There is no "we can" there is only power and weakness, the powerful strive to maintain and increase their power, the weak are compelled to serve the interests of power.

The weak are constantly reassured by the powerful, how good life is, so they rarely challenge power, as soon as one seriously challenges power, that power becomes vicious.

Never in the history of human civilization have the powerful had as much capacity to destroy the world as they have today.

You can be optimistic but you are powerless to confront power, tell me what do you think "we" can do?

Population is rising, pollution is rising, democracy is crumbling, food and water security is declining, irrationality, nationalism is rising, the world is a powder keg...

Hi,

Maybe we are seeing the Universe as it unfolds for our locality. When we look way out in deep space, we mostly see destruction. It seems to be the way of the Universe. Make something great, then destroy it at some time in the future.

There are so many things that can end this civilization and all life and even the entire planet and even the solar system. How were we so lucky, and how long with that hold out. It's a probability game, with forces so huge we can't even imagine.

 

Yes RSA is supposed to be pretty good. We will have to wait and see just how good it is in the future though.

How is RSA supposed to be pretty good? It is based on the discrete log problem, which reduces to the prime factorization problem, which Shor's algorithm defeats immediately on a quantum computer with sufficient qubits.

 

How is RSA supposed to be pretty good? It is based on the discrete log problem, which reduces to the prime factorization problem, which Shor's algorithm defeats immediately on a quantum computer with sufficient qubits.

Where is the quantum computer that can break RSA-2048 'immediately' today? I think we need a LOT more q-bits for that don't we?
I didn't think they had one big enough yet to do that such as with RSA-4096.

There are better ones that take advantage of what QC's cannot do very well even in the future.

 

Where is the quantum computer that can break RSA-2048 'immediately' today? I think we need a LOT more q-bits for that don't we?
I didn't think they had one big enough yet to do that such as with RSA-4096.

There are better ones that take advantage of what QC's cannot do very well even in the future.

Of course there aren't quantum computers that can break RSA-2048 today, but serious industry experts, not the folks that have an interest in over-hyping it, say that there is less than a 10% chance of it happing in the next 10 years, but an 90% change of it happening within the next 20 to 25 years. Furthermore, the trends in these estimates tend to be coming down. The Global Risk Initiative's assessment in 2023 had 50% of the experts engages estimating that it would happen by 2043 and 80% by 2053, while their 2025 survey had 50% expecting it by 2035 and 70% expecting it by 2040. Much of this advancement is not from being able to make machines with more physical qubits, which is definitely happening, but in progress in reducing the number of physical qubits needed. It was previously estimated that to break RSA-2048 in a week would require 20 million noisy qubits but now is expected that it can be done with under a million.

As with many technologies throughout history, it will not be surprising to see the ability to make quantum computers with more qubits reach a breakout point in which we go from figuring out how to get just a few more and struggling at each step, to figuring out how to scale it up arbitrarily and being limited only by manufacturing limits.

 

Of course there aren't quantum computers that can break RSA-2048 today, but serious industry experts, not the folks that have an interest in over-hyping it, say that there is less than a 10% chance of it happing in the next 10 years, but an 90% change of it happening within the next 20 to 25 years. Furthermore, the trends in these estimates tend to be coming down. The Global Risk Initiative's assessment in 2023 had 50% of the experts engages estimating that it would happen by 2043 and 80% by 2053, while their 2025 survey had 50% expecting it by 2035 and 70% expecting it by 2040. Much of this advancement is not from being able to make machines with more physical qubits, which is definitely happening, but in progress in reducing the number of physical qubits needed. It was previously estimated that to break RSA-2048 in a week would require 20 million noisy qubits but now is expected that it can be done with under a million.

As with many technologies throughout history, it will not be surprising to see the ability to make quantum computers with more qubits reach a breakout point in which we go from figuring out how to get just a few more and struggling at each step, to figuring out how to scale it up arbitrarily and being limited only by manufacturing limits.

Hi,

To put this in perspective, by then I probably won't even be able to spell "RSA" ha ha.
Unfortunately, we don't live forever so there are some time limits to what we might be able to see in our lifetimes.

