What I am talking abut might not be immediately clear but if not I beg your indulgence because I believe it will come into focus as you get moire information. I would really appreciate constructive input on this.
I began thinking about how technology that was current when I was younger is now characterized as “ancient”. While this is certainly an exaggeration, it is indicative of the experience of the speaker and that struck me. When I think of “ancient technology”, what comes to mind are things like primitive water wheels or early windlasses, etc. But today, the PSTN telephone seems “ancient” to average people.
This provoked thoughts of how for any given time span from the past, the same span would include more technological progress per year now than it did then. Akin to “dog years”, I would like to be able to calculate (and it will have to be almost purely speculative, but at least plausible) “progress years”. That is, some way to calculate the equivalence of time vs. progress for two different time ranges.
It is immediately obvious that, unlike the simple coefficient to derive dog years since technology itself lead to acceleration of the process (see: Moore’s Law). So there has to be some accommodation for this effect, and, while I am not immediately concentrating on the math, I want to think about the variables that would underlie it.
In particular, just now I am thinking about the punctuated timeline of technology that would possibly mark inflections in the curve. I have a prospective list, and it would be very nice if you could give some feedback about it. The items on this list are intended to be top tier enabling technologies. It is absolutely the case that various factors lead to each of these, they don’t stand alone. But on this list they do stand for punctuations in the historical timeline of technologies that dramatically changed the world and technology as an idea.
The list may have problems with sequence, items might be of a different class than they should be, or items may be missing. Proposed amendments and additions, and the rationale for them, are especially welcome—but anything that comes to mind is desirable.
Below is a sketchy framework for the idea that I am starting with.
Water Power
Steam Power
Electric Power
Telegraphy/Telephony
Vacuum Tube
Radio
Transistor
Integrated Circuit
Microcomputer
CNC Machine Tools
Mobile Telephony/Wireless Data Networks
Additive Manufacturing
I began thinking about how technology that was current when I was younger is now characterized as “ancient”. While this is certainly an exaggeration, it is indicative of the experience of the speaker and that struck me. When I think of “ancient technology”, what comes to mind are things like primitive water wheels or early windlasses, etc. But today, the PSTN telephone seems “ancient” to average people.
This provoked thoughts of how for any given time span from the past, the same span would include more technological progress per year now than it did then. Akin to “dog years”, I would like to be able to calculate (and it will have to be almost purely speculative, but at least plausible) “progress years”. That is, some way to calculate the equivalence of time vs. progress for two different time ranges.
It is immediately obvious that, unlike the simple coefficient to derive dog years since technology itself lead to acceleration of the process (see: Moore’s Law). So there has to be some accommodation for this effect, and, while I am not immediately concentrating on the math, I want to think about the variables that would underlie it.
In particular, just now I am thinking about the punctuated timeline of technology that would possibly mark inflections in the curve. I have a prospective list, and it would be very nice if you could give some feedback about it. The items on this list are intended to be top tier enabling technologies. It is absolutely the case that various factors lead to each of these, they don’t stand alone. But on this list they do stand for punctuations in the historical timeline of technologies that dramatically changed the world and technology as an idea.
The list may have problems with sequence, items might be of a different class than they should be, or items may be missing. Proposed amendments and additions, and the rationale for them, are especially welcome—but anything that comes to mind is desirable.
Below is a sketchy framework for the idea that I am starting with.
Water Power
Steam Power
Electric Power
Telegraphy/Telephony
Vacuum Tube
Radio
Transistor
Integrated Circuit
Microcomputer
CNC Machine Tools
Mobile Telephony/Wireless Data Networks
Additive Manufacturing