Thread Title:
Inflation and shortages!

Now I may be off base with this but the way I see it, it is impossible to have a thread title like that and manage to avoid the government and politics in the thread. While we can blame the pandemic that will only take us back to how the pandemic was or is being handled. Really matters not who a sitting president might be but all roads in the US are going to lead to a sitting president and the White House. I do not see a way around it and if there is a way around it I drove past it. Currently over the last 9 months we are seeing the worst inflation in over something like 30 years.

Once goods arrive on our shores from abroad or if I want a California or Florida orange the only way that orange is going to find its way to Ohio is by truck and someone driving the truck. We have fuel cost going out of sight and nobody to drive the truck.

Anyway, I see no way to discuss inflation and shortages less involving politics. When the train derails people are always going to look towards the person driving the train. The person buying fuel oil will always want to know why it cost so much. So do we just blame a pandemic or do we question how a government handles a pandemic? Every move on the part of any government and leader is going to be scrutinized and questioned and people will want believable answers. Well at least smart people will want answers.

Ron

 

Thread Title:
Inflation and shortages!

Now I may be off base with this but the way I see it, it is impossible to have a thread title like that and manage to avoid the government and politics in the thread. While we can blame the pandemic that will only take us back to how the pandemic was or is being handled. Really matters not who a sitting president might be but all roads in the US are going to lead to a sitting president and the White House. I do not see a way around it and if there is a way around it I drove past it. Currently over the last 9 months we are seeing the worst inflation in over something like 30 years.

Once goods arrive on our shores from abroad or if I want a California or Florida orange the only way that orange is going to find its way to Ohio is by truck and someone driving the truck. We have fuel cost going out of sight and nobody to drive the truck.

Anyway, I see no way to discuss inflation and shortages less involving politics. When the train derails people are always going to look towards the person driving the train. The person buying fuel oil will always want to know why it cost so much. So do we just blame a pandemic or do we question how a government handles a pandemic? Every move on the part of any government and leader is going to be scrutinized and questioned and people will want believable answers. Well at least smart people will want answers.

Ron

This is a global problem from socialist dictatorships to liberal democracies. Focusing on national and local governments is IMO short sided because the base economic factors that started this cycle didn't change because of ideology or normal ECON 101 factors. What happened was the equivalent of alien contact that rippled around the world with pretty much the same set of responses from each sovereign nation. Isolate from the supply chain and reengage. I don't expect this rough period of supply chain engagement to last too long if government keeps their hands off the process and lets the chips realign. There is a debate about that.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/econom...nt-inflation-and-why-it-might-be-here-to-stay

Why there’s no easy fix
In other words, there’s no end to the supply chain problems. Consumer demand is only going to increase through the holiday season and beyond. And that’s why inflation isn’t going away anytime soon.

Corporate executives – who in many ways will determine whether prices keep rising at a fast clip – are already warning that all of these challenges are going to continue into 2022 at the earliest. Some say the problems will extend into 2023 as well.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in October expect inflation to slow to 3.4% next summer and hit 2.6% by the end of the year. While that would be encouraging, it’s still well above the pre-pandemic average of 1.8% and outside the Fed’s target. It’s unclear whether economists are recalibrating their expectations after the October Consumer Price Index report.

Regardless, consumers should get used to the higher prices. They’re the new normal.

 

I don't expect this rough period of supply chain engagement to last too long if government keeps their hands off the process and lets the chips realign. There is a debate about that.

Well we agree there but looking at the whole US economic picture I wish I could agree with you as to an early end. I simply do not see it happening not with things as they currently are. Then too, I hope for the best. I feel for those in much worse positions than my wife and I are.

Ron

 

Well we agree there but looking at the whole US economic picture I wish I could agree with you as to an early end. I simply do not see it happening not with things as they currently are. Then too, I hope for the best. I feel for those in much worse positions than my wife and I are.

