History

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by BR-549, Jun 12, 2018.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. BR-549

    Thread Starter AAC Fanatic!

    Sep 22, 2013
    4,936
    1,348
    Are we about to see NK history this morning?
     
  2. WBahn

    Moderator

    Mar 31, 2012
    24,553
    7,691
    Probably not. This may or may not lead to something historic, but like anything of that significance it will require a LOT of further negotiations at many different levels before anything can be finalized.

    Plus, North Korea has such a poor track record of honoring any kind of deal it has entered into that the framework that is worked out, to be worth the paper it is written on, is going to have to have serious verification protocols and enforceable penalties if it is not honored. Even if North Korea is serious about reaching and adhering to an agreement, the kinds of protocols that would be needed would almost certainly stick in their craw because they will inevitably be shouting out "You aren't trustworthy!". So they will resist them and some way will have to be found to impose the protocols while letting North Korea save face. But it IS doable.

    What it really comes down to is whether North Korea's assessment of their position motivates them to enter into a binding agreement AND then abiding by it. While their track record isn't good, they are in a different position than in past attempts and are very possibly more desperate to get something in place. They are feeling pressure from several external sources and possibly some internal ones, though that's a lot harder to be sure of.
     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2018
    cmartinez likes this.
  3. cmartinez

    AAC Fanatic!

    Jan 17, 2007
    6,360
    7,983
  4. shortbus

    Expert

    Sep 30, 2009
    6,846
    4,027
    justtrying likes this.
  5. shortbus

    Expert

    Sep 30, 2009
    6,846
    4,027
    Can't remember who said it but it goes something like this, "just because something is happening for he first time, doesn't make it HISTORIC".
     
  6. wayneh

    Expert

    Sep 9, 2010
    16,102
    6,219
    100 years ago today, my grandfather was in a muddy trench on the Western Front in WW I. History comes in different disguises and we don't always recognize it.
     
    cmartinez likes this.
  7. RichardO

    Late Member

    May 4, 2013
    2,273
    895
    Neither side can be trusted on this...

    Let's see...
    The US offers to trade security guarantees for North Korea giving up their Nukes.

    This is like a bully telling his classmate: "Throw away your knife. Honest, I won't hurt you".

    What would you do?
     
    cmartinez and shortbus like this.
  8. cmartinez

    AAC Fanatic!

    Jan 17, 2007
    6,360
    7,983
    I'd throw away the smallest of my collection of 10,000 knives ... :D:p
     
  9. BR-549

    Thread Starter AAC Fanatic!

    Sep 22, 2013
    4,936
    1,348
    If the bully could turn my house and family into a hot crater.......or my farm into glass, 24/7......and if it was said in front of the whole school with video.......then yes....turn over the knife.
     
  10. BR-549

    Thread Starter AAC Fanatic!

    Sep 22, 2013
    4,936
    1,348
    Trump Diplomatic Doctrine.........Frame an ultimatum as a choice and a contracted agreement.

    Will it work on trade too? It's quite a business model.
     
  11. crutschow

    Expert

    Mar 14, 2008
    23,082
    6,848
    cmartinez likes this.
  12. Ylli

    Active Member

    Nov 13, 2015
    745
    217
    Wondering if that collapsing mountain destroyed so much of their nuclear program that they are unable to recover. Would be a good reason to try another path.
     
  13. Raymond Genovese

    Well-Known Member

    Mar 5, 2016
    1,643
    990
  14. wayneh

    Expert

    Sep 9, 2010
    16,102
    6,219
    I was taught to duck and cover in 1963. You're just now getting the $%$@ scared out of you? I'd say my odds of getting vaporized feel lower now than at any time in my life since those days with my head in my locker and my ass in the hallway, wondering how that was going to help me when ambient went to 6000°. :eek:
     
    nsaspook likes this.
  15. nsaspook

    Expert

    Aug 27, 2009
    6,185
    6,967
    NK will deal not because of the US, they will deal because China won't prop up them unless they do after 50 years of a misguided war that I believe caused the early death of my two uncles that froze nearly to death there in the 50's during the hot war. China wants to weakens the U.S. alliance with South Korea, reduce the U.S. military presence in Asia and limit the threat of hungry refugees at Chinese borders. Any excuse to get the hell out of the Korea's sounds good to me.
     
    cmartinez likes this.
  16. Raymond Genovese

    Well-Known Member

    Mar 5, 2016
    1,643
    990
    Well, not quite that old here, but I do remember a single shop teacher in junior high school who held his own drill where we had to get under our desk in case of a mushroom cloud. The school didn't have these officially, but he held his own (of course now days they are replaced by active shooter drills)....I also remember a lengthy lecture of his against 2-ply tires - he was right about that. As a kid, I remember asking my Mom who that guy was banging his shoe on the table, in those old RFE commercials....and of course those pesky missiles headed for Cuba.

    But, no, I am not just now just getting the $%$@ scared out of me - it's been going on for quite a few years, pretty much every day that I read/hear/see the news.
     
    shortbus likes this.
  17. Raymond Genovese

    Well-Known Member

    Mar 5, 2016
    1,643
    990
    Yes, I hear that reasoning frequently, including about 30 min ago. Sounds reasonable, but who knows? What, specifically, is China's motivation now, vs....ohhh 2-8 years ago?
     
  18. BR-549

    Thread Starter AAC Fanatic!

    Sep 22, 2013
    4,936
    1,348
    Trump.
     
    joeyd999 likes this.
  19. BR-549

    Thread Starter AAC Fanatic!

    Sep 22, 2013
    4,936
    1,348
    I think we know where Trump stands. The wild and worry card is Kim. And it shouldn't take too long for a sure sign. Trump is impatient.
     
  20. nsaspook

    Expert

    Aug 27, 2009
    6,185
    6,967
    2-8 years ago NK had some value to Chinese ambitions as a balance for the south using the old-school dictatorship model, today it's a crazy uncle (Kim Jong-un) in the basement that gives a good excuse for the US/Japan and most of Asia that despise the Chinese to keep a nuclear tripwire close to the Chinese sphere of influence. What the Chinese fear most is total regime collapse in a nuclear state on their border with brainwashed fanaticism at the button. IMO the Asian world powers have decided to stabilize the leadership of Kim with these talks as the US and China both know the NK nuclear bomb is more likely to destabilize China than to affect the US allies (other than South Korea) in a strategic way.
     
Loading...
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.