I took up statistics this year in order to write a computer program to predict the outcomes of football games. To start with I downloaded last year's data and looked it over for any patterns that might suggest possible algorithms with which to make a mathematical prediction.
I noticed offensive ranking predicted New Orleans to be the best team in football. Minnesota was right up there, so was Green Bay to name the top of the list. So I took the offensive ranking (1-32) and added it to 1/2*Defensive ranking and compared the matched up teams. Also, I subtracted 5 for home field advantage.
Quality = offense + 1/2 defense - 5 if home team. The lower the score, the higher the quality and these quality factors were used to predict outcomes of particular match-ups.
After 3 games my program is only 55% correct. I think I could do as well just by guessing. It's back to the drawing board.
Total yards seems to be the best way to rank both offenses and defenses. But there's a trick to it: Scoring 30 points against the Seahawks is not the same as scoring 30 points against the Packers. Thus there needs to be a "weighted" total yards.
This is just one thought. I have others. Does anyone else have any thoughts on this? Another is this: The Seahawks should have a heavier weight for home field advantage than the Chargers because the home-away stats for each team.
I noticed offensive ranking predicted New Orleans to be the best team in football. Minnesota was right up there, so was Green Bay to name the top of the list. So I took the offensive ranking (1-32) and added it to 1/2*Defensive ranking and compared the matched up teams. Also, I subtracted 5 for home field advantage.
Quality = offense + 1/2 defense - 5 if home team. The lower the score, the higher the quality and these quality factors were used to predict outcomes of particular match-ups.
After 3 games my program is only 55% correct. I think I could do as well just by guessing. It's back to the drawing board.
Total yards seems to be the best way to rank both offenses and defenses. But there's a trick to it: Scoring 30 points against the Seahawks is not the same as scoring 30 points against the Packers. Thus there needs to be a "weighted" total yards.
This is just one thought. I have others. Does anyone else have any thoughts on this? Another is this: The Seahawks should have a heavier weight for home field advantage than the Chargers because the home-away stats for each team.