Ron

What's missing is involuntary high unemployment. So far there is a also a crazy tight labor market because the country is actually flush with cash (that businesses are jacking up pricing to get) due to the pandemic conditions. I'm having some roof and remodeling work done on the house. It's impossible, at any price, to get skilled labor on the job with the correct materials on short notice. I was on the work schedule for months before things started rolling.

 

I'm having some roof and remodeling work done on the house. It's impossible, at any price, to get skilled labor on the job with the correct materials on short notice. I was on the work schedule for months before things started rolling.

I can relate to that. Bathroom downstairs developed a ceiling leak from upstairs bathroom. Four inch 75 year old cast iron pipe. So I figure we may as well think about just remodeling the whole thing. My days for drywall and ceilings is long over so we start getting quotes on this 50 square foot small bathroom. I priced materials at Lowe's and Home Depot and for high end stuff really nice materials I get to almost $4,000. We are getting quotes of $20,000 and there is no way I am paying 16K for a few days of basic labor.

Friend mentioned homeowners so I figure why not. While USAA won't cover the plumbing they will cover the both kitchen and bathroom ceilings and I won't fault them for not covering a 75 year old cast iron pipe. Hell with ceilings done I will do the rest. Anyway yes, average quotes were 19K to 20K. The cast iron pipe was cut out and new PVC installed which was a heck of a job but it's done. Fortunately it was only a 2 week wait on the plumbing and it will be about 4 to 5 weeks on the rest covered by insurance. Yes, good skilled labor is in short supply. I have no idea where all the skilled labor went?

Ron

 

I'm pulling some from insurance too for what will be a exterior refresh on a 1978 house. The total bid price is more than the place originally sold for but the street cost of the house is now 4X the price I paid in 2000 for it. Inflation can be your friend even if time isn't.

 

 

I'm pulling some from insurance too for what will be a exterior refresh on a 1978 house. The total bid price is more than the place originally sold for but the street cost of the house is now 4X the price I paid in 2000 for it. Inflation can be your friend even if time isn't.

Some of you know I’ve been doing projects on my property, I say projects because it’s what I do, start them and continue, push this one forward, then stop and do the next, stop and repeat. Drives people mad, I say when you own my property or want to foot the bill for it to complete then shut the fu……..up and move along. My street is a State Road but, it’s a cross road to the main road in town, but it’s one of those streets many people use to get back and forth from one side of town to the other.

That said, ok.
I don’t mind the traffic as much as your prying eye’s that say look at this yard. I see them in my mind like this: comments like “marybell” it’s disgusting, no lawn just dirt and weeds.
I say:
Well thats what happens when you use heavy equipment to install new water line, then tear out tree’s and install a sprinkling system, now at first I was going to go with lawn in the front just like everyone else, then pay the un-godly amount the city for water to beautify their neighborhood, just so those doing their daily walk can see me be like everyone else manicured, lawn tight little neat property, while they can say to themselves “Look Marybell” the neighborhood watch committee has reigned in another one of those people who think they can do what ever they want without our say so. Ya, they sent me a letter letting me know I would be charged by the city $50 a day for not following guidlines set forth by the city planning commission who by the way are controlled by “Marybell and her buddies”

[Rant]
So, they said no shipping containers, ordinance No Shipping Containers on Residential Property, you cannot park vehicles on dirt, they must be parked on driveway, in addition, 50 percent of the yard must be landscaped, live plant or lawn. Contact us at bla bla bla bla if you have any questions.
Continued: I had until Nov 11th to move the container, truck, and landscape my property, after contacting said entity to discuss this matter they said after I said there is no way you can serve me notice to be compliant by Nov11th, he said we are not going to fine you if you have a plan, Hmmn, I said ok, I’ve always had a plan there was never not a plan, he said and what would that be and when can we expect it to be completed.

