# How long until the U.S. economy crashes?

## How long until the U.S. Economy crashes?

• ### in the next 20 years

• Total voters
14

#### strantor

Joined Oct 3, 2010
6,040

#### magnet18

Joined Dec 22, 2010
1,227
I think we need to cut the crap and make some serious changes, and some really though decisions, or things are going to go south
China has waaaay to much of our debt. and the defecit keeps climbing. It dosent take a rocket surgeon to see that that somethings gotta give.

yea. long story short, unless we back away from this metaphorical ledge, were gonna fall
somethings gotta give eventually, you cant just spend your way out of debt

#### strantor

Joined Oct 3, 2010
6,040
keep tabs over here. same poll, economics forum.
one vote for <2yrs so far from a "Occupation: Forex & Futures Trader"

#### MrChips

Joined Oct 2, 2009
26,791
I think it is going to crash within the next 12 months.

#### strantor

Joined Oct 3, 2010
6,040
7 votes now on the economics forum, <24months still in the lead there. let's hear it guys.

#### strantor

Joined Oct 3, 2010
6,040
I think it is going to crash within the next 12 months.
what do you think will be the extent of the damages?

#### strantor

Joined Oct 3, 2010
6,040
I'm trying to plan around this. Not sure if it's a good idea to quit my job and go to college right now. Having trouble predicting the outcome of either decision right now.

#### justtrying

Joined Mar 9, 2011
438
well, if the economy crashes, job losses are likely, so might as well start school... and yes we do need to cut the crap, like the everlasting economic growth and consumer based economy BS. I am officially giving up trying to understand it. Every natural model has growth until an equilibrium is reached, how is it that every year growth is expected to happen? I can only see it as a dream child of the banks and the stock market. Real world does not need it. We shall witness the self-correcting mechanism at work within a year...

Joined Dec 26, 2010
2,148
There must be a danger of negative economic events in the USA, and perhaps more so in Europe. I think though that it is difficult to predict what will happen, let alone when. The future seems uncertain even according to so-called experts, and I don't suppose many on this forum would claim that title for themselves. Publicly expressed "expert" opinions are actually quite divided. I think that we should be sceptical about trusting any of them, for at least three reasons:

1. Idealogical bias: the predictor espouses some -ism or other, and so is determined that the status quo shall/shall not continue. All data must therefore be carefully presented so that it appears to fit the required conclusion.
2. The predictor is concerned not to do harm. Some people may think this a responsible attitude, of avoiding making negative statements lest they cause panic.
3. Vested interests: some people who claim to know about these things may also have a personal stake for example in stocks or banking. If they stand to gain from say some stock rising (or even falling) they may choose their words accordingly.
Basically, I haven't got a clue where this leaves us.

#### MrChips

Joined Oct 2, 2009
26,791
The greatest obstacle to effective change is the human psyche itself.

Having to face reality generates fear, anger, denial and a comatose state of inaction.

No two "experts" will arrive at the same conclusion. By the time all the data is carefully presented it will be too late. The evidence is clear. Our current path of economic expansion, depletion of finite resources, destruction of the global ecosystem and growing social inequity and human injustice is not sustainable.

Our financial structure created the problems we are in. How do we expect to fix the problem with "business as usual"?

"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." - Albert Einstein.

We can begin by recognizing that a "wicked" problem exists and start talking about it openly.

#### jimkeith

Joined Oct 26, 2011
540
I'm trying to plan around this. Not sure if it's a good idea to quit my job and go to college right now. Having trouble predicting the outcome of either decision right now.
If you can go to school debt free, fine...but do not go into debt!
There has been a resurgence of debtor prisons of late and with our constitution now officially trashed (NDAA signed into law Dec 31) we are in for a rough ride. Up to this point, debt has not been a problem in this way except for ...IRS debt and/or contempt of court ordered payments such as child support--school debt is now getting scary...

Also there was much talk last month about staffing FEMA camps.
Perhaps you can apply as an internment specialist--NOT!

#### shortbus

Joined Sep 30, 2009
9,532
Until honesty is restored it(economy) will never mend its self. From government officials to heads of manufacturing and banking are made to 'account' for them selves it will go till a final collapse. The clerk in an office and the person working the assembly line are not the problem.

