The Case Against Quantum Computing

MisterBill2

Joined Jan 23, 2018
27,528
Certainly the issue of containment is far from a "mere detail", although it seems that some fools are not looking at it that way. Probably it would be much more efficient to create a system that absorbs the whole bandwidth of the solar energy arriving here. THAT could provide all of the energy we need, and not take up nearly as much space.
BUT working on a program with no chance of success provides a comfortable career for quite a few people.
 

joeyd999

Joined Jun 6, 2011
6,300
THAT could provide all of the energy we need...
We already have all the energy we need in fission, fossil fuels, and the small contributions of hydro and geothermal.

Wind and solar are just expensive environmental disasters in progress, and fusion is a money-wasting pipe dream.
 

MisterBill2

Joined Jan 23, 2018
27,528
We already have all the energy we need in fission, fossil fuels, and the small contributions of hydro and geothermal.

Wind and solar are just expensive environmental disasters in progress, and fusion is a money-wasting pipe dream.
No argument about THAT!!
But really, a system for full-spectrum solar energy collection would be the way to go, because it would probably be more reliable. (My guess on that part.)
 

MrAl

Joined Jun 17, 2014
13,706
Hi,

Not sure if anyone mentioned this yet, but I have read now that a Tokamak has been able to exceed the Greenwald limit by 10 times, something I don't think they were expecting to work, ever.
If this is true, it's another milestone we've passed involving fusion.

Someone mentioned that we can't use gravity for any kind of containment. That may be true now, but there are experiments going on now to dig deeper into what gravity really is, and if we get lucky we may be able to control gravity one day. I am not betting on this, but it is a possibility. From what we found out about quantum physics and how certain things seem to alter reality, we can't leave anything off the table just yet.

Just hope nobody creates a giant black hole on earth by accident :)
 

MisterBill2

Joined Jan 23, 2018
27,528
It still would make a lot more sense to be able to capture and utilize more of the solar energy that hits the earth.
That will be much simpler to keep under control.
Just how does anyone propose to control a self sustaining fusion reaction????
That is a question to think about, as I see it. Do they even have a clue??? Or will that answer come after another 20 years??? REALLY, it does need to be considered.
 

Thread Starter

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
16,326
It still would make a lot more sense to be able to capture and utilize more of the solar energy that hits the earth.
That will be much simpler to keep under control.
Just how does anyone propose to control a self sustaining fusion reaction????
That is a question to think about, as I see it. Do they even have a clue??? Or will that answer come after another 20 years??? REALLY, it does need to be considered.
Solar is great but it can't be the only solution.
https://democracyjournal.org/arguments/why-renewables-cannot-replace-fossil-fuels/
Why Renewables Cannot Replace Fossil Fuels
It’s all in the math and physics.
the backbone of any robust system must be reliable 24/7 (baseload) power. And the problem is much bigger than just replacing existing fossil plants. America’s reindustrialization, along with the electrification of transportation, heating, and industry, will double or triple electrical demand before 2050. It will take massive new energy generation to meet that challenge. Our nation still needs to come up with a plan to meet that projected increase in baseload demand with clean 24/7 energy.
Yes, they (nuclear experts) have a clue, even if clueless others don't.
 
Last edited:

Thread Starter

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
16,326
https://www.forbes.com/sites/craigs...n-military-encryption-with-quantum-computers/
Debunking Hype: China Hasn't Broken Military Encryption With Quantum
“This kind of overstatement does more harm than good,” Dr. Garcell said. “Misrepresenting current capabilities as 'breaking military-grade encryption' is not just inaccurate—it's potentially damaging to the field's credibility."

Jason Soroko, senior fellow at Sectigo and co-host of the Root Causes podcast, said that there are no alarm bells ringing. “Quantum resistant algorithms that we are currently working with from the recent NIST standardization are also resistant to Quantum Annealing," he said. NIST is the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology.
The media often seeks sensational stories, and the prospect of quantum computers cracking encryption algorithms makes for eye-catching headlines. However, these headlines can be misleading when they suggest that RSA encryption is on the verge of collapse due to new quantum breakthroughs.
 

MisterBill2

Joined Jan 23, 2018
27,528
Notice how so many are asking the courts to work harder yet at reducing "Natural Selection". So aside from wanting everything powered electrically, they also feel that nobody should be responsible for the results of their actions.
 

MrAl

Joined Jun 17, 2014
13,706
Hello again,

I read an article that suggested that there could easily be a universal limit to technological development (ULTD).
That would mean that any civilization would be limited because of various factors that have a sort of "break even" point where the gains equal the losses and so it gets just too hard to go any farther with technology because the losses get higher than the gains.
This also helps to explain why we don't have any absolute proof of any alien communications yet.

Maybe we are reaching this point already. An example is the LHC, which cost a huge amount of money to get going, and a huge amount to keep going (like 300 million per year at the present time). With that kind of upstart cost and overhead how could it ever be possible to build an even larger one, which would be required to advance technology another step further. We may have reached the limit on that already. Even though theory says we could do better, the costs seem to prohibit this, which places us at the end of that technology.

With fusion, we seem to be barely scraping by. Could it even end before we get all the way there.

Quantum computing does seem to be making headway though. It does seem to be getting better and better without costs that are impractical.

'ai' on the other hand, seems to be stalled or something. The biggest downside seems to be that although it provides some answers, it does not seem to have good judgement and is not self-aware enough to police its own opinions like any intelligent human can do.
 

Thread Starter

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
16,326
Of the three, Fusion energy is IMO the most likely short term technology to advance. Short burst, small systems are high school projects.
http://www.sciradioactive.com/my-reactors

Maintaining a fusion reaction requires a lot of energy, precise monitoring and control of the plasma. With today's compute and micro sensor technology at the LHC level of fine beam control, long term fusion plasma stability should also be possible with ITER sized systems.

Economic viability is a separate discussion even with working Fusion systems because we don't want a few small or large scale reactors, we really want lots of medium scale systems of industrial sizing.
 

MisterBill2

Joined Jan 23, 2018
27,528
Nobody is even mentioning the very real possibility that small or medium scale fusion systems are not ever going to work. Of course, admitting that probability would totally destroy a lot of very well paying research careers. So it will always be "twenty years in the future". And we are every one of us paying for it.
 
Top