I said, I’ve spent $13 thousand dollars on home improvement both inside and outside thus far, and for those people “who want” my home beautified on the outside, I have paid out of pocket for said expenses, I refuse to go into debt for those expenses, they can do what ever they want I don’t care but as for me and my home, we will do it my way not theirs. I will be compliant but I will pay out of pocket in time it will improve, I will keep the weed down, which as you can see they are not out of control, I will move my truck to the back of my house, no problem no one can see it any longer on the side of my home, no longer visible in anyway from the street.

As pertaining my Shipping Container, what is the legalities, can I cover it and make it look like a shed? He said you will need to speak to “Developmental Services” about that I just have to follow city ordinances, “I called them yesterday, I asked I’m to speak with you about my shipping container, I would like to cover it so it no longer appears to be a container, but the beauty of the container I can move it anywhere on my property but a shed I cannot. (Keep in mind, ordinance says I can build a shed without a permit if it’s 200sqft) She said that would be the city planning commission to decide that.

Last time I spoke with them, I had a regulator a women she knew every ordinance compliancy regulation in the book by heart. Snooty opinionated and down right rude. I thought to myself, it’s over, no way am I going to convince them I can cover it and make it compliant, but our conversation went like this.

Me: Can I bla bla bla my shipping container.

Her: Shipping container, is it residential?

Me: yes

Her: No

Me: But, I can build a shed 200sqft without a permit right?

Her: yes.

Me: So, I can build it anyway I want as long as it’s a shed, right?

Her: yes.

Me: And your saying I can’t make my shipping container look like a shed, but it’s ok to build a shed that looks like a shipping container (because I don’t need a permit or approved drawings) the only difference is I can’t move it, it’s a permanent structure, right?

Her: yes.

Me: I’m going to build a shed, that looks exactly like a shipping container.

Her: She said fine then just cover it but, It can’t be over 200sqft and cannot have electrical or be near utility lines, easements.

Me: I thought, how did you know I was near a Utility or needed to build away from them, the only way that is possible is your one of those people near me, who are a pain in the rear.

Me: I won’t run electrical to it, I will cover the outside of the container so it will not look like a shipping container and will not be near any easements. Thereby I will be compliant to city ordinance's.

Her: Well, make sure you don’t, and will inspect you property for any violations.

Me: In my mind, I said: Ya, B……………and there you have it, smell what I’m saying, feel me now, take your opinionated noise, and your friends away from my house and leave me the F, alone, B.

However, my plan was never to cover it, and make it look like a shed, no. It was to cover yes, in solar panels, I say spend money as long as you can get a return, .gov tax right offs, sell power back to the utilities, craft a design that utilizes my skills detachable piece on one side, it will be able to roll away from the container, sectionals on the roof, the doors will be wood barn style, on the slanted side I will be able to store my lawn mower, tiller, snowblower, hang all my oil and gas, on the outside of the container under the panels, increasing storage abilities, F, her and everyone else I own this property, my home my dwelling, when you pay my rent then tell me what to do otherwise get to steppin.

[End/Rant]

kv

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/oth...price-point-to-become-new-standard/ar-AAR2CvB

After 35 years of selling goods for a buck, Dollar Tree is boosting its standard price point to $1.25 by the end of April, the company said in a statement Tuesday. While the decision is “not a reaction to short-term or transitory market conditions,” Dollar Tree acknowledged the inflationary environment and said the price boost will help mitigate historically high costs, including freight and distribution expenses, as well as wage increases.

“Lifting the one-dollar constraint represents a monumental step for our organization,” Chief Executive Officer Michael Witynski said in the statement. The move will allow Dollar Tree to expand its product assortment and reintroduce some items that were pulled due to the $1 constraint.

 

There's no shortage of thieves.

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2...hayward-mall-lululemon-store-san-jose-robbed/

HAYWARD (CBS SF) — Looters targeting Bay Area businesses struck again Sunday evening, with smash-and-grab thieves hitting the Southland Mall in Hayward and suspects taking merchandise from a Lululemon store in San Jose.

Hayward police told KPIX they responded around 5:30 p.m. Sunday to multiple calls from stores in Southland Mall.

