So, what's the excuse for not quarantining NYC?

 

"Silent Sprint" by Rachel Carson was published in 1962.
Fifty eight years later, what have we learnt?

That human beings throughout the world are living on average about 25 years longer?

According to this bleak article, the Wuhan virus is going to help "thin" the herd here in the U.S.

Barring major new developments, we must pursue intensive actions to flatten the curve and expand the capacity of the health care system. We must also minimize economic harms and set the stage for a rapid recovery, as others have advocated, with spending to ensure that no one goes hungry, homeless or without health care for financial reasons; prevent personal financial ruin because of loss of employment or medical expenses; and maintain business infrastructure, focused especially on small business with limited financial resources.

That is the most sane thing I have read in a long while.

 

Suppose you have a fire in your kitchen. It's not a big fire but it's a fire. You call the fire department and they rush right out. They look at it and say "Don't worry, it will burn itself out in a few minutes." Then they sit there and do nothing. You're obviously concerned because of the potential of losing the whole house. The fire grows and starts growing fast. The whole kitchen is ablaze but the fire chief says "You'll be back in your home tomorrow." You've lost all confidence in the fire department. Finally the whole house is engulfed in flames and the fire department FINALLY takes action to put the fire out.

Are you going to say what a wonderful job the fire department did in putting the fire out?

 

Dude! You found work ? ? ?

1) FWIW I'm not a 'dude'...
2) My work (i.e. my day Um... '24/7 job') has evolved into a way of life -- Howbeit not entirly without a 'glint of light' at the end of the proverbial 'tunnel' -- said excavation seeming some 50ly in extent

With somnolent regards
HP

 

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So, what's the excuse for not quarantining NYC?

They should have rolled tanks on NYC a week or more ago. Still should. No escape.

 

https://www.kptv.com/watch-golden-r...cle_38b9d19f-0984-5bb7-9597-b81cf7b08256.html

Golden retriever delivers groceries to at-risk elderly neighbor every day during quarantine

That's it, time to put Charlotte to work.

Ron

 

That's it, time to put Charlotte to work.

Ron

Your spouse's name is Charlotte?

 

They have already locked down Cheyenne MT and the Preppers "Millionaire Bunker" to keep the diseased out. International borders have closed. Now Florida and other states are battling the diaspora of those fleeing "hot spots" primarily in NY and Louisiana on the East Coast. Florida has even blocked I-10 and I-95 (but not I-75 or secondary roads). Unless they get serious about mandatory quarantine in place it is useless.

 

1) FWIW I'm not a 'dude'...
2) My work (i.e. my day Um... '24/7 job') has evolved into a way of life -- Howbeit not entirly without a 'glint of light' at the end of the proverbial 'tunnel' -- said excavation seeming some 50ly in extent

With somnolent regards
HP

Was going to ask if you could hook ME up.

 

1) FWIW I'm not a 'dude'...

OK, Dudette!

 

Your spouse's name is Charlotte?

Naw, that would be Kathleen. Charlotte is the Golden Retriever. Charlotte is trainable and become good at following orders. Kathleen? Not so much.

Ron

 

This is one of my main concerns, that "official" numbers given by governments can't entirely be trusted:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/wuhan-residents-say-coronavirus-figures-released-by-china-dont-add-up

For more than a week, seven large funeral homes that serve Wuhan have been handing out the cremated remains of about 500 people to their families every day. When added, the figure puts the official number the Chinese government has claimed into question.

 

Was going to ask if you could hook ME up.

Please count your blessings! 'House arrest' (self-imposed or otherwise) has got to be preferable by comparison -- Moreover, I'm here to tell ya! My 'shiny new' CISA card is no recompense for even the $1,200 pitance for which I am ineligible .... Wadda world! (tears)

TTFN
HP

 

That's absolutely true. But knowing how many people are truly infected CAN (and probably will) have an effect on how much more preparedness we should (need) to be.

I don't know that I entirely agree with that. IF 100 tests come back positive and less than 1% is an error - I don't see how you come up with this number. I'd welcome an explanation because for sure - I don't know everything. I only know what I know and am only able to reason out what I am able to reason out.

You need to define what you mean by "1% error." Out of context, that is virtually meaningless in the clinical testing arena. The calculation I gave considers a false-positive rate* of one-tenth of that (0.1%). In testing (and statistics) there are always at least 2 types of error. Since you disagree or didn't understand my analysis, maybe this will help you: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_I_and_type_II_errors
Some tests are also reported with an ambiguous or intermediate result or range. That complicates the picture somewhat.

*False-positive rate is the incidents/rate of positive test results in the absence of disease or what is defined as a true positive. False-negative rate is the rate of negative results when the disease is present or expected result should be positive. And so forth.

 

Naw, that would be Kathleen. Charlotte is the Golden Retriever. Charlotte is trainable and become good at following orders. Kathleen? Not so much.

Ron

They recommend getting a dog before you get children to see if you can withstand the test of having a puppy. I recommend getting a premature rescue husky before getting into a relationship. It will tell you if you can learn to love them as they are as they will never change.

The cuteness factor is high

 

The cuteness factor is high

Yeah... that's why I married a woman with an extremely high cuteness factor too...

 

That's it, time to put Charlotte to work.

Ron

You mean like this?



Or this?

 

Yep, like those and they make great companions for those suffering COVOIDS 19. I think I read somewhere dogs were not immune?

Ron

 

Deep in the Dark. There are a few on the boat that know but can't tell. Someone gives the messages to the commander.

https://apnews.com/82739c3cf06b8acc415b71fd3c950aa1

Mariners aboard ballistic submarines are habitually spared bad news while underwater to avoid undermining their morale, say current and former officers who served aboard France’s nuclear-armed subs. So any crews that left port before the virus spread around the globe are likely being kept in the dark about the extent of the rapidly unfurling crisis by their commanders until their return, they say.


“They won’t know,” said retired Adm. Dominique Salles, who commanded the French ballistic submarine squadron from 2003-2006. “The boys need to be completely available for their mission.”

Speaking exclusively to The Associated Press, Salles said he believes submariners will likely only be told of the pandemic as they head back to port, in the final two days of their mission.

 

You need to define what you mean by "1% error." Out of context, that is virtually meaningless

I believe I said "Less Than 1%". There's a lot of numbers between 1 and zero. It can encompass a lot of area.

I just wasn't able to follow your numbers the way they were presented. Not saying you're in error, just saying that I found what you said somewhat confusing to me. Maybe others understood it - I didn't exactly understand it. I will have a look at the link you gave.

Thank you.

Stay well.