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Glad I'm not a passenger
- Thread starter cmartinez
- Start date
I don't know what the laws might have been back then (or what they are now, for that matter). But, from a practical standpoint, how do you prevent someone that records radio transmissions from releasing them? You might have rules saying that parties that have access to those recordings as part of their routine duties (like ATC or the FBI or NTSB) can't release them, but in the day of everything being recorded by tens of thousands (or millions) of people with a receiver and internet connection, it's pretty much impossible to prevent.
I have no idea if this guy's data and simulation is accurate or not, but I find it amazing such a "recreation" can be done less than 24 hours after the crash. AI powered?
Read the whole thread for more detail.
Read the whole thread for more detail.
The narration definitely sounds like AI. As for the simulation and video, that may or may not be. Tools have been around for a long time to take flight data (from sources such as FlightAware) and create animations like that, even in real time.
Interesting that the event lasted 76 seconds. There was a paper that the FAA came out with some three decades ago titled 73 seconds to live. Though there's no indication that the scenario applies, it had to do with how long it took for a non-instrument rated pilot that flew into instrument condition to crash. The did it with actual planes and pilots (with a safety pilot that took control once it was clear that the pilot wasn't going to be able to recover) and, on average, it was 73 seconds. It also included some of the hallmarks here, such as the steepening bank angle such that attempts to pull out only tighten the spiral. This is known as a death spiral and, while the initiating cause (spatial disorientation) was unlikely to be a factor here, the mechanics as things degraded may have been, either because the pilot was panicking (and who wouldn't) and neglecting basic airmanship or, my guess, that the aircraft was unable to respond to all of the control inputs. I don't know how a blocked air probe might have contributed. That's usually something where the pilots or autopilot, is making poor control inputs based on faulty data, which doesn't seem very likely here. But on that aircraft, it's possible the data from the probes are actively involved in control manipulation in a way that could have contributed.
Interesting that the event lasted 76 seconds. There was a paper that the FAA came out with some three decades ago titled 73 seconds to live. Though there's no indication that the scenario applies, it had to do with how long it took for a non-instrument rated pilot that flew into instrument condition to crash. The did it with actual planes and pilots (with a safety pilot that took control once it was clear that the pilot wasn't going to be able to recover) and, on average, it was 73 seconds. It also included some of the hallmarks here, such as the steepening bank angle such that attempts to pull out only tighten the spiral. This is known as a death spiral and, while the initiating cause (spatial disorientation) was unlikely to be a factor here, the mechanics as things degraded may have been, either because the pilot was panicking (and who wouldn't) and neglecting basic airmanship or, my guess, that the aircraft was unable to respond to all of the control inputs. I don't know how a blocked air probe might have contributed. That's usually something where the pilots or autopilot, is making poor control inputs based on faulty data, which doesn't seem very likely here. But on that aircraft, it's possible the data from the probes are actively involved in control manipulation in a way that could have contributed.
If it lofted lots of moisture from a much lower altitude, that could result in very rapid accumulation of ice. That still seems unlikely to have caused the kind of near immediate transition from a calm situation to total loss of control. But that same convective cell that could cause that kind of lofting would also likely cause very strong vertical wind shears that could have resulted in structural damage; tail sections tend to be more vulnerable than the rest of the plane on most aircraft. I'm still leaning in that direction.
So you're saying there's a possibility that the culprit might have not been the ice, but a sudden vertical wind shear? ... or maybe both?
That's what I'm leaning toward, and I've been saying it from the beginning, especially now that they are saying that they found pieces of the elevator miles from the crash site. Ice buildup can readily cause loss of control, but it usually doesn't cause structural failure (but it can). Wind sheer can cause immediate and catastrophic structural failure, particularly on the empennage.
We may never know for sure, but since they found the pieces of the elevator, they can examine the damage patterns and may be able to determine which is more likely.
The copilot was really pursuing her dream of being a professional pilot. She got her pilot's license before her driver's license. Having been a unit commander in Civil Air Patrol, I've seen a small handful of young people that were so motivated. One person in particular, soloed on his 16th birthday, got his private pilot's license and his instrument rating on his 17th birthday, and then his commercial pilot's license and his flight instructor's certificate, including for instrument instruction, on his 18th birthday. I lost track of him after that, but he had every intention of getting his airline transport pilot's license on his 23rd birthday. These are all the minimum ages for those rating. It certainly helped in his case that his dad was a CFI and his mom was an assistant manager of the base aeroclub.
As tragic as her early death was (along with the other eight people, including two small children), her family at least has the knowledge that she died doing something she passionately loved, which is not something that can be said of very many people.