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2...in-wake-of-retail-smash-and-grab-crime-spree/

LIVERMORE (KPIX) — A violent smash-and-grab robbery spree targeting retail shops across the Bay Area has shoppers, store employees and business owners on edge at the start the holiday shopping season.

 

During protest, more like rioting, the only businesses not hit were those with armed citizens protecting their hard earned property. Smash and grab has become a new "normal".

Ron

 

During protest, more like rioting, the only businesses not hit were those with armed citizens protecting their hard earned property. Smash and grab has become a new "normal".

Ron

Seems there get away vehicles are vulnerable, I’ve been thinking how to mark them, if you only knew where they were going to hit but when they’re in packs 60+ people all at the same time, it’s a crap shoot.

Speaking of shooting non-lethal like ghost busters sort of gun that shoots a type of silly string all over the car, heck I don’t know. Just putting a little effort into it. If you armed the security guard or individuals in the store, come out and cover the sh……load like a single shot burst, even a type of confetti 2 or 3 bursts, if they come at you shoot them lol

kv

 

I walked down the sidewalk at a local strip mall today. Every store has a help wanted sign. most offering $15/hr plus some other extra like free coffee, free lunch, time-and-a-half Saturdays and Sundays, overnight stocking shifts at $20/hr.

One pizza delivery place offered use of company vehicle to deliver the pizzas, gas, $15/hr and keep 100% of tips.

 

Very strange times that we're living at the moment ... inflation, shortages, and an over 50 year old low on unemployment:

Jobless claims plunge to their lowest level in 52 years
​

 

Very strange times that we're living at the moment ... inflation, shortages, and an over 50 year old low on unemployment:

Jobless claims plunge to their lowest level in 52 years
​

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/demandpullinflation.asp
What Is Demand-Pull Inflation?
Demand-pull inflation is the upward pressure on prices that follows a shortage in supply, a condition that economists describe as "too many dollars chasing too few goods."

 

https://nypost.com/2021/11/26/canada-releases-50-million-pounds-from-maple-syrup-stockpile/

Canadians to tap their emergency stockpile of maple syrup amid a major shortage of the sweet stuff.

The Quebec Maple Syrup Producers is a government-sponsored cartel that controls some 70 percent of the world’s maple syrup supply and is sometimes compared to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ grip on oil.

The consortium of more than 11,000 Canadian maple syrup producers said this week that a warmer- and shorter-than-expected spring led to a 24 percent year-over-drop in production of the pancake topping.

The Canadian maple syrup mafia.

https://time.com/4760432/maple-syrup-heist-prison-fine/

A Canadian man who led the 2012 heist of millions of dollars worth of maple syrup received an eight-year prison sentence and multi-million dollar fine on Friday.

Richard Vallières was fined $9.4 million, and will have to serve six additional years in prison if he does not pay it, for the theft of $18.7 million worth of maple syrup, the CBC reports. The 2012 theft involved taking 3,000 tons of maple syrup from a warehouse that belonged to the Federation of Quebec Maple Syrup Producers, which regulates the syrup trade.

Officials realized the maple syrup was missing in July 2012 when they found dozens of barrels filled with water instead of syrup.

 

Take your intentional posting of political 'truth' to another forum or posting. It's not wanted in this one.

Are political opinions banned in Off-Topic discussion about Inflation?

 

Are political opinions banned in Off-Topic discussion about Inflation?

Yes. If you can't handle that limitation then don't post in this thread.

 

Yes.

I can’t find that in rules and TOS. How do you expect people to follow them if they keep changing?

here are the links to the rules
Terms and rules:
https://forum.allaboutcircuits.com/help/terms/

User Agreement:
https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/user-agreement/

 

@nsaspook, I know you’re intelligent, so I will assume you already know this, but the government is a Huge factor in economics, and when it controls money supply and federal rates, you can’t ignore it. My money is printed by our government. If you read Keynesian economics you can’t ignore the role government has.