 

Hi,

To put this in perspective, by then I probably won't even be able to spell "RSA" ha ha.
Unfortunately, we don't live forever so there are some time limits to what we might be able to see in our lifetimes.

This is certainly true. I hope I'm around for 2050, since I'll only be 74. But I figure that, beyond that, I'm on borrowed time (well, I've been on borrowed time since the late 80s, but we'll ignore that).

 

Frankly no. Nothing man does can save mankind, our world and so called civilization is dying. For example we have the computational power today that demonstrates the destructive effect of climate change, yet those we allow to lead us deny it is real and so it is escalating, nothing could be more absurd.

So stop thinking technology can save us, it cannot, fools are in control and no technology can fix that.

“Knowledge is a deadly friend,
if no one sets the rules.
The fate of all mankind, I see,
is in the hands of fools.”

— King Crimson

 

 

This is certainly true. I hope I'm around for 2050, since I'll only be 74. But I figure that, beyond that, I'm on borrowed time (well, I've been on borrowed time since the late 80s, but we'll ignore that).

Hi,

Oh, I hope you realized you revealed your approximate age, and in doing so you did surprise me because you seem to have wisdom beyond your current age. I would have probably guessed 70.
I'd ask about the borrowed time but not sure you want to reveal any of that. What we encounter in life is often fairly personal.

 

Hi,

Oh, I hope you realized you revealed your approximate age, and in doing so you did surprise me because you seem to have wisdom beyond your current age. I would have probably guessed 70.
I'd ask about the borrowed time but not sure you want to reveal any of that. What we encounter in life is often fairly personal.

May I ask, why did you choose the name "Mr AI" back in 2014 when you joined the forum?

 

May I ask, why did you choose the name "Mr AI" back in 2014 when you joined the forum?

I'm more curious about his choice of Avatar, if you don't mind me joining the inquiry ...

 

Hi,

Oh, I hope you realized you revealed your approximate age, and in doing so you did surprise me because you seem to have wisdom beyond your current age. I would have probably guessed 70.
I'd ask about the borrowed time but not sure you want to reveal any of that. What we encounter in life is often fairly personal.

I've never hidden my age on the forums and have mentioned it many times, as well as the year I was born and the year I graduated from high school.

 

I've never hidden my age on the forums and have mentioned it many times, as well as the year I was born and the year I graduated from high school.

Oh ok great, I didn't realize you said all that.
So what is your credit card number? (ha ha).
Actually there are safeguards for that these days too but the less info you give out the better anyway. That's the first rule of security.

 

May I ask, why did you choose the name "Mr AI" back in 2014 when you joined the forum?

Hi,

Oh, many years ago I met this really nice Spanish speaking lady that lived in my apartment building and she used to call me Mister AL (but I think it might have been Sir AL because she was very respectful) so I used Mister AL.
I think she was actually from Spain.

 

I'm more curious about his choice of Avatar, if you don't mind me joining the inquiry ...

Hi,

Oh, that story is rather comical.

It is a character from South Park, the funny, animated adult cartoon that's been on TV for years now, mostly on the Comedy Channel.
It happens to be their version of God. Yes, that's South Parks 'God' ha ha. However, I modified it a little to make it more comical and not actually use their version which they might not like exactly except for the fact that they get free advertising for the show ha ha.
I thought it was the funniest thing and that it was cute. What is not obvious from that picture though is that the character is only about 2 or 3 feet tall (ha ha). It 'speaks' in a very low methodical voice that might sound like many peoples idea of what God might sound like if He spoke out loud. It's got a lot of reverb to go with it too like speaking in a large auditorium. It only shows up once in a blue moon on the show though, and one time it was because 'Jesus' (also a character on the show sometimes) asked Him to come down for some questions.
To add to the comedy, when this God character came down to earth to answer one question, the question was asked quickly by one of the boys who asked why he didn't get his period yet (ha ha). God answered that he was a boy so he does not get periods. Then God went back up into the sky in a flash of light stating that he would come back in aother 2000 years to answer another question. All the adults there were mad because that kid asked such a stupid question and so they couldn't ask anything significant. It was really funny.