John Dalberg-Acton said it all back in the 1890's and no one listened when or now -
• “Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”[4][9][10][11]
• "Great men are almost always bad men."[12][4]
• “There is no worse heresy than that the office sanctifies the holder of it.”[4]
• “The one pervading evil of democracy is the tyranny of the majority, or rather of that party, not always the majority, that succeeds, by force or fraud, in carrying elections.” [13]
• “Be not content with the best book; seek sidelights from the others; have no favourites.”[14]
• "The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks."[15]
• "Every thing secret degenerates, even the administration of justice; nothing is safe that does not show how it can bear discussion and publicity."[16]
• "The danger is not that a particular class is unfit to govern. Every class is unfit to govern."[17]
• "There is no error so monstrous that it fails to find defenders among the ablest men."[17]
• "At all times sincere friends of freedom have been rare, and its triumphs have been due to minorities, that have prevailed by associating themselves with auxiliaries whose objects differed from their own; and this association, which is always dangerous, has been sometimes disastrous, by giving to opponents just grounds of opposition."[18]
• “Universal History is . . . not a burden on the memory but an illumination of the soul.”[19]
• "There is not a more perilous or immoral habit of mind than the sanctifying of success." (said of Oliver Cromwell)[20]
• “The strong man with the dagger is followed by the weak man with the sponge.”[21][22]
• "The science of politics is the one science that is deposited by the streams of history, like the grains of gold in the sand of a river; and the knowledge of the past, the record of truths revealed by experience, is eminently practical, as an instrument of action and a power that goes to making the future."[23]
• "Save for the wild force of Nature, nothing moves in this world that is not Greek in its origin."[24]
• "Liberty is not the power of doing what we like, but the right of being able to do what we ought."[25]
from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Dalberg-Acton,_1st_Baron_Acton

#### strantor

Joined Oct 3, 2010
6,040
thanks for the input guys. Really good points made in the past 3 or 4 posts. lots to think about. BTW here's the stats on the poll @ the economics forum
in the next 2 years 10 37.04%
in the next 5 years 1 3.70%
in the next 10 years 4 14.81%
in the next 20 years 1 3.70%
It won't "crash" per se, but die a gradual painful death over many years 7 25.93%
The economy isn't going anywhere, Strantor is just paranoid. 4 14.81%

#### strantor

Joined Oct 3, 2010
6,040
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." - Albert Einstein.
I've been reflecting on that idea for a while. I was inspired by this demotivator a couple of weeks ago.

#### loosewire

Joined Apr 25, 2008
1,686
Who gave the credit card companies to operate our of two states.

fereral reserve gave the permission,I don't think all states have the laws.

The fed allows them to operate by rules,like if two states do it they let the rest of the states join,check it out.

#### Glenn Holland

Joined Dec 26, 2014
705
The San Francisco Bay Area is a prime example of what I call a "3B" economy.

That is "Boom, Bust & Bailout". Obama has been to San Francisco 22 times to "fund raise" -IE- exchange political contributions for favors (big \$ from Washington) and Hillary has been here 5 times.

#### GopherT

Joined Nov 23, 2012
8,012
I can't sleep tonight - back issues, so I wrote a lot more than planned. Feel free to read or ignore.

---
That question and your motivation for asking are akin to asking, "should I have kids now or later - when I can better afford it?"

You have to look at the total career - until retirement and beyond for the answer. Here are some things to consider in no particular order.

1) look at other economic downturns and depressions in the past. How long did it take to recover from them. I would say that it takes 8 to 10 years for the economy as a whole (average) but I recovered much faster. Is there a point to worrying about it?

2A) if college is on the agenda because you simply want more intellectual stimulation, then that's on you and a strictly personal decision.
2B) If it is for more pay and responsibility working for someone else or to give you credibility as an "engineer" to start your own business, then you need a cost benefit analysis. Include time and cash investment.

I would need more info about your plan to even guide a calculation (full time, part time, cash flow situation, expected salary after college vs salary without college ...). Do not overlook time if you plan to work and go to college at the time. There are only so many hours in a day.

Now, I may be wrong but let's assume you want to do this to make your salary bigger so you can offer a better life to your wife and kids. Is more cash the best way to do this? The tradeoff is, is more time spent doing things with your wife and kids a better way to invest in their future? Divorce is ver expensive and will wipe out any future benefit on the spouse side of things. Spending time to read to your kids each night, review their homework, do projects/designing/building things with them, will encourage them to learn by doing, build confidence and excel in school (all based on one seemingly happy wife and two successful and happy kids-your milage may vary).

In other words, you have to balance your "plan for the future" with "wasting the present".

There are also only so many days before your kids leave home. Google the lyrics to "cats in the cradle" and set your goals appropriately.

I guess I could go on but, again, without knowing your situation on motivation, finance status, future plans and time budget (and priorities), I'll let you think it through on your own. Just make sure you have time for family - quality, interested, engaging time.

#### boatsman

Joined Jan 17, 2008
186
Looking at events at present in Europe I think that all the previous observations will be made totally irrelevant in the very near future. I think that like it or not the U.S. will be forced to take action. Think back to 1917 and then to 1941. Sooner or later the U.S. and western Europe, possibly also with the addition of Russia will be forced into military action, boots on the ground, and this will effectively divert the economy into vast military spending giving a kick-start to the whole economy.

#### spinnaker

Joined Oct 29, 2009
7,835
Does everyone realize this is a almost a 4 year old thread that was revived by Glenn Holland for some reason.

#### Papabravo

Joined Feb 24, 2006
18,991
I guess we all got jacked up over not much of nothing. It usually goes that way because we are generally really lousy at predicting the future. We should give up that noxious pastime and go about living our lives regardless of what comes down the pike.