self driving cars are coming.
Then think about how much better things like PCBA manufacturing has gotten and compare that to getting a hair cut.
Next opportunity - better services.

 

2B) If it is for more pay and responsibility working for someone else or to give you credibility as an "engineer" to start your own business, then you need a cost benefit analysis. Include time and cash investment.

Now that we're on the same page (the thread is 4 years old) I can take this opportunity to reflect on my choices and progress since then.

I did quit my job and go to college. I went for about a month before I got bored and tired of not having money.
I started my own business while in school, sole proprietor LLC, doing Industrial Controls Field Service.
Before I finished one year in school, I had opened my eyes to a few things:

• I was already making more as a self employed technician than I would as a rookie engineer
• I had already engineered and sold more products (1) than my "Intro to Engineering" professor (0).
• I didn't want a 100% desk job.
• I didn't want to compete against imported (or outsourced) talent driving down the wage for Engineering to an already unacceptably low rate.
• I had a 4.0 GPA and I should probably quit while I'm ahead.

So I despite the fact that I was using the GI bill and not paying a dime for school (plus getting a housing allowance), I parted ways with school and went full-time self-employed. Then I got an offer from a competitor to join their team, and they would pay me more than I was paying myself, plus benefits.
Took the job, worked there for a year, loved it. Then they screwed me over on my pay so I went back to self employment, now knowing a little more about how to run a field service operation.

After a few months of being self employed, I got an offer from one of my customers for an Engineer position, so I took it. Just recently (after 1 year here) I found myself in a position to negotiate myself an unprecedented pay raise.

Right now is around the time I would be graduating had I stayed in school. I would be grovelling for a job as rookie Engineer, eager to "get out there" and start working my way toward riches in the neighborhood of $89,630/yr. Instead, I'm making appreciably more than that. Instead of being a rookie, I'm a senior Engineer here.

I'm proud to be the kind of guy who quits school and jobs on a whim.
I enjoy my job, and I take pride in being a non-degreed Engineer.
I just bought a house in the country, and I have a rifle range in my back yard.

Spending time to read to your kids each night, review their homework, do projects/designing/building things with them, will encourage them to learn by doing, build confidence and excel in school (all based on one seemingly happy wife and two successful and happy kids-your milage may vary).

There are also only so many days before your kids leave home. Google the lyrics to "cats in the cradle" and set your goals appropriately.
. Just make sure you have time for family - quality, interested, engaging time.

While the first half of your reply was rendered obsolete by the 4-yr gap, this second half is timeless.

I've had another kid since I posted this; she's walking now and starting to talk. Still married, everything is good. But I do feel at times like I do not give enough effort to my family. I don't know if it's an obligatory feeling that everyone gets, like "you can never do enough" but that feeling of guilt is too strong to ignore. It's the only thing separating me from 100% happiness I think. I don't see it reflected in my wife; she doesn't complain (much) about it and I am not in any danger of divorce over it, but I do see it in my kids. They crave my attention so badly that they do bad things to get it. There's 3 of them, and I can't give them all a sufficient portion of myself in the finite amount of time that evenings and weekends offer, while still managing to get done all the things that need done around the house.

 

The time with your kids is very limited and precious. My opinion is you can never have too much time with them. The changes come fast and who they are now is fleeting.

 

I have a rifle range in my back yard.

And a one-eye'd dog, I'll bet.

 

And a one-eye'd dog, I'll bet.

Dog still has both eyes for now. But that is subject to change.

 

I'd say they're incredibly effective.

Here's a BLS plot of labor force participation during my adult life (from when I started working after college, until now). It captures very well the general state of things as viewed from people on the ground. Things are "good" when the line goes up, and not so good as it drops.

When people my age talk about "the good old days", it's about the left-hand side of this plot.
View attachment 94938
This thread was begun in the beginning of 2012. The economy had already crashed at that point, and I suppose strantor was wondering where the bottom was. How much worse would it get?

Here we are almost 4 years later. Has it "crashed" in that time? Perhaps not relative to its already-depressed level, but it certainly didn't get better either. The joyride of quantitive easing may end as early as next month. Mandated government spending on entitlements and our massive debt are projected to increase as a percentage of GDP, while investment in R&D and infrastructure for the future will be necessarily squeezed.

I guess I just argued for the "gradual death" option. Heavy sigh.

Sometimes, those graphs of economic activity resemble geologic activity too. Strange coincidence isn't it???

 

Here's a BLS plot of labor force participation during my adult life (from when I started working after college, until now). It captures very well the general state of things as viewed from people on the ground. Things are "good" when the line goes up, and not so good as it drops.

When people my age talk about "the good old days", it's about the left-hand side of this plot.

I think this chart simply tells us that
- lots of families sent a second parent into the workforce because of severe inflation in the 1980s,
- people got used to living as two-income families
- lots of people lost their jobs in 2008-11.
- baby boomers started retiring as the stock market recovered.

 

Where do you think they get those graphs?


In the 50s and 60s women were not in the workforce like today.

Context gentlemen.

 

I think this chart simply tells us that
- lots of families sent a second parent into the workforce because of severe inflation in the 1980s...

Inflation and unemployment both fell hugely during the 80's. Thus the declining "misery index".

 

Inflation and unemployment both fell hugely during the 80's. Thus the declining "misery index".

I agree that the RATE of inflation decreased. If you would have read the entire document that you linked to, you would have seen that Instantaneous Rate and cumulative effect look different. Consumer price index is a better chart to look at than RATE of inflation. Your view of 1980s economic prosperity is like saying, "As long as you start applying the brakes you will not hit the wall ahead of you." Bullshit. Families were going broke and, although the decisions were painful, as soon as the kids were in school, or a second income would justify daycare costs, families would send the wife into the workforce. Even if the year was 1988 by the time it was justified, a second parent was entering the workforce.

And, if "misery" decreased so much, I didn't don't remember any second wage earner deciding to stay home. That is mostly because those famous misery indices are based on "household income" and per-employee overtime, not primary wage earner's income. So, no accommodation for loss of family time if I remember correctly.

 

If your trying to argue that the '80s were anything other than one of the biggest boom times in American history, well, history is against you. Were you there? I was.

 

I was fond of the 90's, but I was in California in high tech.